Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club on the PGA Tour as Steve Palmer bids to follow up a 25-1 winner after Scottie Scheffler's Phoenix Open triumph.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 2.30pm Thursday

Best bets

Dustin Johnson
4pts each-way 16-1 general

Collin Morikawa
2.5pts each-way 18-1 general

Viktor Hovland
2pts each-way 28-1 Hills

Sam Burns
1.5pts each-way 35-1 bet365

Joaquin Niemann
1pt each-way 60-1 bet365

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The strongest Genesis Invitational in history starts on Thursday - the top ten players in the world are all in attendance for the first time - and it is questionable whether anybody in the field should be a single-figure price for victory.

Jon Rahm is the only one who is - with 9-1 the best offer about the world number one - and the Spaniard can just about be resisted at the odds. He must be massively respected, given his superb record in California and his suitability to Riviera Country Club, but he sparkled only in short bursts in Phoenix last week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Dustin Johnson 16-1

Not long ago, Dustin Johnson was the dominant force in golf - well clear atop the world rankings and cruising to a second Major title in the Masters at the end of 2020 - and all the talk was about how long his reign as king would last.

Motivation seemed to wane, though, once Johnson claimed his Green Jacket, and he starts this week as world number six after a lean spell. But recent signs have been encouraging for DJ fans and there seems every chance he uses one of his favourite tournaments to get back to winning ways on Sunday.

The Ryder Cup could prove a turning point for Johnson. As the senior player on a young American team, the 37-year-old had a huge role to perform, and he did it superbly, winning all five of his matches, becoming only the fifth man in history to secure maximum points in the Ryder Cup.

The close-season provided a chance to reflect on that Whistling Straits glory and fully recharge his batteries - and Johnson made his first start of 2022 in the Farmers Insurance Open. Torrey Pines is an intimidating venue at which to shed rust, but Johnson struck his ball surprisingly well to finish tied for 25th place.

Next time out, Johnson was again thrilled with his ball-striking en route to eighth place in the Saudi International, and his third start of the year comes at a course which is perfect for him.

Johnson's power-fade off the tee is the ideal shot-shape for Riviera and his form figures from his last eight starts there are 2-2-4-1-16-9-10-8. His 2017 victory was by a five-shot margin. DJ has won three PGA Tour titles in California and should put on a show for his backers again.

Next best bet

Collin Morikawa 18-1

Another player who hits nothing but faded drives off the tee, making him a prime candidate for Riviera success, is Collin Morikawa. The Los Angeles-born 25-year-old is competing in his home city this week and he relishes competition in the Golden State.

California was where Morikawa became a Major champion when winning the 2020 US PGA in San Francisco. He tees up at home this week as a two-time Major winner who is stalking top spot in the world rankings.

Morikawa is acutely aware of what a fantastic opportunity Riviera provides - he took a fortnight off after 18th place in the Dubai Desert Classic to prepare for the Genesis - and the Open champ seems a rock-solid investment on a track which fully rewards his tee-to-green class.

Other selections

Viktor Hovland 28-1

Sam Burns 35-1

Joaquin Niemann 60-1

Viktor Hovland was unsettled with his driver in the early stages of the Phoenix Open last week, finding water at his second hole, playing catch-up from the off. His team at PING had made some slight alterations to the face of the club prior to the tournament and the Norwegian seemed to need time to adjust. He was better in round two, making four birdies, but a calamitous triple-bogey eight at the 15th hole left him shy of the cut-line.

Hovland can bounce back immediately. He likes playing in California, where he won the 2018 US Amateur Championship in emphatic fashion, and he was second in last year's Farmers Insurance Open. More importantly, Hovland was fifth on his Genesis Invitational debut, and this natural fader will be licking his lips at Riviera again.

Sam Burns is another who can be expected to quickly recover from a small wobble. Burns followed a missed cut in the Farmers Insurance with another weekend off in Phoenix, but he was only one shot shy of the qualifying mark at TPC Scottsdale and will not be panicking.

Burns was five shots clear at the halfway stage of last year's Genesis, then two shots ahead with 18 holes to play, before finishing third. Crucially, he was a PGA Tour maiden at the time, but the 25-year-old has since gone on to win twice - he is a much more confident soul - and would be better equipped to take a winning chance on Sunday.

Complete a strong, five-pronged attack with Joaquin Niemann, another who prefers to shape his shots from left to right - his low, bullet-fades setting him up superbly for success at Riviera. The Chilean impressed at Riviera in the 2017 US Amateur, finishing sixth in the strokeplay element of the competition, before playing well in the knockout stages but losing to an inspired Braden Thornberry.

Niemann contended to halfway in last year's Genesis and can make an impact this year after two encouraging 2022 spins. Sixth place in the Farmers Insurance was followed by eighth in the Saudi International. He is a former world number one amateur who is still only 23.

Players to note

Hideki Matsuyama
The Sony Open champion is buzzing this year, putting better than ever, and he must be hugely respected at a suitable course on which he has a solid record.

Brooks Koepka
The faded drives of the cocksure Floridian are a useful tool this week. His putter was purring in Phoenix last week and he can contend at Riv if he can be tidier off the tee.

Francesco Molinari
The Italian lives in Los Angeles and is a Riviera member. His troublesome back seems to be alright and the former Open champ could run into a place at healthy odds.

Thomas Pieters
The Belgian bomber won a prestigious amateur competition at Riviera in 2012, then finished runner-up in the 2017 Genesis. A dangerman after his Abu Dhabi triumph.

Riviera course guide

Course Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles, California
Prize money $12m ($2.16m to the winner)
Length 7,332 yards
Par 71 - three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 120 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players taking part (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (1), Collin Morikawa (2), Patrick Cantlay (3), Viktor Hovland (4), Rory McIlroy (5)

Course records- 72 holes 264 Lanny Wadkins (1985) 18 holes 61 Ted Tryba (1991)

Course winners taking part Adam Scott (twice), Bubba Watson (three times), James Hahn, Dustin Johnson, Max Homa

When to bet By 2.30pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 2.30pm Thursday

Time difference California is eight hours behind UK and Ireland

Last week - Phoenix Open 1 S Scheffler (25-1), 2 P Cantlay (14-1), T3 X Schauffele (22-1), S Theegala (225-1), B Koepka (33-1), T6 B Horschel (66-1), A Noren (140-1), T8 J Thomas (12-1), H Matsuyama (18-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Riviera has been used for this event (formerly the Los Angeles Open, Nissan Open, Northern Trust Open and Genesis Open) every year since 1973 apart from 1983 and 1998. The 1995 US PGA and the 2017 US Amateur were also at Riviera. It has always been known as a faders' paradise, favouring the left-to-right shot-shape. Tom Fazio gently redesigned the track in 2008. The lush kikuyu grass rough can be penal and there are lots of doglegs. The tenth hole is a classic risk-reward driveable par four, which sees eagles as well as triple-bogeys. The 467-yard par-four 12th is the most difficult hole

Story of last year Max Homa saw off Tony Finau in a playoff, securing a second PGA Tour title

Weather forecast Sunny, with temperatures around 21C, and only gentle breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge Quality ball-strikers with sharp strategies typically prevail at Riviera, and punters should concentrate on players who have plenty of course experience, preferably faders

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight Seventeen of the last 21 Riviera winners ranked inside the top ten for greens in regulation on their way to winning

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