Sentry Tournament of Champions: Steve Palmer's preview, best bets, free tips

Free golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course, Hawaii, on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11pm Thursday

Best bets

Dustin Johnson
4pts each-way 10-1 general
Rickie Fowler
3pts each-way 16-1 general
Collin Morikawa
2pts each-way 25-1 general

Jon Rahm has form figures of 1-1-2 after ending the year in style – victory in the DP World Tour Championship being the highlight – but the Spaniard downed tools after finishing second in the Hero World Challenge and could be a vulnerable favourite at Kapalua.

Rahm got married after the Hero and has been completely relaxing with his new wife, so he may need time to regain competitive sharpness in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Former Kapalua victor Justin Thomas is more appealing at a slightly bigger price, but he ended the Presidents Cup with a whimper last time out, imploding late in the Saturday foursomes before losing to Cameron Smith in the singles.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Dustin Johnson 10-1

Thomas at 5-1 is fair, but Dustin Johnson at double those odds is a mouthwatering option for a track where he has made merry in the past. The Plantation Course has been refined since the last edition, but the changes seem unlikely to stop DJ from putting on a show.

The layout has been only tinkered with – the main difference is the new type of grass which has been laid in a bid to create firmer terrain, and it should not take Johnson long to adjust. He was the first Sentry competitor to arrive at the venue, indicating a businesslike approach to a tournament he has used as a springboard for greater success in the past.

Johnson will be fuming to have dropped down to fifth in the world rankings having spent 91 weeks as top dog and he appears to have turned up in Hawaii in determined mood. Teeing off at dawn on Boxing Day for a practice round showed huge desire to learn the fresh set-up and his verdict was: “I like it a lot, but it's definitely harder.”

The track has been extended to 7,596 yards from the back tees, which will only help the effortlessly powerful Johnson, who suffered with knee problems for most of last season, the latter stages of the campaign almost a total write-off, culminating in last place at the Tour Championship. Knee surgery followed and the Presidents Cup has been his only competitive outing since.

The Cup provided great encouragement that a healthy Johnson can quickly flourish again. Tiger Woods showed in the Zozo Championship how surgery can immediately revive a player and it could be the same story for Johnson.

He was understandably rusty early on in the Cup – tackling a course as difficult as Royal Melbourne after almost four months off was an immense challenge – but he combined with Gary Woodland to beat Adam Scott and Louis Oosthuizen in the Saturday foursomes. That crucial victory over the Internationals' best pairing provided the foundation for the American fightback, then DJ followed up with a 4&3 thrashing of Haotong Li in the singles.

Johnson is hungry for competition after missing so much recent action and he has returned to a Plantation Course where he won by four shots in 2013 and by eight in 2018. Last year he was looking good for completing a hat-trick until he hit the wrong ball at the fourth hole in round two due to a marshal's error and suffered a two-shot penalty. Despite the setback, a ten-under-par weekend meant a share of fourth place, and the third Kapalua triumph can come 12 months later.

Next best bet

Rickie Fowler 16-1

Like Johnson, there is another world-class operator bursting with enthusiasm for competition after a spell on the sidelines. Rickie Fowler took time off to get married, then got ill on his honeymoon, so he was out of action from August 25 to December 5. The former Sawgrass champion has shown enough on his return to indicate he will contend at Kapalua.

Ninth place of 18 runners at the Hero was a decent effort after such a long lay-off, then he went unbeaten through his four matches at the Presidents Cup, with one win and three halves, holding his nerve in the anchor leg of the singles to tie with home hero Marc Leishman.

Being such a key component of a winning United States side, having got a late call-up from Captain Woods, must have provided a significant confidence boost for Fowler. And Kapalua, where he has form figures of 6-5-4, is the perfect place to use that impetus.

As with Johnson, the forecast for a windy weekend will not concern Fowler one jot. His record in a breeze is superb. He fired a stunning final-round 61 for a four-shot victory in the 2017 Hero World Challenge in Bermuda and could claim another island success on Sunday.

Other selection

Collin Morikawa 25-1

Kapalua rookies have a better chance than normal this time, given everyone in the field will be getting used to 18 freshly laid greens, and by far the most appealing Tournament of Champions newcomer is Collin Morikawa.

The rising star of the PGA Tour has lots of family from Hawaii and has visited the 50th state regularly all his life. His grandad and grandmother were born in Hawaii and Morikawa played the Plantation Course at the age of nine. The 22-year-old says Hawaii “feels like home” and he is relishing the chance to compete in front of so many family members and friends.

Numerous golfing trips to Hawaii with dad Blaine and little brother Garret, along with keen-golfer girlfriend Katherine, mean Morikawa is comfortable with the conditions. His college team played in two tournaments in Kaanapali, which is down the road from Kapalua.

This class act needed only six PGA Tour starts as a pro to shed his maiden tag – producing July form figures of 2-4-1 – and has clearly got the potential to be a superstar.

Players to note

Xander Schauffele
The defending champion must be respected and is recommended to conservative punters looking for a fourth selection, but he is a short price after last year's spectacular Sunday 62.

Patrick Cantlay
The former world number one amateur could take great heart from the Presidents Cup, where he won three matches, including his singles, in his first start for the States. Obvious dangerman.

Cameron Champ
The powerhouse licks his lips at the wide fairways of Kapalua and 11th place was a solid debut last year. Firmer conditions this time are not helpful, but 40-1 is a fair price about a big talent in a small field.

Sebastian Munoz
The Colombian seems the pick of the long-shots as his short-game skills could make a mockery of 80-1 quotes. He won the Sanderson Farms in September and was third in the RSM Classic last time out.

Plantation Course guide

Course Plantation Course at Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii
Prize money $6.7m ($1.3m to the winner)
Length 7,596 yards
Par 73
Field 34
Course records- 72 holes 261 Ernie Els (2003) 18 holes 62 KJ Choi (2003), Graeme McDowell (2011), Jason Day (2015), Chris Kirk (2015), Xander Schauffele (2019)

Course winners taking part Dustin Johnson (twice), Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele

When to bet By 8pm Thursday night

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11pm Thursday

Time difference Hawaii is ten hours behind the UK and Ireland

Course overview Kapalua is the traditional home of the US Tour curtain-raiser and a power-hitter's paradise. The fairways are like runways and the layout provides the perfect place to blow off the Christmas cobwebs.

There are only three par-threes and this whopper boasts seven holes longer than 500 yards. The 680-yard closing hole is a serious test of strength on a track which has the largest greens on the circuit. Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore undertook a nine-month refinement of the course after last year's edition.

All fairways, tees and rough have been grassed with Celebration bermuda, while all greens have become TifEagle bermuda, the designers hoping to create firmer, faster conditions.

Story of last year Xander Schauffele conjured a magnificent final-round 62, making birdie at four of his final five holes, defeating Gary Woodland by a shot.

Weather forecast Sunny for the most part, with winds of around 30mph expected for the weekend.

Type of player suited to the challenge The roll-call of past winners shows how powerhouses can flourish at Kapalua. Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Geoff Ogilvy, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas all used considerable length off the tee to triumph on this wide-open terrain.

Other recent champions, like Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed, have shown that superb short-game work is also important. Large, undulating, often windswept greens make scrambling difficult.

Key attribute Power

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