Steve Palmer's 3M Open third-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Best bet

Sepp Straka top European
1pt 3-1 Betfair, Power

Story so far

Tony Finau was favourite for much of the Memorial Tournament last week before providing what has become a fairly trademark slide off the leaderboard – and the amiable Utah man could bolster his nearly-man status again in the 3M Open.

Finau has assumed market leadership once more, a bogey-free back-nine in round two of the TPC Twin Cities shootout leaving him at 11 under par, tied for third place. The ante-post 14-1 chance is no bigger than 11-4 to deliver an overdue follow-up on his 2016 Puerto Rico Open victory.

Michael Thompson, who, like Finau, has been stuck on one PGA Tour triumph for too long, shares first place with maiden Richy Werenski. The leaderboard is congested and defending champion Matthew Wolff will have high hopes of title retention from a tie for sixth spot, three shots behind.

Aside from Finau, the market principals have flopped on both sides of the Atlantic this week. Lee Westwood and Thomas Detry made no impact in the British Masters and Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood and Paul Casey all failed to qualify for weekend employment in the 3M.

Leaderboard
-12 Michael Thompson, Ricky Werenski
-11 Tony Finau, Talor Gooch
-10 Xinjun Zhang
-9 Matthew Wolff, Cameron Davis

Best prices
11-4 T Finau, 13-2 R Werenski, 15-2 M Thompson, 8 M Wolff, 9 T Gooch, 14 X Zhang, 25 bar

Final-round preview

Michael Thompson and Richy Werenski are certainly not renowned for strong weekend performances and the wide-open nature of this event is underlined by a front two who seem likely to tread water over the closing 36 holes.

The big guns have all missed the cut – Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka have suffered huge dents in confidence with the US PGA on the horizon – and Tony Finau has again crafted a fantastic opportunity for that elusive victory No. 2.

There is no Jon Rahm to worry about this week and Finau, who has been striking his ball with huge authority over the first two rounds, seems set to have a great chance down the stretch. As is often the case, success or failure will probably come down to whether he can retain composure in the heat of battle and whether his fragile short-game will stand up to the pressure.

Talor Gooch is a 28-year-old maiden who is difficult to fancy, even from just a shot behind, and the main threats to Finau seem set to come from deeper on the board.

Cameron Davis, who won 2017 Australian Open and then on the Korn Ferry Tour the following year, is a bright Aussie dangerman only three shots off the pace, while Xinjun Zhang won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last season and has followed up nicely on tenth place in the Memorial.

Davis and Zhang must be respected, but there has to be every chance that the 3M Open eventually turns into a fascinating duel between Finau and Matt Wolff.

Last year's inaugural edition was won in spectacular style by Wolff with a final-hole eagle – and he clearly adores this assignment. A runner-up spot behind Bryson DeChambeau in the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the start of this month showed Wolff was close to his best and he has been impressive over the first two rounds of the 3M, despite having the intrusion of a microphone on his person recording his every word.

Wolff from three shots behind appears great value at 8-1. This ultra-positive character will feel well in the hunt from there. Finau, who sacked his long-time caddie after the Memorial and is using swing coach Boyd Summerhays on the bag, has a two-shot edge on Wolff.

Finau got progressively worse in the Memorial last week – rounds of 66, 69, 73, 78 to drop to eighth place – so Wolff fans will be hoping for a similar collapse. A hot, sticky day, with some short thunderstorm bursts possible, is forecast, along with moderate breezes.

Wolff was a 25-1 ante-post Racing Post Sport recommendation, so no further outright investment is advised at this stage. The confident Californian would be favoured if a duel with Finau develops on Sunday, but there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge until then.

The European heavyweights have missed the cut, leaving a wide-open top-Euro heat, and Sepp Straka, growing every more comfortable and impressive on the PGA Tour, can take the honour.
The final threeball of Thompson, Werenski and Finau is scheduled on the tee at 6pm UK and Ireland time.

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