Steve Palmer's Cazoo Open de France final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Paul Barjon to win the Cazoo Open de France
1pt each-way 11-1 general

Thomas Pieters to win 12pm threeball
1pt 6-4 Betfair, Power

Story so far

Rasmus Hojgaard had a topsy-turvy day at Le Golf National in round three of the French Open, but the Dane did enough to retain his lead going into Sunday's final round.

Hojgaard, who was six shots clear at the halfway stage of the tournament, imploded on the second hole of round three. The 21-year-old hit three balls into the water off the tee at the 146-yard par-three, eventually finding the green with his fourth attempt, then holing from 14 feet for a quintuple-bogey eight.

Having dropped five shots in one hole, Hojgaard then drove into the water at the third, going on to squander another shot. Six over par through three holes, his lead was gone, but the three-time DP World Tour champion settled into his round from there.

Five birdies and two bogeys from the fourth hole onwards added up to a three-over-par 74, which saw his lead reduced to just a shot going into the denouement.

Leaderboard
-12 Rasmus Hojgaard
-11 George Coetzee
-10 Paul Barjon, Thomas Pieters
-9 Yannik Paul, Antoine Rozner
-8 Jamie Donaldson, Jordan Smith
-7 Guido Migliozzi, Victor Perez, Andrew Wilson

Best prices
7-4 R Hojgaard, 7-2 T Pieters, 4 G Coetzee, 11 A Rozner, P Barjon, 16 Y Paul, 20 J Smith, 40 V Perez, J Donaldson, 66 G Migliozzi, 125 bar

Final-round preview

The water hazards of Le Golf National have often produced rapidly changing leaderboards in the French Open, but never before has a leader wobbled so badly so early, as Rasmus Hojgaard did in round three of this edition.

Hojgaard did commendably well to recover from his second-hole nightmare to stay in front, although the youngster seemed to court trouble throughout. Even on the 18th hole, it required a long, stern chat from his caddie to dissuade Hojgaard from gunning for the green over water from a terrible lie in the right rough.

Hojgaard is still in front, but one wonders how much damage Saturday did to him mentally. Punters can certainly expect a defensive tee-shot from him at the second on Sunday, while a pulled drive at the third hole would come as no surprise after his water woe to the right.

Hojgaard is a proven champion with a huge future, but completing this job is a serious test of his mettle. The fact he had a six-shot lead and let it go in such ludicrous fashion will probably sit like a devil on his shoulder for the rest of the tournament. The chasing pack have been given immense encouragement.

George Coetzee is a player who often goes from the sublime to the ridiculous, so he will have had sympathy with Hojgaard's Saturday plight, but the South African has been steadier than normal this week. Nothing worse than a bogey has gone on Coetzee's scorecard. Lying 108th in the Race to Dubai standings - the top 120 retaining their DP World Tour cards - Coetzee needed to knuckle down.

Coetzee, a five-time DP World Tour champion, finished third in the last French Open and has clearly learned how to handle Le Golf National, but he is difficult to trust at short prices. Only one of those five victories has come outside of his South African homeland.

Thomas Pieters, the other member of the final threeball for Sunday, would be a controversial victor. He caused a stir on social media during Friday's play when he was allowed to take a putt again, without penalty, having accidentally hit his ball. The Belgian made the rulebook work for him, but it was not a good look.

Aside from that drama, Pieters has been solid, dropping only one shot all week. From only two shots behind, Pieters is more appealing than Hojgaard and Coetzee at the prices, but preference is for the bigger odds about the French contingent.

Victor Perez, a pre-tournament recommendation, still has some hope of victory from five shots behind, but Antoine Rozner and Paul Barjon are closer to the lead and will be playing alongside each other in the penultimate Sunday threeball.

Rozner has been striping his ball for weeks and came under heavy consideration ante-post for such a stiff tee-to-green assignment. The reason he was left out of the staking plan was the concern that his miserable putting would not hold up under the pressure of trying to win his national title. Expect Rozner to hang around on the leaderboard to the end, but his lack of touch on the greens to leave him just shy of the trophy.

Barjon is the recommended play at 11-1. From two shots behind, the Bordeaux-born 30-year-old could end the day supping fine wines from the silverware.

This tournament has made a refreshing change to the Stateside pressure cooker for Barjon. A bright start to this year featured a bold PGA Tour title tilt at The American Express, where he eventually finished tenth, but the rest of the season was a disappointment, ending with a flop in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals.

Barjon's PGA Tour dreams are on hold, but a trip home has revived him. He started this week celebrating his birthday and could end it on a high, too. He has won three times on the Canadian Tour and once on the Korn Ferry Tour - a gutsy success in a three-man playoff last year. Mito Pereira was one of his playoff victims - an eagle at the third extra hole the killer blow.

Most of the spotlight will fall on Hojgaard, Coetzee and Pieters, but the threeball of Barjon, Rozner and Yannik Paul will command large galleries full of enthusiastic French. At the odds, it is worth chancing that Barjon rises to the occasion, rather than take the short prices about the leading trio.

Pieters may prove the most reliable of the final threeball. Betfair and Power - the first up with threeeballs odds - go 6-4 about the Belgian outscoring Hojgaard and Coetzee in the final round. A sunny day, with gentle breezes, is forecast. Temperatures are set to peak at 18C.

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