Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Sunday

Best bets

Viktor Hovland without Joaquin Niemann and Cameron Young
3pts 12-5 bet365

Hideki Matsuyama to win 4.57pm threeball
2pts 11-10 general

Story so far

Joaquin Niemann is a general 2-5 for Genesis Invitational glory after following his back-to-back rounds of 63 with a solid Saturday 68 to take a three-shot lead into Sunday.

Niemann set a new three-round Riviera scoring record with his 19-under-par total - and the 23-year-old Chilean has the 72-hole mark in his sights. Lanny Wadkins' 20-under-par effort has stood since 1985, but will be beaten with a 69 or better from Niemann in round four.

Niemann, 75-1 at the start of the week, teed off a well-backed 55-1 chance and was a general 11-10 favourite after going 16 under par through his opening 36 holes. His lone PGA Tour victory was by a six-shot margin in the 2019 Greenbrier - and the former world number one amateur is looking to deliver another frontrunning exhibition at Riviera.

This week's Los Angeles venue has never been a pushover - six under par was enough for a playoff place in 2015 - but Niemann has overwhelmed Riviera with sensational iron-play and a purring short-game.

PGA Tour maiden Cameron Young is alone in second place, with Viktor Hovland a further three shots behind in third spot.

Leaderboard
-19 Joaquin Niemann
-16 Cameron Young
-13 Viktor Hovland
-12 Justin Thomas
-11 Collin Morikawa

Best prices
2-5 J Niemann, 9-2 C Young, 9 V Hovland, 20J Thomas, 40 C Morikawa, 125 bar

Final-round preview

Joaquin Niemann's form dipped in round three, but there was only one way to go given the magnificence of his Thursday and Friday work, and a Saturday 68 was an excellent score in the circumstances.

Niemann has led all week and Saturday was arguably his toughest assignment. Having carded a 78 on the Saturday of last year's Genesis, any sort of wobble in round three this time would have encouraged his playing partners Cameron Young and Justin Thomas. On a drying course, with the pressure of frontrunning in front of noisy Los Angeles galleries, Niemann showed great composure to move further ahead.

Niemann won his lone PGA Tour title from the front and victory number two could be coming in the same fashion. The 23-year-old was a pre-tournament Racing Post Sport recommendation at 60-1, so hopes are high of a healthy return.

Viktor Hovland (28-1) and Collin Morikawa (18-1) were also in Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament staking plan and recommended as each-way investments, so punters with three of the top five players on the leaderboard onside can be on comfortable terms with themselves. Backing the two members of the top five who are not in the team - Young and Thomas - will be a straightforward covering tactic for many at odds of 9-2 and 20-1.

Young is a promising player - a slugger blessed with immense power who is putting much better than he normally does this week. This would be a huge tournament for the New Yorker to make his PGA Tour breakthrough, but from only three shots behind it is entirely feasible.

Thomas given himself a mountain to climb from seven shots behind, but when his putter cooperates the former world number one is capable of incredible rounds. Last month Thomas carded a 61 in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and a 63 in the Farmers Insurance Open.

Hopefully Niemann, Hovland and Morikawa perform to the finish, but small stakes on Young and Thomas may help cement a winning position. A serious Niemann struggle would probably be required for the gang at ten under par to have a chance.

Punters seeking extra non-outright investments are pointed towards Hovland in the betting without Niemann and Young market. Bet365 have dangled what seems a massive price about the leader in this market - 12-5 Hovland.

It may not be long before the 24-year-old is world number one. Hovland's ball-striking is of a standard that could easily see him become the top dog soon. His temperament seems superior to that of Jon Rahm's. Expect Hovland to finish the Genesis strongly.

Hovland may well overtake Young and finish runner-up to Niemann, but the 12-5 with Niemann and Young out of the picture seems golden.

Hideki Matsuyama has improved with every round of the Genesis and the Masters champ is the most appealing final-round threeball option against Aaron Rai and Jhonattan Vegas (4.57pm UK and Ireland time).

Niemann, Young and Hovland tee off at 6.25pm. Another sunny, calm day is forecast.

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