Steve Palmer's Dunhill Links Championship final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12pm Sunday

Best bets

Shane Lowry to win the Dunhill Links Championship
2pts each-way 9-2 Coral, Ladbrokes

Joakim Lagergren to win the Dunhill Links Championship
1pt each-way 22-1 general

Story so far

Danny Willett has found form at the perfect time to mount a challenge at the Home of Golf and the Sheffield man leads the Dunhill Links Championship by three shots going into final round.

Willett, a pre-tournament 100-1 chance, has taken advantage of a good set of tee-times to become a best-price 6-4 with 18 holes to negotiate at St Andrews. Playing Carnoustie on a relatively calm Thursday has proved a key to success in this three-course event - and Willett has followed up a 67 at the most difficult track with a 69 a Friday Kingsbarns and a bogey-free 66 at St Andrews.

The top five on the leaderboard all had the same rotation of courses over the first three days. Returning Ryder Cuppers, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry are in a four-way tie for second place with Richard Bland and John Murphy.

The cut was made after three rounds, with only the top 60 and ties advancing to Sunday. Victor Perez, who won the last Dunhill Links in 2019, was among those to miss the cut, along with Robert MacIntyre, Sam Horsfield, Johannes Veerman and Thomas Detry.

Leaderboard
-14 Danny Willett
-11 Tyrrell Hatton, John Murphy, Richard Bland, Shane Lowry
-10 Joakim Lagergren, Jeff Winther, Daniel Gavins
-9 Adri Arnaus, Ewen Ferguson
-8 Mattieu Pavon, Tommy Fleetwood, Deyen Lawson, Alex Noren

Best prices
6-4 D Willett, 9-2 T Hatton, S Lowry, 9 R Bland, 22 J Lagergren, 25 J Murphy, 28 J Winther, 33 D Gavins, 50 A Noren, T Fleetwood, A Arnaus, 66 bar

Final-round preview

A clear but cold final round is forecast for St Andrews, with a fresh breeze blowing throughout, and how many players have a chance of lifting the trophy depends a great deal on how Danny Willett performs.

Willett has put some distance between himself and the rest of the field, but the event would quickly become wide-open should the former Masters champion falter over the early holes.

Tyrrell Hatton knows better than most how rapidly fortunes can change at the famous Old Course. He was five shots clear going into the back nine, chasing three Dunhill titles in a row in 2018 and looking invincible, before carding 40 on the way home (four over par) and losing by a shot.

Early in round three of this edition, Hatton went clear again by covering the first five holes in four under par, but a three-over-par back nine saw him drop into that logjam for second. Despite long-range predictions of next year's Open Championship being one of the lowest scoring in history, the back nine at St Andrews can still bare teeth when a wind is gusting across the links.

Willett, then, is far from home and hosed, particularly given how fragile he has looked over the last couple of years. He conquered Augusta in 2016, but since the 2019 BMW PGA Championship he is winless and has dropped to 170th in the world rankings.

Willett has gone nine tournaments without a top-25 finish, missing four cuts in that period, so this sudden burst of form has come out of the blue. The leader seems unlikely to gallop away from the chasing pack.

The expectation that the Ryder Cuppers would be too mentally drained from their Whistling Straits exertions to properly compete in Scotland has proved foolish through three rounds. Whether the mauling at the hands of America will take some toll over the closing stages of the Dunhill, time will tell, but so far Hatton and Shane Lowry have had enough spring in their step to do plenty of damage.

Hatton, a two-time Dunhill champion, and Lowry, a links natural and former Open champion, obviously have magnificent Dunhill credentials in normal circumstances. Of the two, Lowry, who has got stronger as the week has worn on, is preferred as a betting proposition to Hatton, who has gone the other way, seemingly peaking with a 64 at Carnoustie on Thursday.

Lowry at 4-1 and Joakim Lagergren at 22-1 are nominated as the two best value options going into the denouement. Lagergren, a Racing Post Sport ante-post recommendation at 100-1, had to battle through tougher conditions at Carnoustie on Friday and his level-par 72 there is worthy of some respect.

Lagergren relishes the Dunhill assignment, twice finishing fourth in the event before sharing third place in 2019. The dashing Swede, who turns 30 next month, has shown glimpses of top form in recent weeks and could easily deliver something in the mid-60s to set up a winning chance at St Andrews.

With three each-way places still on offer, an investment in Lowry at 9-2, along with a small press-up on Lagergren at 22-1 is the most appealing tactic going into round four.

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