- More
Sergio Garcia to boss proceedings again at Valderrama
Ryder Cup star is difficult to oppose at his favourite playground
Starts 7.45am Thursday
Sky Sports Golf 11am & 2.30pm
Sergio Garcia, fresh from playing a starring role in Europe's Ryder Cup victory, has returned to his beloved Valderrama for the Andalucia Masters in his homeland.
Garcia is the defending champion and tops the market for a tournament in which no other members of the team that thrashed the United States are competing.
Soren Kjeldsen and Andrew Johnston are the only other previous Valderrama winners in the field. Irish duo Shane Lowry and Padraig Harrington are also prominent in the betting behind hot favourite Garcia.
Palmer's top tip
Sergio Garcia 9-2
The king of Valderrama will strut on to his favourite stage this week, flanked by an adoring army, and by Sunday his position of power seems likely to have been strengthened. Sergio Garcia can reign supreme in the Sotogrande sunshine once again.
The coronation of Garcia took time at this famous old track – form figures of 7-5-7-7-2-2-2-34-4 from his first nine European Tour starts there highlight how close the darling of the galleries came to Valderrama glory in his 20s. He was competing in top-class company in two WGC-AmEx Championships and seven Volvo Masters, getting close with no cigar.
Experienced campaigners have always fared best at this tight, testing layout, and the increased maturity of Garcia, combined with the downgrade of opposition which came when Valderrama became host of lesser Tour events, were the keys to the kingdom for the Castellon man.
The first time Garcia teed up at Valderrama in his 30s, he triumphed, claiming the 2011 Andalucia Masters title, then last year when the event returned to the schedule, the fans' favourite was victorious again. He posted a 72-hole course record in the process – the conquering of Valderrama was complete.
Garcia finished third in the 2016 Spanish Open at Valderrama, but that was played in April. It seems the Andalucia Masters in October is the dream ticket for this popular character, who is gunning for three in a row. Thirteen starts, two wins, three runner-up spots, eight top-fives and 12 top-tens is magnificent Valderrama course form for the 38-year-old.
Garcia has won six European Tour events in Spain, with the Spanish Open, Mallorca Classic, and two Castello Masters also on his list of honours. He feeds off the support of the galleries, as was the case when he excelled in the Ryder Cup last time out.
Garcia won three points from four matches at the Ryder Cup, defeating Rickie Fowler in the singles, becoming the leading points scorer in the history of the competition. Ludicrous suggestions that Garcia was not worthy of his wild-card selection were emphatically ridiculed by the little master, who found peak form when it mattered most. His form figures in mainland Europe prior to the Cup were 12-8-7, so comfortable surroundings were bringing out his best.
It is difficult to think of a reason why Garcia may fail to contend this week – and equally onerous to identify credible challengers. The favourite has hardly anything to beat. Shane Lowry likes the course but was rubbish in the Dunhill Links and poor at Walton Heath. Lowry's head must be a mess after he moved his young family to the States, then promptly lost his US Tour card.
Lee Westwood has not won on the European Tour since April, 2014, Soren Kjeldsen is winless since May, 2015, while Padraig Harrington has won one European Tour title in the last decade. This trio of 40-somethings are all well past their best.
There is no strength in depth to this field and the tournament looks like a penalty kick for Garcia if he can find full focus. The fact he has won only one trophy since his last Valderrama success – the Singapore Open – means the necessary determination should be there. If he carries his Ryder Cup form to his favourite course, the rest of this line-up are probably playing for second place.
Garcia has never lost when playing at Valderrama as a Major champion. It may seem fatuous to say – it is a sample of one tournament – but there has been an extra layer of steel to Garcia since he secured a Green Jacket. The cauldron of the closing holes of this iconic track no longer hold any fears for the 2017 Masters victor.
Next best
Marcus Kinhult 35-1
The accuracy of Marcus Kinhult makes him arguably the main obstacle for Garcia to overcome this week. Kinhult has an ideal style of play for Valderrama, where he finished 42nd on his only previous appearance (2016 Spanish Open).
Kinhult impressed in Spain last year, finishing fourth and fifth in two Nordic League events, then sixth and third in two Challenge Tour events, and he has established himself on the European Tour with some excellent golf this season. The 22-year-old was 12th in the SA Open, third in Qatar, 12th at Wentworth, fifth in France and fourth in Portugal last month.
Two of the last nine editions of the Volvo Masters went to Sweden, with Pierre Fulke and Freddie Jacobson lifting that famous trophy. Experienced sorts typically prevail at Valderrama, but Kinhult, who won a European Tour card at Q-School in Girona in 2015, is bristling with potential and good enough to defy history.
