Steve Palmer's Dubai Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Dubai Championship at the Fire Course on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8am on Thursday

Best bets

Min Woo Lee
3pts each-way 25-1 Hills
Renato Paratore
1pt each-way 90-1 Betfair, Power
Romain Langasque
1pt each-way 60-1 Betfred
Clement Sordet
0.5pt each-way 200-1 BoyleSports

Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood dominate the market for the Dubai Championship, but both can be left alone at the odds. Casey won on his last trip to Dubai - the Desert Classic in January - but he is having to do without his usual caddie.

Fleetwood is winless since November, 2019 (Nedbank Challenge) and blew a golden chance in the Italian Open in September. Both Casey and Fleetwood are making their Fire Course debut and players deeper in the betting represent better value.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Min Woo Lee 25-1

Australian youngster Min Woo Lee needs a strong end to this season to get into the top 50 of the world rankings and gain access to the best events of 2022, and this sweet-swinger can upstage the Englishmen ahead of him in the Dubai Championship betting.

Lee, second at Valderrama last month, was generally impressive in the Portugal Masters last week, suffering a flat spot in the middle of the back nine in round three. A closing 66 meant a share of eighth place and he headed to Dubai in decent spirits.

Lee has excelled in this region before - he was fourth in the 2019 Saudi International - and he should take a shine to the Fire Course. Every afternoon this week is set to be breezy, which will hold no fears for Lee, a Perth man who is fantastic in the wind.

There are four giant par-threes at the Fire Course, and Lee's typically magnificent long-iron play should be shown to great effect.

Next best bet

Renato Paratore 90-1

Italian stallion Renato Paratore is a two-time European Tour champion at the age of 24 and this no-nonsense character could complete a hat-trick on Sunday. He won the British Masters by three shots last year and could make waves this week in his adopted home city of Dubai.

Paratore moved there about one-and-a-half years ago and his comfort on the Fire Course was obvious in the first three rounds of last season's event. He was third through 54 holes, before suffering a Sunday 72 and dropping to 13th.

This time Paratore has arrived in lively form - he was ninth in the Spanish Open, 25th at Valderrama and 11th in the Mallorca Open. A couple of 72s in Portugal last week meant he missed the cut, but his putting has been incredible over the last month and the swashbuckling Roman should have plenty of birdies in him at a low-scoring track this week.

Other selections

Romain Langasque 60-1

Clement Sordet 200-1

Complete a four-pronged attack with a pair of Frenchmen. Antoine Rozner won the inaugural Dubai Championship 12 months ago - Romain Langasque and Clement Sordet could be the duo to keep the French flag flying.

Langasque has burst back into form over the last month, swinging with confidence again and pounding greens in regulation in Portugal last week. If last year's Wales Open champion can find a way of improving his putting - he struggled on the dancefloors last week - then a feast of birdies should be on the menu in Dubai.

Sordet is a four-time Challenge Tour champion. The last of those victories came in the Challenge Tour Grand Final in Oman, then he almost won the Oman Open on the European Tour in 2019. A final-hole three-putt meant he lost by a shot, then he was tenth in the same event the following year.

That Middle East form is bolstered by a strong effort at the Fire Course - a pair of weekend 66s secured a share of 13th last year.

Sordet, who only got into this field when Thomas Pieters withdrew on Monday, has picked up cheques in four of his last five tournaments. This is a wonderful opportunity to get his career back on track on a suitable layout.

Players to note

Tom Lewis
The Englishman's American adventure has not worked out well, but he has a decent desert record and is a classy player in a weak line-up this week.

Justin Harding
The forecast for breeze will appeal to the 2019 Qatar Masters champion. The South African can threaten the places.

Johannes Veerman
The American, who won the Czech Masters in August, has not competed since the first week of October. Talented but rusty.

Antoine Rozner
The defending champion has shown enough in recent months to suggest a successful title defence is entirely feasible.

Fire Course guide

Course Fire Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Prize money $1.5m ($250,000 to the winner)
Length 7,480 yards
Par 72
Field 114
Course records - 72 holes 263 Antoine Rozner (2020) 18 holes 61 Andy Sullivan (2020)

Course winner taking part Antoine Rozner

When to bet By 3am on Thursday morning

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8am on Thursday

Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Portugal Masters 1 T Pieters (25-1), T2 L Bjerregaard (80-1), N Hojgaard (66-1), M Pavon (125-1), T5 N Bertasio (150-1), M Jordan (66-1), 7 F Laporta (160-1), T8 A Arnaus (45-1), R Bland (28-1), M W Lee (28-1), V Perez (60-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview The Jumeirah Golf Estates is a familiar venue for many of the players - it stages the annual DP World Tour Championship - but that traditional finale to the European Tour season is played on the Earth Course. The neighbouring Fire Course, opened in 2010, made its Tour debut in last year's inaugural Golf in Dubai Championship. The layout features four par-fives and the fingerprints of Greg Norman, who also designed the Earth Course. There is lots of undulation in the terrain and the Fire is more exposed to the wind because it is on the edge of the property. The Fire is easier than the Earth, principally due to slower, more straightforward greens, and the lack of water hazards, but it is also tighter off the tee, with heavy bunkering throughout. Despite the considerable yardage, four par-fours are sub-400 yards. Four long par-threes and two enormous par-fives - the 630-yard fifth and the 621-yard 13th - account for plenty of the distance.

Story of last year Long-time leader Andy Sullivan wobbled down the stretch, while Antoine Rozner charged to a final-round 64 to claim a two-shot triumph.

Weather forecast Sunny and hot, with calm mornings followed by breezy afternoons

Type of player suited to the challenge The Fire has been described as more of a 'thinking man's desert track', with accuracy and course-management slightly more important than usual in this region, but slow, large greens and fine weather makes for low scoring, underlined by last year's 25-under-par winning total, and hot putting seems essential.

Key attribute Touch/putting

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