Steve Palmer's Dubai Desert Classic final-round preview, best bets, free tips

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 8.30am Sunday

Best bets

Victor Perez to win the Dubai Desert Classic
3pts 100-30 Betfred, Betway

Story so far

Ante-post 400-1 chance Ashun Wu leads the Dubai Desert Classic by a shot with 18 holes to play, the Chinaman having reached 11 under par through three rounds at the toughened up Emirates Golf Club.

Wu, a three-time European Tour champion who last tasted success in the 2018 KLM Open, has shortened to 6-1. The 34-year-old, world number 366, missed the cut in the Abu Dhabi Championship last week by eight shots.

Victor Perez, impressive winner of the Dunhill Links Championship at the end of September, is alone in second place. The ever improving Frenchman, who closed with a 63 for second place in Abu Dhabi last week, is 100-30 favourite going into the Dubai denouement.

American raiders, Bryson DeChambeau and Kurt Kitayama, are among a trio tied for third spot, while Tommy Fleetwood, the highest ranked player in the tournament, is lurking just four shots behind.

Leaderboard
-11 Ashun Wu
-10 Victor Perez
-9 Bryson DeChambeau, Kurt Kitayama, Tom Lewis
-8 Eddie Pepperell
-7 Dean Burmester, Tommy Fleetwood, Nacho Elvira
-6 Grant Forrest, Shane Lowry, Soren Kjeldsen

Best prices
100-30 V Perez, 4 B DeChambeau, 6 A Wu, 15-2 T Lewis, 8 K Kitayama, 10 T Fleetwood, 16 E Pepperell, 33 S Lowry, 45 D Burmester, 50 N Elvira, 100 bar

Final-round preview

Ashun Wu is a surprise leader in Dubai and there must be every chance of the pacesetter getting swamped by superior operators in the final round.

Wu holed from the fairway at the first hole of round three to get his Saturday off to an incredible eagle start and kicked clear after three consecutive birdies from the tenth hole through the 12th. He was one over par from there to the clubhouse though – a stretch including two par fives – to suggest that finishing the job will prove beyond him.

Wu is no mug – he has won three low-grade European Tour titles by one-shot margins – but this would be the most prestigious success of his career and there are plenty of dangermen lurking just over his shoulder.

Victor Perez deserves his top billing in the betting. He was two over par through five holes of round three, but a flawless six-under-par back-nine propelled him into second place. Perez has firmly established himself as one of the best players on the European Tour, underlined by form figures of 1-57-16-4-2-20-2.

Perez was awesome over the weekend of the Abu Dhabi Championship and will probably win comfortably in Dubai if he conjures another Sunday 63 like he did last week. Starting with only one player ahead of him this time, the greens in regulation machine will not need to produce such fireworks to secure his second Tour triumph.

The toughening of the Emirates track has played into the hands of Perez, a premier ball-striker good enough to challenge for the game's highest honours, and he is best equipped of the leaders to handle the forecast breeze for round four.

Defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, Oman Open champion Kurt Kitayama, and the increasingly menacing Tom Lewis are the biggest threats to Perez, while Tommy Fleetwood is still close enough if good enough from four shots behind Wu. Fleetwood has paid the price for a first-round 75 in which his putter misbehaved, but he has hardly put a foot wrong since and is well capable of providing the late fireworks required for victory.

Perez winning, with Fleetwood, DeChambeau, Kitayama and Lewis filling the places, is the tentative prediction. Perez and Fleetwood were pre-tournament Racing Post Sport recommendations, so cautious punters may want to have some cover on one or two of the main dangers.

Those getting involved for the first time at this stage are pointed towards Perez, who handled himself superbly in a tight finish for his Dunhill breakthrough, and has the assistance of experienced Emirates campaigner JP Fitzgerald on his bag. Fitzgerald helped Rory McIlroy to victory in the 2009 Desert Classic and knows every blade of grass at this venue.

The final twoball of Wu and Perez is scheduled off at 8.48am UK and Ireland time. A sunny, breezy day is expected.

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