Steve Palmer's DP World Tour Championship predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the DP World Tour Championship at the Earth Course on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 5am on Thursday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy
6pts 100-30 general

Min Woo Lee
2pts each-way 30-1 bet365

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Race to Dubai champion Collin Morikawa has elected to miss the DP World Tour Championship with his hopes of retaining the crown long gone, while Will Zalatoris is injured and Thomas Pieters is expecting a second child.

Despite the absence of this illustrious trio, a magnificent field has assembled at the Earth Course in Dubai for the DP World Tour denouement, headlined by world number one Rory McIlroy. Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland are also in attendance.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 100-30

There are no obvious chinks in the armour of Rory McIlroy going into his 12th DP World Tour Championship start and the planet's premier player is difficult to resist with only 49 rivals to beat at one of his favourite venues.

McIlroy's Earth Course record is incredibly consistent, with results of 3-5-11-1-5-2-1-9-20-4-6. Two victories, seven top-fives - and never outside the top 20 - is a record which highlights just how comfortable he feels on this wide-open layout.

The two wins came with totals of 23 under par and 21 under par. Only four times in the history of the event has 20 under been reached - and McIlroy has been responsible for two of those four. He is 153 under par for his 44 rounds at the Earth Course.

McIlroy, who is also a two-time winner of the Dubai Desert Classic, can marry tremendous current form with his emphatic course credentials. He has won three of his last 11 tournaments - one of which was the Tour Championship after starting the event with a six-shot deficit on Scottie Scheffler. McIlroy's form figures from the Tour Championship onwards are 1-2-4-4-1.

Since winning the CJ Cup last time out, McIlroy has had three weeks off to freshen up for Dubai. He has four guaranteed rounds to assert his superiority in this no-cut event and the Northern Irishman brings three extra layers of motivation to the Jumeirah Estates.

The little master is looking to achieve the Race to Dubai and FedEx Cup double for the first time. He won the Race to Dubai in 2012, 2014 and 2015 - and the FedEx Cup in 2016, 2019 and this year. The Major-winning drought continues to seriously frustrate, but there is no doubt McIlroy can call 2022 an excellent campaign if he adds the RTD to the FedEx Cup.

Secondly, McIlroy is keen to cement his world number one status. The 33-year-old got emotional when reclaiming top spot at the CJ Cup. Scheffler came close to snatching it straight back in Mexico, so McIlroy is fully aware of the need to put some distance between himself and the American.

Thirdly, McIlroy must surely be eager to lay the ghost of 2021 to rest. He led this event going into the final round and was tied with Morikawa after hitting a perfect drive at the 15th hole. He also hit a perfect approach shot, too, but it spun left off the flagstick and into the greenside bunker. A horror finish saw Rory drop from first to sixth, before he later ripped his shirt in anger. The four-time Major champion looks set for a successful revenge mission this week.

Next best bet

Min Woo Lee 30-1

Sweet-swinging 24-year-old Australian Min Woo Lee appears to have the golfing world at his feet. He has won two DP World Tour titles - the second of which was a Rolex Series event - and he finished 14th on his Masters debut in April. Min Woo has shown he can handle the big occasion and he can happily get in among McIlroy, Rahm and company over the next four days.

Last year, Lee was making his DP World Tour Championship debut, and he admitted exhaustion prior to the tournament. He had played in the final seven events of the DP World Tour season and was running on fumes as he carded a humdrum 72 in his opening round at the Earth Course.

The youngster closed the event, though, with three consecutive rounds of 69 to finish 16th - a rock-solid debut on a track which sets up well for him. Lee has quickly shown a liking for desert golf - he was fourth in the 2019 Saudi International and fourth in last year's Dubai Championship - and a lighter schedule this time means he is fresh for his Earth Course return.

Min Woo was third in the Spanish Open at the start of last month, then third in the Andalucia Masters, before taking the best part of a month off. On his course debut in the Nedbank Challenge last week, not much could be expected, but he finished eighth. This class act looks ready to end the season in style.

Players to note

Matt Fitzpatrick
The US Open champion has a superb Earth Course record, including two victories, so must be respected. There have been signs of mental fatigue in the last few months, though, including being tailed off at Wentworth and missing the cut by three shots as defending champion at Valderrama.

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard is a dual DPWTC victor, but he was angry after the CJ Cup, where McIlroy outscored him by five shots over the weekend. Rahm missed some tiddlers, said he was "battling swing thoughts", dropped from first to fourth, and said he was looking forward to the close-season.

Antoine Rozner
Punters seeking a big-price runner who could make the places should consider the 2020 Dubai Championship winner, who has been consistently impressing from tee to green, and could threaten a top-five finish in his third DPWTC start.

Viktor Hovland
The Norwegian's iron-play was exceptional in the Mayakoba event last time out, but his putting was dismal. He was third in his only previous DPWTC and should go well again.

Earth Course guide

Course Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Prize money $10m ($3m to the winner)
Length 7,675 yards
Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 50 (no cut)
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (1), Jon Rahm (5), Matt Fitzpatrick (9), Viktor Hovland (11), Shane Lowry (20)

Course records- 72 holes 263 Henrik Stenson (2013) 18 holes 62 Justin Rose (2012)

Course winners taking part Rory McIlroy (twice), Matt Fitzpatrick (twice), Jon Rahm (twice)

When to bet By 4.35am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 5am on Thursday

Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Nedbank Challenge 1 T Fleetwood (9-1), 2 R Fox (18-1), 3 S Sharma (300-1), 4 R Ramsay (70-1), T5 C Bezuidenhout (20-1), S Soderberg (110-1), 7 G Green (55-1), T8 R Bland (70-1), B Grace (25-1), R Hojgaard (22-1), M Kieffer (140-1), M W Lee (22-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview The Greg Norman-designed Earth Course was specifically built to be the venue for the European Tour's season finale. The Volvo Masters at Valderrama traditionally signalled the end of the European Tour campaign, but in 2009 the Race to Dubai started and the Jumeirah Golf Estates became home for the curtain-closer. The fairways are wide and there is little in the way of tree trouble. The 620-yard par-five 18th has a stream which splits the fairway in two, so much late drama can occur. The greens are large, undulating and quick, with plenty of run-off areas. The winning score has been between 14 and 25 under par in all 13 previous editions

Story of last year Rory McIlroy suffered a final-round 74 to drop from first place to sixth, while Collin Morikawa fired a Sunday 66 to triumph by three shots

Weather forecast Sunny and warm, with temperatures peaking at 34C, and light to moderate breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge This long layout with wide fairways typically plays into the hands of the big-hitters

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight The last ten winners of this event are all Major champions

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