Rocket Mortgage Classic: Steve Palmer's third-round analysis, final-round advice

Sky Sports Golf, 6pm Sunday

Story so far
For the second consecutive week on the US Tour, a player has gone well clear through three rounds, and Nate Lashley is bidding to follow the example set by Chez Reavie.

The Travlers Championship was dominated by Reavie last week – a six-shot third-round lead turned into a four-shot success – and Lashley takes a six-shot advantage in the Sunday of the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Classic.

The ante-post 100-1 chance opened the event with a bogey-free 63, then repeated the same feat in round three, reaching a spectacular 23 under par through 54 holes at Detroit Golf Club. The US Tour maiden is no bigger than 2-9 to make his breakthrough.

Two other maidens lead the chase – JT Poston and Cameron Tringale – and last year's Masters champion Patrick Reed is alone in fourth place. Ante-post 6-1 favourite Dustin Johnson missed the cut, as well as US Open champion Gary Woodland, while Rickie Fowler needed nine shots more than Lashley in round three and dropped to 39th spot.

Leaderboard
-23 Nate Lashley
-17 J.T. Poston
-16 Cameron Tringale
-15 Patrick Reed
-14 Doc Redman, Wes Roach, Rory Sabbatini, Peter Malnati
-13 Brian Stuard, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Ted Potter, Joaquin Niemann, Byeong Hun An, Charles Howell

Best prices
2-9 N Lashley, 12 J.T. Poston, 25 P Reed, C Tringale, 66 H Matsuyama, R Sabbatini, 100 bar

Final-round advice
Nate Lashley had a hugely traumatic start to his golfing career and victory in the Rocket Mortgage Classic would be an emotional high for the 36-year-old after a decade and a half of suffering.

Lashley's parents and girlfriend died in a plane crash while he was a junior competing for the University of Arizona. They had been watching him in the NCAA West Regional event in Oregon, then left Lashley to fly home to Nebraska.

Lashley has understandably taken time to get over the tragedy and perform at his best, but he won on the Web.com Tour in 2017. His best US Tour finish since was eighth place in the Puerto Rico Open in February, but 28th spot in the US Open last time out seems to have injected some fresh self-belief.

This is new domain for Lashley – even in his Web win, he came from behind to pip Augusto Nunez by a shot – and final-round nerves seem inevitable if the contest becomes close. The early stages of round four are crucial in determining how the Rocket Mortgage will play out.

The six-shot buffer, established by Lashley making birdie at his final two holes of round three, is considerable on a fairly straightforward course where this accurate operator should be able to avoid putting big numbers on his scorecard.

If Lashley can card a couple of birdies and keep his card relatively clean, the chasing pack have hardly any margin for error. A sunny day with light breezes is forecast, so there is a score in the low-60s out there for somebody, but if Lashley makes enough positive moves himself, it can become irrelevant what the rest of the field conjure.

Of course, an early charge from a big name coupled with an early bogey or two from Lashley could see the leader wobble, but Patrick Reed is the closest champion behind Lashley and he is eight shots adrift. And Reed has been largely unimpressive this year.

Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im and Joaquin Niemann are all playing well enough to threaten second place from a share of ninth, so could reward each-way support, but catching Lashley from ten shots behind is going to require some sort of implosion from the frontrunner.

Matsuyama, who has gone two rounds without dropping a shot despite missing two four-foot putts on Saturday, is worth considering in the without Lashley market. Some firms have chalked up prices. The former world number two is well capable of overtaking everyone ahead of him bar the runaway leader.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Brandt Snedeker, who has twice won US Tour events on Donald Ross designed courses and has fallen in love with this one too. Snedeker carded a bogey-free 65 in round three and can make a strong push for the finishing line, leaving 5.55pm (UK and Ireland time) playing partner Charles Howell in his wake.

Lashley and J.T. Poston are scheduled on the tee at 7.05pm in the final pairing.

Outright recommendation
H Matsuyama without N Lashley
1pt each-way 16-1 bet365

Twoballs recommendation
B Snedeker
2pts 10-11 general

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