Steve Palmer's Dubai Desert Classic final-round preview and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 5am Monday

Best bets

Patrick Reed to win Dubai Desert Classic
1.5pts each-way 25-1 general

Adri Arnaus to win Dubai Desert Classic
1pt each-way 35-1 bet365

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Story so far

Rory McIlroy made a bogey six at the final hole of his Dubai Desert Classic third round to encourage the chasing pack at Emirates Golf Club.

Weather delays mean the DP World Tour Rolex Series event will finish on Monday – and McIlroy has taken command in his quest for a third Emirates success. The world number one has carded a 15-under-par 54-hole total to lead by three shots going into the denouement.

McIlroy, a best-price 7-2 ante-post, has shortened to 4-11 with 18 holes to play. He is looking for a fifth DP World Tour title in Dubai, having twice won the DP World Tour Championship at the Earth Course.

English duo Callum Shinkwin and Dan Bradbury are tied for second place. LIV Golf quartet Patrick Reed, Ian Poulter, Richard Bland and Shaun Norris are among those sharing fourth spot. The final threeball of McIlroy, Shinkwin and Bradbury is scheduled to tee off at 5.25am UK and Ireland time.

Leaderboard
-15 Rory McIlroy
-12 Callum Shinkwin, Dan Bradbury
-11 Richard Bland, Adri Arnaus, Ian Poulter, Angel Hidalgo, Shaun Norris, Patrick Reed, Victor Perez

Best prices
4-11 R McIlroy, 20 C Shinkwin, 25 V Perez, P Reed, 28 D Bradbury, 33 A Arnaus, 45 T Pieters, 50 I Poulter, L Herbert, R Fox, R Bland, 80 bar

Final-round preview

Rory McIlroy will be kicking himself for his mishit approach to the 18th hole in round three – he had a nice cushion from the rest of the field which was slightly eroded when his ball came up short of the green and into the water.

McIlroy was slow from the starting gates in round one, shedding some Christmas rust in his first tournament of the year, going one over par through eight holes. He soon hit his stride, though, covering the final ten holes in seven under, before delivering two decisive spurts in round three – four consecutive birdies from the first, then four birdies in five holes from the 13th through the 17th.

Without the mishap at the 18th, McIlroy would be difficult to oppose at this stage and shutting up shop for the week would be the preferred punting tactic with regard to the outright market. The blunder though – and the fact he suffered a similar nightmare on that closing hole 12 months ago – means the 4-11 favourite has a psychological hurdle to clear.

McIlroy needed to birdie the 18th to win last year's Desert Classic, but he smashed a three-wood into the water, carding a bogey to drop to third place. He will be eager to take a large lead to the 18th tee in this edition.

The forecast for a sunny, calm Monday means a soft course should be ripped apart – and the scope for somebody shooting a round in the low-60s from the chasing pack is huge. The preferred punting strategy going into the bonus Monday action is to pick a couple of the pursuers who seem most likely to ruffle the leader's feathers.

The most appealing option is somebody who would annoy the hell out of McIlroy by closing the gap. Should the name of Patrick Reed appear on the leaderboard, making ground on the pacesetter, it could easily have a negative impact on the play of McIlroy.

The leader himself would scoff at the suggestion and insist he is too experienced to be affected by Reed, but McIlroy is only human. The thought of Reed firing a low one to pip McIlroy at the Emirates after their driving-range spat earlier in the week is probably enough to give Rory nightmares until dawn.

Reed is getting more comfortable at the track on his Emirates debut and the American wind-up merchant would probably be closer to the lead but for some dreadful luck at the 17th hole of round three – his drive getting stuck up a tree.

Reed is playing well, he is cocky and confident, and he is three-under-par for the week on the 18th hole – a closer which is the perfect shape for him to sling his favoured draw round the corner. If Reed and McIlroy are tied going down the final hole, an upset would be on the cards.

Obviously Reed has much work to do to get into that position, but from four shots behind, teeing off in the group directly ahead of McIlroy, the former Captain America can be expected to play a serious role in the finale.

The 25-1 Reed is slightly preferred to the 35-1 about Adri Arnaus, so a two-pronged Monday attack is recommended. Arnaus, a powerhouse who can have hot spells with the putter, seems another candidate for the round in the low-60s which could trouble McIlroy.

Arnaus, a Dubai resident who knows the Emirates like the back of his hand, has played superbly this week aside from a calamitous seven at the 13th in round three. The Spaniard is a birdie machine capable of fireworks from the third-from-last group out.

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