Steve Palmer's DP World Tour Championship final-round preview, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 6.30am Sunday

Best bet

Viktor Hovland to win DP World Tour Championship
2pts 9-2 general

Story so far

A trio are tied for the lead going into the final round of the DP World Tour Championship - Patrick Reed, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Laurie Canter are all 11 under par through 54 holes.

Reed relied on a magical short-game performance in round three to retain a place at the head of affairs, while Fitzpatrick carded his third steady if unspectacular round of the week. Canter, a 100-1 outsider ante-post, is the surprise contender. The European Tour maiden hit a superb wedge-approach to the 18th to set up a closing birdie.

Reed, 9-1 pre-tournament favourite, is a general 5-2 market leader with 18 holes to play. Fitzpatrick, a former winner of this event and 16-1 at the outset, is a 7-2 chance, while Canter can be backed at 10-1 for a breakthrough.

Four players are only a shot behind on a congested leaderboard, including the 2009 Earth Course champion Lee Westwood. Sunday's Mayakoba Classic victor, Viktor Hovland, is also among the quartet sharing fourth place.

Leaderboard
-11 Matthew Fitzpatrick, Laurie Canter, Patrick Reed
-10 Lee Westwood, Viktor Hovland, Adri Arnaus, Robert MacIntyre
-9 Sami Valimaki
-8 Danny Willett
-7 Tyrrell Hatton, Andy Sullivan
-6 Martin Kaymer, Branden Grace, Victor Perez

Best prices
5-2 P Reed, 7-2 M Fitzpatrick, 9-2 V Hovland, 15-2 R MacIntyre, 10 L Canter, 12 L Westwood, 18 A Arnaus, 25 S Valimaki, 33 T Hatton, 40 D Willett, 66 A Sullivan, 150 V Perez, M Kaymer, 200 bar

Final-round preview

Patrick Reed rode his luck coming home in round three - his tee shots at the par-three 17th and the par-five 18th both narrowly avoided entering water hazards and he could easily have finished five, six rather than three, four - and the American will need to tighten up his long-game performance if he is to succeed on Sunday.

Reed himself described his Saturday shift as "sloppy", but his pitching and chipping was a thing of beauty - the former Masters champion showed Seve Ballesteros-like touch around the greens - keeping his scorecard intact.

Bookmakers believe Reed will shrug off the problems of round three and complete a DP World Tour Championship and Race to Dubai double, but the favourite seems a short price and can be left alone. Reed has not won anything post-lockdown, unable to deliver the 72-hole tee-to-green consistency to claim silverware, and this pattern may continue in Dubai.

Who can take advantage, then, if Reed fails to find an answer to his swing issues on the practice range between rounds? Punters should probably add the size of the prize money into their calculations - the $3m winner's cheque, plus all the bonus Race to Dubai booty, makes this an immensely lucrative tournament. There is an added layer of financial pressure which will probably result in some players feeling more twitchy than normal down the stretch.

Laurie Canter is, without putting too fine a point on it, the poorest member of the leaderboard, and the Bath boy has every right to find the occasion too much. Canter has failed to finish the job in duels with George Coetzee for the Portugal Masters and Ross McGowan for the Italian Open in the last three months, so it would be remarkable if he could hold himself together to beat much stronger opposition with a life-changing amount of money on the line.

Matthew Fitzpatrick has become used to ending up in second place - he has been runner-up six times since his last victory - so that troubled recent history is unhelpful in a tight finish.

Lee Westwood, struggling with back problems since the Masters, said he would not have teed up had this not been such a prestigious tournament. The veteran's back has been in good enough shape for him to play well for three rounds, but, like Reed and Fitzpatrick, he is winless post-lockdown. The 47-year-old does not scream great value at 12-1.

Adri Arnaus, fortunate at the 18th in round three that playing partner Danny Willett had lazily left an unmarked ball to provide a backstop for his third shot, is seeking a maiden European Tour title. Like for Canter, this could mean too much for Arnaus, while it may be too early in the career of Robert MacIntyre for him to keep his composure to the line.

The Scottish left-hander, winner of the quirky Cyprus Showdown last month, is yet to win a proper 72-hole event. He smiled nervously when mention was made of him potentially becoming the first Scot since Colin Montgomerie to win the European money list, and the suspicion is the Oban boy wants it too much.

For various reasons the frontrunners may tread water - and there is scope for somebody coming from deep on the board to nick it. The 6.15am twoball of Tyrrell Hatton and Victor Perez looks particularly dangerous in this regard.

There is one player in the top eight, though, who appeals as the man who could gallop for the line while others fall away. Viktor Hovland carded a final-hole birdie to win the Mayakoba Classic last Sunday and is full of confidence.

Hovland has improved each round - understandable considering his Mexico to Dubai trek and the mental fatigue he must have felt - and a bogey-free third-round 66 has propelled him into the thick of things. The Norwegian youngster, who moved up to 15th in the world rankings after Sunday's success, knows he has established himself as one of the best players on the planet and is well up to winning this.

Jet lag is easing each day and course knowledge is increasing each day - this is Hovland's Earth Course debut - so there is every reason to believe the 23-year-old can finish with a flourish and claim DP World Tour Championship glory. Given he is 113th on the Race to Dubai standings and playing this week only because of his world ranking, Hovland has only the tournament to worry about - freed from the additional RTD pressure.

The final twoball of Reed and Canter tees off at 8.05am UK and Ireland time. A sunny day with light to moderate breezes is forecast.

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