Steve Palmer's American Express first-round preview, best bets & free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for first round of The American Express at La Quinta on the PGA Tour.

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm Thursday

Best bets

Xander Schauffele to miss cut
3pts 10-3 bet365

Si Woo Kim to win 5.58pm twoball
3pts 10-11 Betfair, Power

Kevin Yu to make cut
3pts 8-11 bet365

Thomas Detry to miss cut
2pts 11-10 bet365, Betfair, Power

Jon Rahm top European
2pts 20-21 BoyleSports

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Preview

Xander Schauffele quit the Sentry Tournament of Champions after just eight holes of his second round, suffering with back problems, and it is a surprise to see him return to action this week in The American Express.

The Sentry was an event with a $15m prize fund, with only 39 players competing, so Schauffele's injury must have been serious for him to walk away. The Californian clearly has a passion for the West Coast Swing of the PGA Tour, though, so is prepared to test his back again in The American Express.

The 10-3 about Schauffele missing the cut is an attractive option. Some firms are understandably not prepared to offer a price on this scenario, but bet365 go 10-3, and Coral and Ladbrokes are offering 11-4. If Schauffele tees off and withdraws before the cut is made on Saturday night in this three-course event, that will be deemed a missed cut for betting purposes.

Even if Schauffele was fully fit, 10-3 would be tempting, given both his previous starts in this event have resulted in a missed cut. Those flops came early in his career (2016 and 2017), but they were by margins of three shots and 11 shots.

Schauffele would admit himself he is traditionally most dangerous on tougher tracks, where pars are valuable, so this week's birdiefest on courses set up not to embarrass the amateurs in this pro-am are far from ideal. Throw in the forecast for some chilly mornings which his back may not like and opposing Schauffele seems an obvious move.

Kevin Yu, a rising star who has made five of his last six cuts on the PGA Tour, can be backed to make the cut. This former Arizona State man is comfortable with desert golf and finished 21st in the Sony Open last week.

Thomas Detry was beaten by Matt Wallace in his Hero Cup singles on Sunday, then trekked from Abu Dhabi to California for his American Express debut. With three courses to learn, carrying jet-leg and fatigue, the Belgian will do well to finish in the top 65 and ties when this 156-runner field is cut after 54 holes.

Si Woo Kim, the 2021 AmEx champion, looks the pick of the first-round twoballs against Justin Rose. Kim, who won the Sony Open on Sunday, should be much quicker out the blocks. Rose, based in London these days, is making his first start of the year.

With Detry and Rose closest to Jon Rahm in the top European betting, the Spaniard is worth backing for top European. Rahm, 2018 AmEx champion, has precious little to beat in this section.

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