Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational third-round preview, best bets

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5.30pm Saturday

Best bets

Danny Willett to win twoball
2pts 10-11 BoyleSports, Sky Bet

Bud Cauley to win twoball
1pt 23-20 bet365

Day-three preview

Tyrrell Hatton holds a share of the lead in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, but his Ryder Cup teammate Rory McIlroy has retained favouritism going into the weekend.

Hatton, a general 50-1 chance ante-post, shares to spot with Sung Kang. The Englishman is looking for a maiden PGA Tour title, while Kang is bidding to follow up on his 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson success.

McIlroy still dominates the market, though, having been a top-price 11-2 on tournament-eve. The four-times Major champion is only two shots behind, sharing fourth place, and no bigger than 11-4 is available with 36 holes to play.

McIlroy has made a slow start in both his rounds at Bay Hill – he was one over par through six holes on Thursday and three over par through eight on Friday – but the increased resilience he has shown over the last year or so has again been evident. Strong fightbacks have kept him favourite.

The Northern Irishman is on a streak of six consecutive top-fives and the 2018 Bay Hill champion will be pleased with his position on the leaderboard, but a breezy weekend looks set to provide a stiff test and there are a host of quality operators ready to challenge McIlroy.

A sharp short-game has helped Hatton to the top and he has admitted that he needs a significant upturn in long-game form if he is to convert this chance into silverware. It is unlikely Kang will be steady enough from tee to green, either, to hold his place at the head of affairs.

Danny Lee is arguably too inconsistent to trust, while Harris English has so often flattered to deceive since winning his last PGA Tour title in 2013.

The main danger to McIlroy, then, is probably Sungjae Im, who won the Honda Classic in fine style last Sunday, and is equally at home at Bay Hill. The Korean star finished third on his Bay Hill debut last year and closed with back-to-back birdies in round two to book a Saturday twoball with McIlroy. It is not a big price that the eventual Arnold Palmer champion comes from the 6.20pm (UK and Ireland time) third-round twoball.

Marc Leishman and Patrick Reed, both tied for seventh place and only three shots off the pace, must also be respected in the outright market. Both are comfortable performing in a breeze and can join McIlroy and Im in setting up a Sunday winning chance. Racing Post Sport followers are on Im each-way at 25-1 and no further investments are recommended at this juncture.

Third-round twoball punters are pointed towards former Masters champion Danny Willett, who lives in Florida and has opened up with a pair of solid 71s, featuring nothing worse than a bogey. Willett is a decent price to account for Jimmy Walker in the 5pm match, while another locally based player, Bud Cauley, is a good value outsider against Joel Dahmen in the 4.10pm contest.

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