Other selection
Alejandro Canizares 125-1
Wrist problems have seen Alejandro Canizares drop down the world rankings, but he has made his last two cuts and could be a factor on turf he knows and loves this week. The 35-year-old is the touring pro for Valderrama and practises regularly at the track.
Canizares has solid results of 21-7-11-36 from four competitive spins at Valderrama and the straight-hitting Madrileno loves performing in Spain. His best finish this year is 12th spot in the Spanish Open and he seems to always raise his game at home, underlined by second place in the 2007 Madrid Open, third in the 2010 Spanish Open, a playoff defeat in the 2010 Mallorca Open and second in the 2012 Spanish Open. The two-time European Tour champion must be respected.
Others to note
Adrien Saddier
The accurate French maiden should take a shine to Valderrama, but may need time to settle on his course debut.
Jorge Campillo
The Spaniard will be disappointed to have lost his form before an event he would have previously pencilled in as a solid chance for a maiden victory.
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
The seven-time European Tour champion would be a strong contender on his best form but that has not been sighted for several years, highlighted by a world ranking of 521.
Richie Ramsay
The precise Scot has the tools to compete at Valderrama but he is winless since March 2015 and may not be strong enough mentally.
Aaron Rai
The straight-hitting Englishman was eighth last year and enjoys the dimensions of the course but has been unimpressive for three months.
Wade Ormsby
The accurate Aussie finished fifth last year and his fairway-finding ability gives him a better chance than usual this week.
Staking plan
S Garcia
5pts each-way 9-2 Betfred
M Kinhult
1pt each-way 35-1 Betfred
A Canizares
0.5pt each-way 125-1 Coral, Sky Bet
The lowdown
Course Real Club Valderrama, Sotogrande, Spain
Prize money €2m (€333,330 to the winner)
Length 6,991 yards
Par 71
Field 126
Course records – 72 holes 272 Sergio Garcia (2017) 18 holes 62 Bernhard Langer (1994)
Course winners taking part Soren Kjeldsen, Sergio Garcia (twice), Andrew Johnston
When to bet By 7.45am Thursday
Where to watch Live on Sky Sports from 11am Thursday
Time difference Spain is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland
Last week – British Masters 1 E Pepperell (30-1), 2 A Bjork (100-1), T3 L Herbert (60-1), J Smith (66-1), T5 S Horsfield (160-1), T Lewis (50-1), J Suri (60-1), 8 J Rose (7-1)
Course overview Valderrama is one of the iconic courses of the world. It was the traditional venue for the European Tour's season-closer, the Volvo Masters, which it staged from 1988 to 1996, then from 2002 to 2008.
The Andalucia Masters was created in 2010 to restore Valderrama to the schedule, then it was played again in 2011, with Sergio Garcia emerging triumphant. The Andalucia Masters returned to the calendar 12 months ago after a six-year absence.
The 1997 Ryder Cup was played on this course, as well as the 1999 and 2000 WGC-AmEx Championship, and the Spanish Open was staged at Valderrama for the first time in April, 2016.
Valderrama, designed by Robert Trent Senior and opened in 1974, is one of the tightest tracks in Europe, with thin, tree-lined fairways flanked by heavy rough.
Overhanging trees can impact approach shots, even from the fairways. Small, undulating greens add to the challenge and one over par for 72 holes was enough to top the leaderboard in the Spanish Open there.
There are only three par-fives (fourth, 11th and 17th). The layout is typically in pristine condition.
Story of last year The tournament turned into a duel between Sergio Garcia and Joost Luiten, the local man edging the plucky Dutchman by a shot.
Weather forecast Sunny for the most part, with light to moderate breezes.
Type of player suited to challenge Valderrama is an extreme test of tee-to-green precision. The penalties for straying off line are severe. The venue is just a few miles from the coast, so flat-calm days are a rarity. Support accurate players with the ability to grind out plenty of pars.
Key attribute Accuracy
Read every day for no-nonsense previews and expert sports betting tips
Today's top sports betting stories
Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport
Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport
Published on inGolf tips
Last updated
- Steve Palmer's Grant Thornton Invitational first-round golf betting tips and predictions
- Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the Grant Thornton Invitational
- Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the Alfred Dunhill Championship
- Alfred Dunhill Championship & Grant Thornton Invitational Preview | Golf Betting Tips | Sweet Spot | Racing Post
- Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge final-round golf betting tips and predictions
- Steve Palmer's Grant Thornton Invitational first-round golf betting tips and predictions
- Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the Grant Thornton Invitational
- Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the Alfred Dunhill Championship
- Alfred Dunhill Championship & Grant Thornton Invitational Preview | Golf Betting Tips | Sweet Spot | Racing Post
- Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge final-round golf betting tips and predictions