Steve Palmer's Dunhill Links Championship final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am Sunday

Best bets

Alex Noren to win Dunhill Links Championship
3pts 11-2 general

Story so far

DP World Tour maiden Richard Mansell will take a four-shot lead into the final round of the Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland - the pre-tournament 110-1 chance becoming 10-11 with 18 holes to play.

Mansell carded a sensational Saturday 67 at Carnoustie in round three to take control of affairs. That followed a Thursday 66 at Kingsbarns and a brilliant Friday 68 in brutal conditions at St Andrews. The 27-year-old has dropped only one shot each day.

Alex Noren, Daniel Gavins and Ryan Fox - three DP World Tour champions - are tied for second place. The market leaders have failed to sparkle.

Rory McIlroy, 9-2 favourite ante-post, can be backed at 40-1 with an eight-shot final-round deficit to overcome. Matt Fitzpatrick is ten shots behind Mansell, while Shane Lowry missed the 54-hole cut by three shots. Tyrrell Hatton, chasing a third St Andrews success, is nine behind in a tie for 19th place.

Leaderboard
-15 Richard Mansell
-11 Alex Noren, Daniel Gavins, Ryan Fox
-10 Antoine Rozner, Niklas Norgaard Moller
-9 Callum Shinkwin

Best prices
10-11 R Mansell, 11-2 A Noren, 13-2 R Fox, 14 D Gavins, 16 A Rozner, 20 N N Moller, 33 C Shinkwin, 40 R McIlroy, R Hojgaard, 80 bar

Final-round preview

Richard Mansell is a strong ball-striker who has traditionally struggled on and around the greens, but he needed just 25 putts at St Andrews in a magnificent rock-rolling performance in round two this week.

A repeat of that effort at the Home of Golf on Sunday would leave the rest of the field playing for second place, but it seems inevitable that final-round tensions will tighten up the Midlander.

Mansell missed the cut in the Italian Open and the French Open before arriving in Scotland for his Dunhill debut, so he gave no clue to this 15-under-par burst. A share of 68th place in the Open at St Andrews in July was equally underwhelming.

Given the prestige of this venue and this tournament - and the fact that Mansell does not even have a Challenge Tour victory to his name - converting this opportunity will probably not be as straightforward as the prices suggest.

A sunny day, with moderate breeze, should encourage the chasing pack to make plenty of birdies, and the four-shot buffer of Mansell could quickly erode.

If Mansell wobbles, the tournament becomes wide open - and Rory McIlroy made his gameplan clear in his post-round interview. McIlroy is gunning for a 64, which would take him to 15 under, meaning Mansell would need an under-par round to beat the Northern Irishman.

Somebody seems set to go extremely low on Sunday given how soft the course is - and the manageable breeze - and punters may choose to have several runners from the army of pursuers to take on Mansell.

Tyrrell Hatton, McIlroy, Robert MacIntyre and Rasmus Hojgaard may charge from deep on the board, but Alex Noren may be the one who enjoys any misfiring from Mansell's engine.

Noren has always been comfortable on a links and the ten-time DP World Tour champion won the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart in 2016. He was third in the 2012 Dunhill Links and runner-up in the 2016 Paul Lawrie Match Play on the Archerfield Links.

Noren seems the most likely to put the willies up Mansell with a strong final round from just off the pace. The Swede is a prolific champion in his home continent and should approach the assignment in fearless fashion.

Mansell, Noren and Ryan Fox are in the final group, teeing off at 11.31am. Daniel Gavins, Niklas Norgaard Moller and Antoine Rozner are in the penultimate group.

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