Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational final-round preview, best bets, free tips

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 6pm Sunday

Best bets

Dustin Johnson to win threeball
3pts 10-11 general

Marc Leishman to win threeball
1pt 8-5 Betfred

Story so far

Three players are tied for the lead going into the final round of the Genesis Invitational in California – a trio which is headlined by the world number one Rory McIlroy.

A third-round 68 was enough for McIlroy to move alongside halfway pacesetter Matt Kuchar at ten under par, while Adam Scott claimed a share of the lead with a birdie at the 18th hole.

McIlroy, 15-2 ante-post and 9-4 after two rounds, has shortened further to become a general 13-8 for a first victory at Riviera Country Club. Kuchar is a best-priced 13-2, while Scott is a 7-2 chance across the board.

Former Riviera champion Dustin Johnson is lurking just two shots behind in a share of sixth place, while the high-class threesome of Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Hideki Matsuyama are four shots off the pace on a congested leaderboard.

Leaderboard
-10 Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar, Rory McIlroy
-9 Russell Henley, Harold Varner
-8 Joel Dahmen, Dustin Johnson
-7 Max Homa, Talor Gooch, Sung Kang
-6 Luke List, Scott Brown, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Wyndham Clark, Hideki Matsuyama

Best prices
13-8 R McIlroy, 7-2 A Scott, 13-2 M Kuchar, 15-2 D Johnson, 18 H Varner, R Henley, 33 J Rahm, 35 J Dahmen, 50 H Matsuyama, M Homa, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Rory McIlroy was a recommendation at 9-4 at the halfway stage of the Genesis Invitational and confidence remains high in the four-times Major champion. He dropped only one shot in round three and his swing appears in mint condition.

Matt Kuchar wobbled in the middle of the back nine and the 41-year-old, winless Stateside for 13 months, may struggle to keep close order on his illustrious playing partner for another 18 holes.

Weather forecasts early in the week suggested Sunday may be windy, but the predictions have changed through the tournament and another sunny, calm day seems in the offing. It is difficult to see McIlroy being knocked out of his stride.

Adam Scott loves Riviera and always expects to play well in this event, but he has never triumphed at the track over 72 holes, and his putting frailties mean only the Australian's biggest fans can be bullish about him beating a buzzing McIlroy in a shootout from a level start.

Since Scott's last PGA Tour victory, McIlroy has won seven PGA Tour titles, including the Tour Championship twice, the Players Championship and a WGC, and twice ended the season as FedEx Cup champion.

The penultimate group on the tee features two PGA Tour maidens – Harold Varner and Joel Dahmen – and Russell Henley. The 2017 Houston Open was Henley's last PGA Tour success and he arrived at Riviera this week off the back of five consecutive missed cuts.

The final threeball is obviously likely to produce the champion – with McIlroy strongly favoured in that trio – but Dustin Johnson (15-2) and Hideki Matsuyama (50-1) are fairly priced options for punters looking for bigger than a 13-8 favourite.

Johnson, runaway Riviera victor in 2017, has spent a fortnight carrying a generally cold putter, but an eagle at the 17th hole in round three propelled him into the thick of things for Sunday. If a few putts drop early in the final round, DJ could be the man to upset the final threeball.

Matsuyama is only four shots behind, despite missing six putts of ten feet or shorter in round two, including two of four feet or shorter. The Japanese ace three-putted from 22 feet at the seventh hole in round three and is one of the most frustrating players in the game to support, but his magnificent ball-striking makes him a contender on tough tracks like Riviera. He could follow up his Saturday 64 with another low effort on Sunday to threaten the places.

Final-round threeball backers are pointed towards Johnson, who can outclass Max Homa and Talor Gooch in the 6.24pm (UK and Ireland time) contest, while Marc Leishman is worth considering against Brooks Koepka and Cameron Tringale (5pm).

Aside from a shocking three-putt from two feet and eight inches at the 11th hole in round two, Leishman has looked close to the form which won him the Farmers Insurance Open last time out, and Riviera suits him well.

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