Steve Palmer's Farmers Insurance Open preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm Thursday

Best bets

Tiger Woods
3pts each-way 11-1 Betfred
Xander Schauffele
2.5pts each-way 18-1 Betfair
Nick Watney
0.5pt each-way 150-1 Betfair, Power, Sky Bet

Rory McIlroy is sticking to the same policy he started last year, skipping the European Tour's Middle East events in preference for PGA Tour action in California, and the Northern Irishman is clear favourite for his opening outing of 2020.

Given how well last year went and the extra level of consistency McIlroy found, it is not surprising that he is planning a similar schedule, and a spring US PGA in California may have also influenced his loyalty to the West Coast.

McIlroy finished fifth on his Torrey Pines debut last year, but that was with the benefit of a spin in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This time, having not competed since November 24, the short price against his name can be left alone.

McIlroy can go world number one with a victory this week. Jon Rahm entered this event with the same carrot in 2018, buckling at the weekend after a bright start, and the desperation of McIlroy to reclaim what he sees as his rightful place atop the rankings could hinder performance. Rory and Rahm must be respected this week, but neither appeals at the skinny prices.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Tiger Woods 11-1

This is a top-class field bursting with star quality – and decent cases can be made for many of the market principals – but the greatest of them all has the most impressive Torrey Pines credentials. Tiger Woods can start 2020 with a bang by setting a new record for most PGA Tour victories.

Woods drew level with Sam Snead when winning the Zozo Championship at the end of October – his 82nd PGA Tour triumph – and he can overtake Snead in the Farmers Insurance Open on Sunday. Since returning from knee surgery, Woods has been generally awesome, and hopes are high that the 44-year-old can be a huge factor in the most prestigious gatherings this season.

There seems a strong possibility that the short post-Masters slump which Woods suffered last year was down to the state of his knee. Following his Augusta glory in April, he played only six more tournaments, lacking comfort in all of them. His form since going under the knife, though, has been sensational and bodes well for the Farmers.

After more than two months on the sidelines recovering from his operation, Woods returned to win the high-class Zozo by three shots, then contended in the Hero World Challenge before finishing fourth. The following week, he captained his country for the first time, guiding the States to Presidents Cup success while contributing three points from his three matches as a player.

The consensus from his teammates was that Tiger was a magnificent skipper both on and off the course at Royal Melbourne – he closed with a 3&2 triumph over Abraham Ancer in the singles – so 2019 ended on an almighty high for the 15-times Major champ.

A theme in his three events since the cartilage damage in his left knee was sorted is how well he has been performing off the tee. A long course such as Torrey Pines South is an intimidating layout for anyone lacking confidence in their driving, but Woods has been superb with the Big Dog in hand of late. On the evidence of Japan, the Bahamas and Australia, Tiger is ready to set himself up well on the long holes at Torrey, laying solid foundations for showing off his ever-magnificent iron-play.

Tiger's Torrey record is peerless – eight victories, including a US Open – his last win coming by a four-shot margin in 2013. The recent driving improvements have made the Cypress-born legend a serious threat in his home state again.

Next best bet

Xander Schauffele 18-1

A pair of Californians could be fighting out the finish on Sunday night – San Diego man Xander Schauffele may prove the main obstacle to Woods. Schauffele was kicking himself after letting a golden winning opportunity slip in the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the start of the year, eventually losing to Justin Thomas in a playoff, but rapid redemption could come in his home city.

Three of his last six starts have resulted in second place to a superstar – McIlroy edged him in the Tour Championship and the WGC-HSBC Champions, before Thomas pinched the Sentry – and there is nothing to worry about regarding Schauffele's mental strength. He remains one of the toughest competitors in the sport, as Adam Scott found to his cost in the Presidents Cup singles, and the run of near-misses should end soon enough.

Early Farmers forays, as an inexperienced youngster lowly in the world rankings, went understandably badly for Schauffele, then a missed cut by a shot in 2018 could be put down to him adjusting to new clubs. Last year's share of 25th place came courtesy of four under-par rounds, but expect a serious title tilt this time from a player whose tee-to-green solidity is made for US Open venues like Torrey Pines South. His US Open record is 5-6-3, the latest effort coming in his home state last summer.

Other selection

Nick Watney 150-1

Pick of the outsiders may be Nick Watney, who won this event in 2009 when ranked 184th in the world. He is fractionally higher in the rankings this week, showing glimpses of the form which once made him the tenth best player on the planet.

