Steve Palmer's Abu Dhabi Championship preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Abu Dhabi Championship at Abu Dhabi Golf Club on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 3.30am Thursday

Best bets

Erik van Rooyen
2pts each-way 55-1 Betfred
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Thomas Pieters
2pts each-way 28-1 general
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Adri Arnaus
1pt each-way 100-1 general
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Victor Perez
1pt each-way 66-1Betfair, Paddy Power
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Tom Lewis
1pt each-way 50-1 Betfred
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Gavin Green
0.5pt each-way 150-1 Betfred
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World number one Brooks Koepka returns from injury in the Abu Dhabi Championship, but he has not even managed to claim favouritism for the high-class Middle East gathering.

Koepka had knee surgery at the end of August and his two tournaments since have not gone well – a missed cut in the Shriners Open followed by a withdrawal at the halfway stage of the CJ Cup after he slipped on some wet concrete and aggravated his troublesome left knee. With Abu Dhabi form figures of MC-9, the American raider is difficult to fancy.

Koepka's compatriot Bryson DeChambeau has been unimpressive in his two latest outings at the Hero World Challenge and the Presidents Cup, while Patrick Cantlay is making his course debut, so the Stars and Stripes may not get leaderboard representation from this illustrious trio.

Tommy Fleetwood is a two-time Abu Dhabi champion, but an unattractive price on his first start of the year, while the runner-up finish of Shane Lowry at the short, tight Hong Kong Open venue last week was not ideal preparation for the long, soft layout he tackles in Abu Dhabi. The defending champion must be respected, but others are much preferred at greater odds.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Erik van Rooyen 55-1

Players who have already got the Christmas rust out of their system must be favoured and a low-key 22nd place in the South African Open last week was a perfect way for Erik van Rooyen to warm up for the Abu Dhabi Championship.

The terrain was soft in South Africa after heavy December rain and the going will be even soggier in Abu Dhabi after serious flooding in the area over the weekend. Van Rooyen, a strapping six-footer blessed with effortless power, relishes the chance to attack tracks that are in this condition.

His swing has been in a groove for ten months, a 26-event spell of success which started in Arabia with second place in the Qatar Masters when ranked 157th in the world. He has returned to the region this week as a European Tour champion and the 48th best player on the planet.

Van Rooyen turns 30 next month with his career taking off. His world ranking will allow access to plenty of PGA Tour events, so European Tour missions like Abu Dhabi – even with its Rolex Series status – have become less daunting. He has moved Stateside and hopes for a PGA Tour future, so there is a fearlessness and swagger when he tees up on the circuit where he made his name. Fifteen of his last 26 starts have yielded a top-20 finish, including victory in the Scandinavian Invitation and three second places.

A closing 67 at Randpark on Sunday, which was bettered by only three players in the field, indicates Van Rooyen has quickly rediscovered his A-game in 2020 and he can improve significantly on the 32nd place registered on his Abu Dhabi debut last year.

Next best bet

Thomas Pieters 28-1

Perhaps the man most likely to win the Abu Dhabi Championship without the benefit of a warm-up spin is Thomas Pieters, who has been practising hard in nearby Dubai in a bid to make a fast start to 2020. Pieters, from a world ranking of 85, knows how important the winter events are for establishing the schedule he desires for the rest of the year. A fully-focused Pieters is a dangerous beast.

Victory in the Czech Masters in August revived his career and Pieters signed off for 2019 with sixth spot in the DP World Tour Championship and 13th in Mauritius. His natural aggression will be encouraged at a soft Abu Dhabi, where he can regularly unleash his beloved driver, and five-year course form figures of 4-2-MC-5-16 highlight his affection for this layout.

Other selections

Adri Arnaus 100-1

Victor Perez 66-1

Tom Lewis 50-1

Gavin Green 150-1

Like Pieters, Adri Arnaus has been busy in Dubai preparing for Abu Dhabi and the Spaniard has underlined his passion for the United Arab Emirates by moving to Dubai. It is feasible he could get the best housewarming present possible on Sunday by seizing the famous Falcon Trophy. Arnaus is one of the most talented maidens on the circuit and his Challenge Tour victory came at Ras Al Khaimah in the UAE.

