Steve Palmer's Canadian Open final-round advice, tips, where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 6pm Sunday

Story so far
Rory McIlroy is tied for the lead going into the final round of the Canadian Open, reaching 13 under par through 54 holes of his tournament debut, and the ante-post 10-1 chance is 19-10 favourite going into Sunday.

McIlroy, warming up for next week's US Open at Pebble Beach, carded a third-round 64 at Hamilton Country Club, with three birdies and six pars on each nine. He leads the strokes-gained-off-the-tee stats, having driven the ball abysmally when missing the cut by a shot in the Memorial last week.

McIlroy is tied alongside the two players he was grouped with over the first two rounds – Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar. Simpson has gone 54 holes without dropping a shot, scrambling and putting superbly.

Ante-post market leaders, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka, are 17th and 50th respectively. Johnson and Justin Thomas are seven shots off the pace, requiring something around the 60 mark to trouble the leaders in round four.

Leaderboard
-13 Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar
-12 Shane Lowry, Adam Hadwin, Brandt Snedeker
-10 Henrik Stenson
-9 Mackenzie Hughes

Best prices
19-10 R McIlroy, 4 W Simpson, 9-2 M Kuchar, 17-2 B Snedeker, 9 S Lowry, 12 A Hadwin, 25 H Stenson, 150 M Hughes, 250 bar

Final-day advice
The mercurial Rory McIlroy has shrugged off a shock missed cut on a Muirfield Village course which suits him well with an immediate bounce-back at a Hamilton layout which negates his power advantage, leaving golf punters scratching their heads going into Sunday of the Canadian Open.

McIlroy has been feeding off hugely enthusiastic support from the Ontario masses, who have been thrilled to see him in action for the first time, and he has dominated Hamilton from tee to green.

A cloudy afternoon, with light breezes, awaits the leaders, so expect McIlroy to remain in the gung-ho mood which has taken him to a share of the lead. Driver off the first hole to set up a chip-and-putt birdie was an aggressive and successful start to round three, and the four-times Major champ seems certain to back himself with the Big Dog again.

McIlroy will roll the dice and could easily come up with six, adding the Canadian Open titles to the US Open, Hong Kong Open, Australian Open, British Open and Irish Open. It is not worth taking 19-10, though, in a bid to profit from the Northern Irishman landing another national title. He has some tough opponents to see off and with only two par-fives to play with on a tight, tree-lined track, there are not many holes where the most powerful player on the leaderboard has a chance to assert himself.

Matt Kuchar is not hitting his ball particularly well – he lies 39th for greens in regulation over the first three rounds – and his red-hot putter may not get him out of trouble again in round four. He was one over par for his final seven holes of round three and the FedEx Cup leader is arguably not the main concern for McIlroy backers.

Webb Simpson, bogey-free for three rounds at a Hamilton layout with which he has fallen in love, seems the most likely to scupper McIlroy's hopes of a pre-US Open fillip. Simpson has become one of the best scramblers on the circuit and seems likely to hang around on the leaderboard to the finish.

Simpson beat McIlroy by six shots at Augusta in April, the American finishing fifth on a course which exposes his weaknesses, and Hamilton is a much more level playing field for the duo. This is a layout where Simpson will fancy his chances of beating anyone.

Shane Lowry has also enjoyed his first trip to Hamilton, the regular Wentworth contender revelling on another Harry Colt design, and the in-form Irishman is a significant threat from just one shot behind. Brandt Snedeker, one of the best putters on poa annua greens in the business and a former Canadian Open champ, is equally dangerous from the same score.

Adam Hadwin has Presidents Cup experience and may be able to handle the pressure of ending Canada's 65-year winning drought in this tournament, while his compatriot Mackenzie Hughes has more course knowledge than anyone else in contention. Henrik Stenson will not have given up hope of the trophy, either, from just three shots behind, so this is a wide-open shootout with 18 holes to play on a low-scoring track.

Racing Post Sport followers have three of the first seven onside ante-post – Simpson, Lowry and Stenson – so can be hopeful of returns. The other four are obviously all potential winners, though, so cautious punters may want to fiddle with their position.

Outright punters yet to get involved are pointed towards the 4-1 about Simpson, who can apply pressure to McIlroy from the final pairing and has been playing well enough this season to look forward to the challenge rather than shy away from it.

Final-round twoball punters should consider Danny Willett, who has found some form in the last fortnight and is looking more like the player who won the 2016 Masters. Willett looks a value outsider against Jim Furyk in the 6.10pm (UK and Ireland time) contest, while Peter Uihlein has been bright in the last month and is entitled to be a shorter price than he is against Paul Barjon at 5.10pm.

McIlroy and Simpson are scheduled on the tee at 7.10pm UK and Ireland time.

Recommendations
D Willett
1pt 11-8 bet365

P Uihlein
1pt 10-11 Betfair

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