Watney, who was born in California and went to college there, is a five-time PGA Tour champion, including a WGC and a FedEx Cup playoffs event. He has posted six top-tens in the Farmers and possesses the length off the tee to handle the ever extending South.

Second place in the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship showed that he could still hack it on long, tough layouts, and tenth place in the Safeway Open at the end of September hinted that California is still a place that can bring out the best in him. Watney closed 2019 with 14th spot in the RSM Classic and opened 2020 with 29th in The American Express, so there has been enough encouragement to take the massive odds for the Farmers.

Players to note

Hideki Matsuyama
The toughest name to scrape from the staking plan is the Japanese number one, who shrugged off a poor Sony Open record and a terrible first round to finish 12th in Hawaii last time out. He was third in the Farmers last year and seems likely to contend again, but is winless since the 2017 Bridgestone.

Gary Woodland
The US Open champion could follow up his Pebble Beach heroics with a first Farmers title. He has featured regularly on the Torrey leaderboard, but has not been at his best in recent outings, including a poor Presidents Cup.

Maverick McNealy
The Californian youngster is looking increasingly settled on the PGA Tour and has another opportunity to show off how he became the number one amateur in the world.

Brandon Wu
Another rising star from the Golden State may be worth chancing at fancy prices. Talent could overcome inexperience.

Emiliano Grillo
The Argentinian had success at Torrey Pines as a junior and is well equipped to handle the South from tee to green. He could run into a place at healthy odds.

Collin Morikawa
The Sony Open started well and ended badly for the Californian, who can boast a rock-solid tee-to-green game. He can be expected to bounce back with a strong performance in his home state.

Torrey Pines courses guide

Courses Torrey Pines South and North, La Jolla, San Diego, California
Prize money $7.5m ($1.278m to the winner)
Length South 7,765 yards, North 7,258 yards
Par Both 72
Field 156
Course records- 72 holes 266 George Burns (1987), Tiger Woods (1999) 18 holes South 62 Tiger Woods (1999), North 61 Mark Brooks (1990), Brandt Snedeker (2007)

Course winners taking part Phil Mickelson (three times), Tiger Woods (eight times) Nick Watney, Bubba Watson, Brandt Snedeker (twice), Scott Stallings, Jason Day (twice), Jon Rahm, Justin Rose

When to bet By 5pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm Thursday

Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - The American Express 1 A Landry (200-1), 2 A Ancer (40-1), 3 S Scheffler (35-1), T4 B Cauley (90-1), S Straka (300-1), T6 S Burns (400-1), T Hoge (200-1), S Cappelen (400-1), R Moore (50-1)

Course overview Formerly the Buick Invitational, this tournament has been played at Torrey Pines since 1968. The South, opened in 1957, was redesigned and toughened up by Rees Jones in 2001 to make it worthy of staging the 2008 US Open, which was won by Tiger Woods in a Monday playoff against Rocco Mediate. It is a severe test, especially when the wind blows in from the Pacific Ocean, and has traditionally been at least two shots harder than the North in this event. The South has had another renovation since the last Farmers, preparing it for hosting next year's US Open, with the fourth, ninth, tenth, 15th and 17th holes redesigned. The North was 646 yards shorter, but Tom Weiskopf has conducted a $12m redesign in 2015 and increased the North by 206 yards. The greens are Bentgrass at the North and Poa Annua at the South. The North is used for only one round (the final 36 holes are played at the South once the cut has been made). The small greens on the South are undulating, tricky, and not usually in the best of shape at this time of year. Both tracks finish with a par-five

Story of last year Justin Rose reached 21 under par, despite using new equipment, winning by two shots from Adam Scott

Weather forecast Clear and relatively cool, with light breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge The honours board at Torrey Pines indicates this venue is a big-hitters' paradise, with Tiger Woods having won eight times, Phil Mickelson thrice, along with John Daly, Davis Love, Nick Watney, Bubba Watson, Scott Stallings, Jason Day, Jon Rahm and Justin Rose. The South, on which 54 holes will be played, is a long, brutal track which can overwhelm powder-puff drivers. Ben Crane and Brandt Snedeker have shown in recent years that exceptional putters can overcome length deficiencies at Torrey, but it is a brave punter who goes to war this week without a few powerhouses on their side

Key attribute Power

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