As a nervous rookie in just his fourth start as a European Tour member, Arnaus finished 22nd in Abu Dhabi, and the course is even more inviting for this powerhouse 12 months later.

Victor Perez, Dunhill Links champion at the end of September, closed his 2019 campaign with form figures of 16-4-2-20 and possesses the long-game class to make merry at Abu Dhabi, while Tom Lewis, impressive at Abu Dhabi GC in junior competition, can finally do himself justice there as a professional.

Lewis notched a ADC PB of ninth place last year, carding three great rounds, following up with third spot in the Saudi International and sixth in the season-ending DP World Tour Championship. He won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship by five shots amid those bold desert efforts, securing a PGA Tour card, and self-belief has understandably sky-rocketed.

Complete your staking plan with Gavin Green, who, like Van Rooyen, got four solid rounds in at Randpark last week (tied for 15th) to lay a strong foundation for Abu Dhabi. Green was in ninth place at the halfway stage of his Abu Dhabi debut last year, dropping nervously to 32nd at the weekend, but 12 months of maturation has featured eight European Tour top-20s and the Malaysian youngster appears ready for a breakthrough.

Players to note

Martin Kaymer
The three-time Abu Dhabi champion is starting 2020 with his old caddie Craig Connelly back on the bag. The German has enjoyed most of his success with the Scot alongside and they should start climbing the world rankings together.

Romain Langasque
The French maiden is a strong ball-striker well suited to this week's assignment. A European Tour breakthrough should come this year and Abu Dhabi is a possible venue.

Kurt Kitayama
The American slugger won the Oman Open in March and some impressive autumn efforts, including second place in Turkey, suggested that a third European Tour triumph is on the horizon.

Branden Grace
The gritty South African won his national Open in fine style on Sunday to restore confidence and a place in the world's top 100. Back-to-back victories are entirely feasible for the two-time Qatar Masters champion.

Louis Oosthuizen
The defending South African Open champion did not do a lot wrong on Sunday, having to settle for runner-up honours behind an inspired Grace. Oosthuizen has been largely excellent for five months without winning and has every chance of contending again in Abu Dhabi.

Danny Willett
The former Masters champion has won the Dubai Desert Classic and the DP World Tour Championship, so is a proven desert rat, but ADC results of 8-MC-69-MC-23-19-57-54-MC are off-putting.

Abu Dhabi Golf Club course guide

Course Abu Dhabi Golf Club, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Prize money $7m ($1.16m to the winner)
Length 7,583 yards
Par 72
Field 132
Course records- 72 holes 264 Martin Kaymer (2011) 18 holes 62 Henrik Stenson (2006), Shane Lowry (2019)

Course winners taking part Martin Kaymer (three times), Robert Rock, Jamie Donaldson, Pablo Larrazabal, Tommy Fleetwood (twice), Shane Lowry

When to bet By 3.20am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 3.30am Thursday

Time difference Abu Dhabi is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - South African Open 1 B Grace (14-1), 2 L Oosthuizen (11-2), 3 M Armitage (400-1), T4 J Ahlers (100-1), J Senior (250-1)

Course overview Abu Dhabi is a long, desert layout, which has traditionally been a birdie-fest, the European Tour's bombers firing at wide fairways with gay abandon since the event became part of the schedule in 2006. Prior to the 2012 renewal, winning scores of 21, 21 and 24 under par were registered. The tournament organisers, though, added bunkers, tightened fairways, pushed back a couple of tees and lengthened the rough, providing a tougher challenge. The course is flat and exposed, with water in play on nine holes, so any wind significantly adds to the difficulty. The greens are large

Story of last year Shane Lowry opened up with a 62 and went on to win by a shot, a birdie at the 72nd hole proving decisive, leaving Richard Sterne as runner-up

Weather forecast The UAE has been suffering thunderstorms and floods, with flights delayed amid terrible conditions, but calm, sunny skies are set to return in time for the tournament

Type of player suited to the challenge Big-hitters have dominated this tournament in the past – Martin Kaymer and Paul Casey have won five of the ten renewals by employing their power to devastating effect – and exposed desert layouts lend themselves to aggressive golf. This could be particularly the case this year with heavy rain having softened the track

Key attribute Power

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