Scandinavian Invitation: Steve Palmer's golf betting predictions & free tips

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 10am Thursday

Henrik Stenson and Alex Noren have both endured winless years, dropping to 34th and 47th in the world rankings respectively, and the Swedish duo will be hoping for a change of fortune in front of home galleries in the Scandinavian Invitation.

Both have shown signs of life in recent weeks, with Stenson finishing ninth in the US Open and fourth in the Scottish Open, and Noren following 11th spot in the Open with 12th in the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational, but both have putted poorly this season and may struggle to convert any winning opportunity on Sunday.

• Scandinavian Invitation first-round tips

Steve Palmer's top tip
Matthew Fitzpatrick 9-1

Stenson will be determined to win in his homeland for the first time this week and has been hitting his ball well enough to be a factor, but favouritism should surely be in the hands of a player who won this tournament in fine style when it was called the Nordea Masters.

Matthew Fitzpatrick, a three-shot Nordea victor at Bro Hof Slott in 2016, tied for second, beaten by just a shot, in his title defence at Barseback 12 months later. There was not room for the tournament on his schedule last year, so he is competing at Hills GC for the first time this week, but he has probably been thrilled by the course set-up.

Fitzpatrick loves the atmosphere of this event and he has arguably never tackled a venue in it which is better suited to his game than Hills GC, a short, tight, fiddly layout which demands precision and sound course-management.

It looks a match made in heaven, particularly given that experienced caddie Billy Foster has become established as Fitzpatrick's sidekick. Decision-making is key this week on an undulating layout with lots of water hazards and the Fitz-Foster northerner alliance should be trusted to pass the assignment with flying colours.

• Tour Championship preview

Fitzpatrick takes full focus into the final months of 2019 because no silverware has yet been added to his mantelpiece, despite him producing some magnificent golf. He has twice finished clear runner-up – to Francesco Molinari in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March and in a playoff defeat to Andrea Pavan in the BMW International in June – as well as compiling solid form figures of 21-41-12-20 in the Majors.

Last time out, in the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational, he carded four rounds in the 60s for fourth place. Fitzpatrick has been contending for trophies in top-class Stateside events, so has to be taken extremely seriously in this sharp downgrade to a humdrum European Tour field.

Fitzpatrick, still only 24, has won five times on the European Tour and is typically ruthless when in contention. He could make a huge leap up the world rankings over the next fortnight, given he is gunning for a hat-trick of European Masters triumphs in Switzerland next week.

Next best
Andrea Pavan 20-1

The main threat to Fitzpatrick could turn out to be the man who denied him in the BMW International. Andrea Pavan is in fine fettle and also extremely well suited to the challenge of this week's Gothenburg venue.

Pavan, who finished fourth in the Scottish Open after his triumph in Germany, was third in the Czech Masters last week. The Italian conjured a final-round 65 which nobody in the field could better on Sunday.

Form and confidence is coursing through the veins of Pavan and he tackles a track this week where he finished sixth last year despite being a European Tour maiden ranked 292nd in the world. He closed with a 64 at the Hills 12 months ago and can produce similar fireworks again in Gothenburg.

The 30-year-old, who won the first of his four Challenge Tour titles a four-hour drive up the road from the Hills in Norway, loves to employ his strong three-wood off the tee and that is an ideal weapon for this week's layout.

Other selections
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 45-1
Marcus Kinhult 66-1

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who courageously repelled Jon Rahm, Sergio Garcia and other Spanish heroes to win the Andalucia Masters at Valderrama by six shots in June, may play the role of party-pooper again this week by upstaging the Swedish contingent. The accurate South African has not competed on suitable terrain since his breakthrough victory, until this week. He finished 45th at the Hills last year when ranked 507th in the world and returns with vastly improved self-belief.

The best value of the home hopes is arguably Marcus Kinhult, who bravely won the British Masters in May. The 23-year-old has been quiet since, but he lives near the Hills and is well suited to its demands, so there is every chance he can start to sizzle again this week. As an 18-year-old amateur in 2015, he led this event at the halfway stage, feeding off the home support.

Others to note
Robert MacIntyre
The Scottish left-hander, runner-up in Denmark in May, is enjoying a magnificent rookie campaign and has another excellent chance of a breakthrough victory.

Kim Koivu
The Finn, a Challenge Tour star last year, finished 11th in Prague last week, bouncing back to form after a break, and could be dangerous playing so close to home.

Alexander Bjork
The tidy Swede is well suited to the Hills, but he flopped badly there last year, missing the cut by six shots, and has been struggling to find top gear this term.

Paul Waring
The defending champion has been bright this year, registering four top-seven finishes, and a repeat victory is entirely feasible.

Joost Luiten
The Dutchman has gone quiet over the last three months, but he is a prolific winner of low-grade European Tour events and could easily come alive this week.

Romain Langasque
The French maiden has contended on numerous occasions this season, including in Denmark in May, and this crisp ball-striker could go close again.

Staking plan
M Fitzpatrick
4pts each-way 9-1 Betfair, Coral
A Pavan
2.5pts each-way 20-1 Ladbrokes
C Bezuidenhout
1.5pts each-way 45-1 Betfair, Paddy Power
M Kinhult
1pt each-way 66-1 BoyleSports

Scandinavian Invitation lowdown

Course Hills Golf & Sports Club, Gothenburg, Sweden
Prize money €1.5m (€250,000 to the winner)
Length 6,865 yards
Par 70
Field 156
Course records- 72 holes 266 Paul Waring (2018), Thomas Aiken (2018) 18 holes 62 Clement Sordet (2018)

Course winner taking part Paul Waring

When to bet By 6.30am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 10am Thursday

Time difference Sweden is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Czech Masters 1 T Pieters (18-1), 2 A Arnaus (55-1), T3 S Horsfield (110-1), A Pavan (25-1), T5 L Johnston (500-1), R Karlberg (100-1), H Leon (200-1), M Schwab (60-1), E Van Rooyen (14-1)

Course overview Hills Golf Club, designed by American architect Arthur Hills and opened in 2005, made its European Tour debut last year when this tournament was called the Nordea Masters.

It also staged the 2008 Dubliner Challenge on the Challenge Tour. The course is much shorter than its predecessors, with only three par-fives, four sub-200-yards par-threes and a 267-yard par-four (the 12th hole).

Most of the layout is made up of short par-fours. It is an undulating, parkland track, with lakes running through it and lots of elevation changes, laid out over a rugged landscape. Johan Edfors has tinkered with the track since its original design.

The story of last year Englishman Paul Waring landed a long overdue maiden European Tour title, defeating Thomas Aiken in a playoff after the South African bogeyed the first extra hole.

Weather forecast Clear with light breezes for the most part, with conditions looking particularly welcoming for the final round, so scoring should be low.

Type of player suited to the challenge Tidy, smart sorts who can avoid the numerous water hazards and rocky outcrops should succeed. Distance control is difficult given the course undulations and small greens provide tiny targets on approach.

Key attribute Accuracy

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