Spanish Open: Steve Palmer's final-round analysis, best bets, free tip

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12pm Sunday

Best bet

Adri Arnaus without Jon Rahm
1pt 15-2 Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

When Jon Rahm made back-to-back bogeys at the eighth and ninth holes of round three, his Spanish Open title defence was not going well, but the brilliant 24-year-old responded with a sensational seven-under-par back-nine 28 to take full control of proceedings.

The world number five and potential future world number one has gears which not many possess, and the way he quickly turned a tight tournament into a probable procession was hugely impressive. The pre-tournament 3-1 favourite has forged a five-shot advantage and is no bigger than 1-9 with 18 holes to play at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.

The market is 14-1 bar Rahm, the ante-post jolly fully justifying the respect afforded by bookmakers. Sergio Garcia, the 6-1 second-favourite, is tied for 18th place and 11 shots behind.

Leaderboard
-17 Jon Rahm
-12 Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Samuel Del Val
-11 Jens Dantorp
-10 Adri Arnaus, Jason Scrivener, Zander Lombard

Best prices
1-9 J Rahm, 14 R Cabrera-Bello, 40 S Del Val, 66 A Arnaus, 100 J Dantorp, J Scrivener, 150 bar

Final-round preview

There appears to be no point in chasing a lost cause for punters who failed to support the overwhelming ante-post favourite, Jon Rahm, who looks almost certain to reward his backers.

Bookmakers were not giving much away with a best-price 3-1 Rahm this week, but the class act of the field has made it look like a snip with his third-round 63, and the rest of the field are surely playing for second place.

Punters have the 'without Rahm' market to consider – and Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Adri Arnaus are the two players on which to concentrate. Arnaus is a much bigger price and is well capable of pipping Cabrera-Bello for the runner-up cheque.

Arnaus has enjoyed a successful rookie campaign on the European Tour, since starring on the Challenge Tour last season, and has finished runner-up three times. The Kenya Open, the Czech Masters and the Andalucia Masters have all seen Arnaus take second place – and a fourth runner-up effort could be coming in Madrid.

Arnaus is an attacking player, full of firepower, and he has a low Sunday score in him from a relaxed threeball alongside Justin Harding and Fabrizio Zanotti. Cabrera-Bello is in the final threeball with Rahm, an uncomfortable slot as a sideshow to the rampant defending champion.

Expect Rahm to triumph comfortably, with a fully focused Arnaus doing enough to bank a handy runner-up cheque to further cement his place on the European Tour.

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