Steve Palmer's BMW PGA Championship final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12pm Sunday

Best bets

Viktor Hovland without Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry
3pts 2-1 BoyleSports

Matt Fitzpatrick top Englishman
1pt 7-2 BoyleSports

Rasmus Hojgaard top Dane
1pt 3-1 BoyleSports

Story so far

Soren Kjeldsen and Viktor Hovland are tied for the lead with 18 holes to play in the BMW PGA Championship at the West Course, Wentworth, Surrey, and will tee off at 1.10pm on Sunday in the final twoball.

Danish veteran Kjeldsen, who is winless since the 2015 Irish Open, carded a Saturday 64 to reach 12 under par. Hovland, tied for the first-round lead, posted a second-round 68 to match Kjeldsen's total.

The event has been reduced to 54 holes, with Friday's play having been cancelled out of respect to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

Kjeldsen, 500-1 ante-post, and Hovland, a pre-tournament 18-1, do not carry favouritism into Sunday's final round, despite their lofty perch. Rory McIlroy, who started the week atop the betting at 6-1, has regained market leadership thanks to a Saturday 65.

McIlroy enjoyed a huge slice of fortune at the 17th hole - his hooked drive being spat out by trees into prime position in the fairway - and a birdie-birdie finish meant he can attack Sunday from only one shot off the lead.

Leaderboard
-12 Soren Kjeldsen, Viktor Hovland
-11 Thomas Detry, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Rory McIlroy
-10 Francesco Molinari, Matthew Jordan, Shane Lowry, Talor Gooch, Adrian Otaegui
-9 Fabrizio Zanotti, James Morrison, Marcus Armitage, Masahiro Kawamura

Best prices
3 R McIlroy, V Hovland, 9 S Lowry, 12 T Detry, S Kjeldsen, 14 T Gooch, 18 R Cabrera Bello, 22 F Molinari, 35 M Jordan, 40 M Fitzpatrick, 50 F Zanotti, 70 M Armitage, 80 B Horschel, M Kawamura, 100 bar

Final-round preview

Rory McIlroy admitted in his post-round interview that he used up all his remaining luck for 2022 with his fortunate drive at the 17th on Saturday, but he took advantage with a birdie four, then put the finishing touches to a bogey-free round.

McIlroy, who won the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup in his previous start, is full of confidence and bounce. He won the BMW PGA Championship in 2014 and will fancy his chances of a double from the first page of the leaderboard.

The competition is fierce, though, and the chances of anyone running away with the DP World Tour's flagship event seem extremely slim. The shortened showpiece has resulted in a congested leaderboard, featuring some world-class talent.

McIlroy and Viktor Hovland comprised the final twoball in the Open Championship in July - and both look set to go close again at Wentworth. For McIlroy, the Open was a continuation of consistently good performance, while Hovland used St Andrews to rediscover some form after a poor few months.

With only one shot separating them, McIlroy arguably deserves to be slightly ahead of Hovland in the betting. The Northern Irishman is full of self-belief, has won twice this year, and has winning form at this week's venue. The Norwegian is winless since January and has posted only one top-ten finish since the Players Championship in the middle of March.

Hovland's ball-striking has been impressive this week and should be enough to give him a chance down the stretch. If Hovland and McIlroy fail to sparkle on the greens, though, Shane Lowry will probably be around to capitalise.

Racing Post Sport's main pre-tournament recommendations - Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick - are both close enough if good enough. Fitzpatrick has little margin for error from four shots off the pace, but Lowry is in the thick of things from a share of sixth spot, two off the lead.

Lowry has not dropped a shot all week, expertly plotting his way along a course where his record is superbly consistent, topping the greens in regulation statistics. The popular Irishman has suffered frustration on the dancefloors, but with a bit more flat-stick joy on Sunday, an overdue Wentworth triumph could be in the offing.

There was much talk about the possibility of the BMW PGA being cancelled in the wake of the Queen's passing, but Saturday's play has set up a great chance of an enthralling Sunday. Three of the best players in the world - McIlroy, Hovland and Lowry - may end up battling for the title over the West Course's magnificent closing holes.

It is difficult to be bullish about how this wide-open event will pan out from here. Lowry first, McIlroy second, Hovland third would be the tricast selection, but a cloudy, calm Sunday should yield plenty of low scores and somebody seems likely to card an early sizzler to set a clubhouse lead which forces Lowry and Co to be aggressive.

Most bookmakers have only the outright betting available at this stage, but BoyleSports have a range of extra markets, and three wagers appeal.

The curious 'betting without Rahm, Fitzpatrick, McIlroy and Lowry' market seems at the mercy of Hovland. Given the world number ten is only 3-1 to win the tournament, the 2-1 which eliminates his most serious title rivals seems full of juice.

Fitzpatrick is worth backing in the top Englishman market - the US Open champion is two shots behind Matthew Jordan and one behind Marcus Armitage - while Rasmus Hojgaard can come from behind to finish as top Dane.

Soren Kjeldsen has done wonderfully well to earn a spot in the final group, but seems likely to be outclassed on Sunday. Hojgaard is only four shots behind Kjeldsen and 3-1 seems to underestimate his chances of overcoming that deficit in the final 18 holes.

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