Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 3pm on Thursday

Best bets

Scottie Scheffler
2.5pts each-way 16-1 general

Marc Leishman
2pts each-way 35-1 bet365

Hideki Matsuyama
2pts each-way 25-1 Hills

Keith Mitchell
1.5pts each-way 45-1 bet365

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1pt each-way 66-1 bet365

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Golf punters have a triple-header of tournaments to enjoy this week, but the headline act by far is a mouthwatering Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill, Florida, which will have Jon Rahm in the field for the first time.

Rahm has always left Bay Hill off his schedule, but the Spaniard tees up there this week seeking his first victory of the year. The world number one made an excellent start to 2022, reaching 33 under par at Kapalua to finish an unlucky runner-up to Cameron Smith, but form figures of 14-3-10-21 since have been underwhelming for a player with such high standards.

Rahm has become ultra-consistent, but has won only one tournament in 17 months, and can be left alone on value grounds as Bay Hill favourite.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Scottie Scheffler 16-1

World number six Scottie Scheffler appeals as the best option for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The relentless consistency of this increasingly confident 25-year-old has made him a member of the elite - and he could quickly follow his Phoenix Open breakthrough success with a second PGA Tour title on Sunday.

Scheffler finished seventh in the Genesis Invitational last time out and the Ryder Cup star has come to relish the toughest ball-striking tests on the circuit. He has developed into a match for anyone from tee to green - and Bay Hill is the sort of layout where his long-game class counts for plenty.

Scheffler has played in the Arnold Palmer only once before - finishing 15th in his PGA Tour rookie season. He has not teed up in many events on the Florida Swing in his relatively short Tour career, but he was fifth in the WGC at The Concession in the Sunshine State last year.

The forecast for wind on the final three afternoons of the event will not worry Scheffler, who has spent the vast majority of his life living in Texas, and there seems every chance the Dallas-based slugger continues his rise up the world rankings this week.

Next best bet

Marc Leishman 35-1

The 2017 Arnold Palmer Invitational went the way of Marc Leishman - and that is not the only time the amiable Aussie has been on the Bay Hill leaderboard. He was third in 2011 when he was still a PGA Tour maiden, seventh in 2018, then runner-up in 2020, beaten by just a shot.

Leishman fans have had the sense this season that another PGA Tour victory is coming. He was fourth in the Fortinet Championship in September, third in the Shriners in October, then third in the QBE Shootout alongside Jason Day in December. This year has been solid, with 15th place in the Genesis Invitational last time out, and any weekend wind will just make Leishman even more of a threat. A sixth Tour triumph seems entirely feasible.

Other selections

Hideki Matsuyama 25-1

Keith Mitchell 45-1

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 66-1

Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama has gone up a level mentally since claiming the Green Jacket. The Japanese people were desperate to see one of their own win a Major - and Matsuyama has had a huge weight of pressure lifted from his shoulders since getting the job done at Augusta.

Matsuyama has won two of his last six tournaments, following a runaway Zozo Championship victory with a gutsy playoff success in the Sony Open. He finished eighth in the Phoenix Open and has been looking formidable. He finished sixth at Bay Hill in 2016 and has never missed a cut there in seven visits. He lives just up the road (Windermere) and seems a likely title contender this week.

Keith Mitchell finished ninth in the Honda Classic on Sunday, improving his score each round (71, 70, 69, 68), and he was thrilled to see his friend Sepp Straka take the trophy. Mitchell loves competing in Florida, where he won his only PGA Tour title and has Bay Hill form figures of 6-5-43. The 43rd place came last year when in poor form - he arrived off three consecutive missed cuts.

This time, Mitchell has swaggered into Bay Hill in fantastic nick, having finished 12th, tenth and ninth in his last three tournaments.

Complete a five-pronged attack with Christiaan Bezuidenhout, a three-time European Tour champion who may be ready to land a maiden PGA Tour title. The South African has quickly made a name for himself on the Florida Swing, finishing 18th and seventh in his two Bay Hill starts. Those results came despite final rounds of 79 and 73 - the inexperienced youngster got understandably nervous contending for Stateside glory - but at the age of 27 he appears better equipped to take any chance which comes his way.

Bezuidenhout carded a 65 to sit second in the 2020 Players Championship before that event was abandoned. He seems to love the conditions in Florida.

Players to note

Billy Horschel
The Floridian tied for 16th in the Honda last week, finishing 91st in the putts per GIR stats. A similar ball-striking display would make him a runner at Bay Hill.

Sungjae Im
The Korean suffered a shock missed cut in the Honda last week, but his Florida record is fantastic, so he could easily bounce back at Bay Hill.

Viktor Hovland
The Norwegian has expressed a dislike for the set-up of typical Florida courses, but his A-game is so good that he must be feared wherever he tees up.

Rory McIlroy
The 2018 Bay Hill champion has a strong record at this track and will be expecting to contend again, but his approach-play over a breezy weekend may be his undoing.

Bay Hill course guide

Course Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, Florida
Prize money $12m ($2.16m to the winner)
Length 7,466 yards
Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 120 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (1), Viktor Hovland (4), Rory McIlroy (5), Scottie Scheffler (6), Hideki Matsuyama (11)

Course records- 72 holes 264 Payne Stewart (1987) 18 holes 62 Andy Bean (1981), Greg Norman (1984), Adam Scott (2014)

Course winners taking part Martin Laird, Marc Leishman, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton

When to bet By 12.10pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 3pm on Thursday

Time difference Florida is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Honda Classic 1 S Straka (140-1), 2 S Lowry (33-1), 3 K Kitayama (400-1), 4 D Berger (16-1), T5 G Woodland (60-1), A Noren (33-1), T7 M Schwab (160-1), C Kirk (70-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Bay Hill has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1979. Palmer made significant changes to the track before the 2010 edition, so form prior is of little relevance, and he widened the fairways in 2015, resulting in lower scoring. Two of the par threes (the 234-yard second and the 220-yard 17th) are tough, water is in play on several holes and there are lots of doglegs. The fifth (375-yard par-four), 13th (378-yard par-four) and 16th (501-yard par-five) are great birdie opportunities

Story of last year Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood staged a thrilling Sunday duel, with the American edging the Englishman by a shot

Weather forecast Sunny and warm, with a moderate breeze blowing on Friday, Saturday and Sunday afternoons

Type of player suited to the challenge Palmer took the bite out of Bay Hill for the 2015 tournament, with rough hacked away, and the average winning score between then and 2018 was 16.25 under par. From 2019 through 2021, it has been set up tougher and accurate operators are favoured

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight Four of the last five Bay Hill champions were in the top ten for greens in regulation

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