Steve Palmer's Cyprus Showdown predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Cyprus Showdown at Aphrodite Hills on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 9.30am Thursday

Best bets

Thorbjorn Olesen
1pt 50-1 bet365, Hills
Wilco Nienaber
1pt 55-1 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes
Joakim Lagergren
1pt 50-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
Garrick Higgo
1pt 33-1 bet365
Thomas Detry
1pt 28-1 general

As if golf punting was not challenging enough, underlined by Sunday's successes for 125-1 Callum Shinkwin and 250-1 Brian Gay, the European Tour has thrown a new format at the betting community this week which makes the winner hunt even more daunting.

Making the cut will be difficult - only 32 plus ties qualify for the second half of the tournament - then scores are reset for the weekend. The top 16 (plus ties) Saturday scorers move on to the final round, before which the scores are reset again, then somebody will need a sizzling 18 holes on Sunday to take the trophy.

It is obviously difficult to be as confident about the Cyprus Showdown as it is a standard 72-hole strokeplay event - in which typically the player who performs best over the four days ends up victorious. This week your man could card a pair of 59s on Thursday and Friday and gain no advantage over a rival who scraped through to the weekend in 32nd place.

Bookmakers are offering healthy prices to reflect the hornet's nest being presented to punters - the market is 28-1 the field - so it is a fair fight in that respect. And there are some betting angles which can be tentatively explored.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Thorbjorn Olesen 50-1

The fact that this event is being played on the same course which staged the Cyprus Open last week is extremely helpful for punters. The PGA Tour had a fortnight's stay at Muirfield Village in July and the course was significantly tweaked from the Workday Charity Open to the Memorial, but Aphrodite Hills will be unchanged from last week.

Those who got four rounds under their belt in the Cyprus Open, adjusting to the previously uncharted terrain, can be favoured for the Showdown. And punters should be looking for players who are solid enough to qualify for the weekend, but also possessing the flair and sparkle to conjure the low round on Sunday which will be needed for victory.

Strong putters seems a sensible starting point for the analysis. The Sunday sprint from a level start will probably be won by somebody carrying a flaming flat-stick - and Thorbjorn Olesen is the most attractive option.

Olesen has always been a gifted putter and if he qualifies for Sunday he will have as good a chance as anybody of firing in the low-60s. Last week he was only four shots off the lead going into the final round, before a gutbusting seven at the third ended his challenge, but his general performance, concluded with an eagle at the 72nd hole, was encouraging for Thunderbear fans.

Life has obviously been more awkward for Olesen in the wake of his arrest after a flight from Memphis to London at the end of July last year. Allegations of poor behaviour on the journey has meant court proceedings. Coronavirus keeps delaying the case, though, and the forthcoming lockdown may add to the backlog in the justice system. The London-based Dane is due in court in December, 2021, but there must be every chance that he gets the whole of next year free of court concerns.

Olesen, who has made a positive and well-received return to Twitter in the last few months, as well as being signed up by a new clothing company, appears to be getting happier and more relaxed after a pressure-packed period, and some decent form - 27th at Wentworth, 28th last week - may turn into winning form this week.

Olesen may have been subconsciously shying away from the limelight since his return to golf - his spells on the leaderboard have been brief - but the format of the Showdown means nobody will really be in the spotlight until they have got a trophy in their hands. Regardless, the former Ryder Cup star now seems ready for any post-glory interviews, and the 30-year-old could claim a sixth European Tour title on Sunday.

Next best bet

Wilco Nienaber 55-1

Another who signed off from the Cyprus Open in style was Wilco Nienaber, who carded a 72nd-hole eagle to put the icing on the cake of a Sunday 64. A repeat 64 this Sunday could mean a maiden European Tour title. The South African powerhouse made two eagles and seven birdies in those electrifying 18 holes at Aphrodite Hills. At just 20, he is bristling with potential.

Other selections

Joakim Lagergren 50-1

Garrick Higgo 33-1

Thomas Detry 28-1

Joakim Lagergren, whose European Tour victory came on a Mediterranean island, closed with an eagle at Aphrodite Hills on Sunday and covered his final 15 holes in a bogey-free seven under par. The Swede appears to have got to grips with the Cyprus venue in time to become a Showdown contender, while Garrick Higgo, who putted well on his way to third place in the Cyprus Open, can also be fancied to qualify for Sunday.

A seven at the third effectively ended the Cyprus Open hopes of Thomas Detry, but he made five birdies from there for tenth place. The unusual Showdown format - which guarantees a player has to attack on Sunday - lends itself to the Belgian's style of play. He can essentially forget about leaderboards and be aggressive throughout, which may be the catalyst for an overdue Tour breakthrough.

Aphrodite Hills course guide

Course Aphrodite Hills Resort, Paphos, Cyprus
Prize money €1m (€200,000 to the winner)
Length 6,956 yards
Par 71
Field 105
Format The top 32 and ties after 36 holes make the first cut on Friday night and scores are reset; the top 16 and ties make the second cut on Saturday night and scores are reset; the Sunday qualifiers all start level and have a one-round competition for the title

Course records - 72 holes 264 Callum Shinkwin, Kalle Samooja 18 holes 63 Callum Shinkwin

Course winner taking part Callum Shinkwin

When to bet By 4.30am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 9.30am Thursday

Time difference Cyprus is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Cyprus Open 1 C Shinkwin (125-1), 2 K Samooja (90-1), T3 J Donaldson (80-1), H Higgo (40-1), R MacIntyre (33-1), T6 J Scrivener (90-1), S Valimaki (33-1), D Whitnell (175-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The European Tour headed to Cyprus for the first time last week - Callum Shinkwin winning the Cyprus Open - and the same course is being used for the Cyprus Showdown. Designed by veteran American Cabell Robinson, the layout opened in 2002, with his typical design traits of horseshoe greens, cross bunkers, ponds and doglegs. There are four par-fives and five par-threes - the 236-yard 15th being the toughest. The 437-yard par-four 16th is a difficult challenge coming home, but the 538-yard par-five 18th is fairly straightforward and reachable in two shots, so competitors will expect to close with a birdie. The fairways are generous throughout and the greens are large.

Weather forecast Sunny and pleasant throughout, with a breezy Thursday followed by three calmer days

Type of player suited to the challenge Wide fairways and large, slow greens play into the hands of powerhouses, like Shinkwin, who ranked 13th for driving distance on the European Tour last season, but the format means whoever of the Sunday qualifiers is carrying the hottest putter has a great chance of success. A Sunday round in the mid-to-low-60s will probably be required for victory.

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