Steve Palmer's American Express predictions, free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for The American Express at PGA West on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5.10pm Thursday

Best bets

Abraham Ancer
3pts each-way 30-1 Betfair, Hills, Paddy Power
Si Woo Kim
2pts each-way 60-1 Betfred
Hudson Swafford
1pt each-way 150-1 BoyleSports, Hills
Maverick McNealy
1pt each-way 110-1bet365

Patrick Cantlay has taken over as American Express favourite after the withdrawal of Jon Rahm, but Cantlay's poor finish when contending for the Sentry Tournament of Champions last time out will probably not have punters rushing to support him.

Cantlay is competing in his home state of California and must be respected, but the market leaders are a generally unattractive bunch. Patrick Reed could be the most dangerous of them if he has fully recovered from the shin splints and blisters which caused his withdrawal prior to the Sony Open.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits.

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

Steve Palmer's top tip

Abraham Ancer 30-1

Three-time PGA Tour runner-up Abraham Ancer has been unfortunate to run into some inspired opponents who have blocked his path to the winner's enclosure, but this could be the week when the Mexican ace finally makes his breakthrough.

Ancer almost won this tournament 12 months ago, firing a brilliant Sunday 63 which was not quite enough to topple Andrew Landry. And in June, just after lockdown, Ancer conjured a 65 which looked like it might result in RBC Heritage glory until Webb Simpson went one better.

Ancer knows he has the game to destroy the Stadium Course (66, 63 last year), which hosts three of the four rounds this week, and he can be easily forgiven for missing the cut on the mark in the Sony Open last Friday. There was plenty of encouragement from his Kapalua debut the previous week, hot on the heels of an excellent Masters debut in November at Augusta, where he earned a place in the final threeball before finishing 13th.

Ancer showed in the last Presidents Cup that he is blessed with bundles of bottle - and he seems one of the most likely title contenders in the Golden State this week.

Next best bet

Si Woo Kim 60-1

The Stadium Course and TPC Sawgrass are both Pete Dye designs - and there are lots of similarities between them - and 2017 Players Championship victor Si Woo Kim is well equipped for the challenge. Kim won at Sawgrass by three shots and has performed well on the Stadium Course too.

In the 2016 edition of this event, Kim finished ninth, carding a pair of 67s at the Stadium Course and a 64 on the Nicklaus Tournament Course. His weak round of 71 came at La Quinta, which has been axed from the roster.

Kim was eight under par for the weekend in the Sony Open last week and should go close to a third PGA Tour title.

Other selections

Hudson Swafford 150-1

Maverick McNealy 110-1

Hudson Swafford won this tournament in 2017, producing a late burst at the Stadium Course for a gutsy PGA Tour breakthrough, and a repeat success seems entirely feasible. Swafford won the Corales Puntacana Championship in September to revive his career and he heads into The American Express in high spirits.

Swafford, who had form figures of 35-25 over the Hawaii Swing, enjoyed weekend rounds of 67 and 66 in the Sony Open. And his good friend Harris English may be acting as inspiration after his Sentry Tournament of Champions heroics.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Maverick McNealy, who won a college event at a different PGA West track (the Greg Norman design) in 2015. McNealy missed the cut by a shot in this event in 2018 – when ranked 1,900th in the world - and finished 37th last year when still outside the top 400. He is up to 170th after a strong end to 2020, though, which ended with 12th spot in the Mayakoba Classic.

A key to McNealy winning promotion from the Korn Ferry Tour was third place in the Ellie Mae Classic in California, and this home-state gig seems right up his alley. The former world number one amateur, who works with super-coach Butch Harmon, has enormous scope for improvement this term.

Players to note

Sepp Straka
The Austrian, fourth in last year's edition, finished 25th in the Sony Open on Sunday and could enter the equation again.

Aaron Wise
The 2018 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year finished runner-up in the Mayakoba Classic in December and could start 2021 in style.

Matt Wolff
The Californian, US Open runner-up last year, is inconsistent but hugely dangerous when in possession of his A-game. This home-state mission should appeal to him.

PGA West courses guide

Courses TPC Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, La Quinta, California
Prize money $6.7m ($1.206m to the winner)
Length 7,147 yards, Nicklaus 7,181 yards
Pars Both 72
Field 156
Course records- 18 holes TPC Stadium Course 63 Jonathan Fricke (2008 Q School), Whee Kim (2012 Q School), Sam Burns (2020), Abraham Ancer (2020) Nicklaus Tournament Course 59 Harrison Frazar (2008 Q School)

Course winners taking part(in PGA Tour events featuring both PGA West courses) Jason Dufner, Hudson Swafford, Jon Rahm, Adam Long, Andrew Landry

When to bet By 5.10pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5.10pm Thursday

Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Sony Open 1 K Na (60-1), T2 C Kirk (100-1), J Niemann (25-1), T4 W Simpson (12-1), M Leishman (60-1), B Steele (175-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview Various layouts have been used for this multi-course pro-am through the years, which was previously the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic and a 90-hole, five-day event. Indian Wells, the Classic Club and Bermuda Dunes were popular venues axed from the four-track roster, then Silver Rock bit the dust in 2012 when the event became a 72-hole, four-day gathering as the Humana Challenge (later the CareerBuilder Challenge and Desert Classic). Palmer Private and Nicklaus Private later moved aside, too. The Stadium Course returned after a 29-year absence to act as host in 2016, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course made its debut, joining La Quinta CC for a three-course event. The same rota has been used every year since, with one round played at each of the tracks over the first three days, and the cut-makers gathering at the Stadium Course on Sunday. This time, La Quinta has been left off the roster, meaning only two courses will be employed, there is no amateur representation, and the cut will be made after 36 holes. The Stadium Course, designed by Pete Dye, is full of deep bunkers and water, and has similarities to the TPC Sawgrass. It will stage three of the four rounds this week and usually plays at least a shot harder than the Nicklaus Tournament Course. The Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course were both used for the US Tour Qualifying School Finals in 2002, 2006 and 2008

The story of last year Abraham Ancer fired a superb Sunday 63, but it was not enough to reel in Andrew Landry, who secured a two-shot success

Weather forecast Clear and relatively cool, with light breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge Having a hot putter was enough to contend in this tournament in the past, but the venue changes have put more of an emphasis on ball-striking. Putting arguably remains most important, but the penalties for errant tee-to-green work are more severe, so strong all-rounders are favoured

Key attribute Touch/putting

Follow us on Twitter

Like us on Facebook