Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational third-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 2pm Saturday

Best bets

Billy Horschel to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational
1pt each-way 10-1 general

Billy Horschel to win 6.20pm twoball
2pts 3-4 bet365, Betfred

Story so far

Viktor Hovland leads the Arnold Palmer Invitational going into the weekend, the brilliant Norwegian youngster reaching nine under par through 36 holes at Bay Hill, Florida.

Hovland, 16-1 ante-post, is no bigger than 7-4 going into the weekend with a two-shot lead. The 24-year-old has won three of his previous seven tournaments.

Rory McIlroy, the 2018 Bay Hill champion, is tied for second place. McIlroy failed to build on his Thursday 65, staying on seven under par, heading to round three as a general 7-2 chance.

Jon Rahm started the week as favourite - and the world number is still close enough if good enough. Rahm is two under par, seven shots adrift of Ryder Cup teammate Hovland, sharing 13th place.

The field is strung out, with a three-shot gap between Billy Horschel in fifth place and the group of seven in sixth place. The cut fell at three over par. Patrick Reed, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson were among those to miss out.

Leaderboard
-9 Viktor Hovland
-7 Tyrrell Hatton, Talor Gooch, Rory McIlroy
-6 Billy Horschel
-3 Beau Hossler, Martin Laird, Paul Casey, Charles Howell, Patton Kizzire, Sam Burns, Cameron Young

Best prices
7-4 V Hovland, 7-2 R McIlroy, 7 T Hatton, 8 T Gooch, 10 B Horschel, 20 J Rahm, 40 P Casey, S Burns, 66 C Young, 80 S Scheffler, 100 bar

Third-round preview

During the WGC at The Concession last year, Viktor Hovland made a comment about how he was "not really a big fan of Florida golf courses", so punters have been wary of backing the youngster in the Sunshine State ever since.

It could be a red herring. The truth is there is not a golf course in the world on which Hovland is incapable of winning. He may not find the Florida layouts particularly inspiring, but his majestic ball-striking can be effective on them.

Hovland and Tyrrell Hatton both putted well in round two to move on to the first page of the leaderboard. Both were out early, though, and able to get their birdies carded early. As Friday wore on, the greens dried out in the breeze, becoming devilish. If PGA Tour chiefs let that process continue, the weekend could be a serious grind.

Hot, sunny weather is forecast for the weekend, with temperatures reaching 30C, and consistent afternoon breezes of 15 mph are expected. Anything under par will probably be a positive round for one of the leaders, given how glassy the greens seem likely to become.

Racing Post Sport's ante-post staking plan is not going to plan. All five selections have made the weekend - and Scottie Scheffler and Marc Leishman will still feel in with a chance from their share of 20th place - but Saturday fireworks are required. Maybe Scheffler and Leishman can get some birdies on the board before the wind increases and the greens get tougher, but the quintet who have moved clear of the rest of the field have taken charge of the event.

Hovland, Hatton, Rory McIlroy, Talor Gooch and Billy Horschel have detached themselves from the rest. And the best value of that five is arguably Horschel, who is 10-1 from three shots behind Hovland.

Horschel's ball-striking in last week's Honda Classic was exceptional, but he was let down by an ice-cold putter. The dancefloor woes were surprising given he has been rolling his rock superbly this season, as well as performing well around the greens.

This week, in a similar assignment in his home state of Florida, Horschel's putter is behaving. He lies fourth for putts per greens in regulation. He is sixth for greens in regulation, will not mind how the course is drying out, and could be the value option to upstage the trio of European Ryder Cup stars ahead of him.

Horschel is a former FedEx Cup winner - who triumphed in a WGC last year - so he has the big-time experience to know he can humble Hovland, Hatton and McIlroy. With each-way terms of a quarter the first three generally available, Horschel is only a shot outside of the places, three clear of those behind him. It seems a strong each-way package for a local man who will give 100 percent for 72 holes regardless of leaderboard position.

Hovland and Hatton tee off in the final twoball at 6.40pm UK and Ireland time. Horschel can boss the erratic Beau Hossler in the 6.20pm match.

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