Steve Palmer's 3M Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Best bets

T Finau & H English dual forecast
1pt 50-1 Sky Bet

T Finau & M Wolff dual forecast
1pt 80-1 Sky Bet

T Finau & C Davis dual forecast
1pt 80-1 Sky Bet

Story so far

Michael Thompson and Richy Werenski both carded third-round 68s to retain their co-leadership of the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, Minnesota.

The tournament has been wide open ever since market principals Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood and Paul Casey missed the halfway cut – and two outsiders have taken advantage. Thompson, an ante-post 125-1 chance, and Werenski, available at 90-1, have reached 15 under par to put a two-shot gap between themselves and the rest going into the final round.

Thompson has won only one PGA Tour title – the 2013 Honda Classic – while Werenski is a maiden. Both players have won once on the Korn Ferry Tour. Werenski lost a playoff for the 2017 Barracuda Championship.

Pre-tournament 14-1 shot, Tony Finau, is tied for third place, hunting a second Tour success, having carded a Sunday 78 when in contention for Memorial glory at Muirfield Village last week.

Defending champion Matthew Wolff requires final-round fireworks if he is to retain his crown – the youngster is five shots off the pace.

Leaderboard
-15 Michael Thompson, Richy Werenski
-13 Charl Schwartzel, Tony Finau
-12 Max Homa
-11 Cameron Tringale, Denny McCarthy, Alex Noren, Harris English, Ryan Moore, Nick Watney, Cameron Davis
-10 Charles Howell, Emiliano Grillo, Adam Long, Talor Gooch, Xinjun Zhang, Matthew Wolff

Best prices
100-30 R Werenski, 7-2 T Finau, M Thompson, 9 C Schwartzel, 12 M Homa, 25 H English, 33 A Noren, R Moore, 40 M Wolff, 50 C Tringale, 55 C Davis, 66 bar

Final-round preview

“Turn up, keep up and shut up!” is a disdainful old comment that bitter professionals used to employ to describe the job of their caddie. But the modern bagman is much more respected – and able to play a significant role in the outcome of tournaments.

A switch of caddie can deliver dramatic and sudden improvements in a player's performance – immediate victories are remarkably commonplace – and Tony Finau fans are hoping that having a new sidekick will result in a change of fortune for him.

Finau ditched Greg Bodine, who has caddied for him since he was a rookie in 2014, after the Memorial last week. The losing streak since the 2016 Puerto Rico Open finally forced Finau into a change, so his coach Boyd Summerhays took over bag carrying duties.

Finau has been swinging superbly at TPC Twin Cities under the watchful eye of Summerhays and the shape of the leaderboard could be perfect for this duo to claim the trophy, drawing a line under the series of near-misses Finau has suffered since the Puerto Rico success.

Seven runner-up finishes and two third-places – that is how hard Finau has been threatening victory No. 2 – but it has proved elusive. An uninspiring short-game has been the main reason. This week, his putting has been decent enough, but his chipping has been poor, meaning a two-shot deficit for Sunday. His approach-play has been superb.

Finau, like a horse being held up until the closing stretch, may appreciate not hitting the front too early. It is not difficult to imagine a scenario where Michael Thompson and Richy Werenski tread water ahead of him, inviting Finau by on the back-nine.

Charl Schwartzel has become an unconvincing player over the last couple of years, making some peculiar equipment changes, struggling for full fitness and adopting one of the ugliest putting methods on the circuit. The South African is obviously world-class and a former Masters champion, but he is winless since 2016 and difficult to fancy.

The dangers to Finau may actually be behind him, especially with short storms set to soften the course and the wind which has been a factor in Minnesota this week forecast to fade away. There is probably a score in the low 60s available to somebody in the chasing pack – a 62 was carded every day of last year's edition – and outright punters may be better off chancing somebody at fancy prices rather than taking the 7-2 Finau.

Harris English (25-1), Cameron Davis (55-1) and Matthew Wolff (40-1) are nominated as the trio who could charge from off the pace to set a formidable clubhouse target for Finau and the other leaders to catch. Some speculative dual-forecast darts comprising those three and Finau are recommended.

The final twoball of Thompson and Werenski, doubtless a pairing full of nerves, is scheduled on the tee at 6.55pm UK and Ireland time.

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