Rocket Mortgage Classic: Steve Palmer's halfway analysis, third-round advice

Sky Sports Golf, Saturday 6pm

Ante-post 100-1 chance Nate Lashley leads the Rocket Mortgage Classic by a shot going into the weekend at Detroit Golf Club and he will not have pre-tournament 6-1 favourite Dustin Johnson to worry about.

The accurate Lashley followed a first-round 63 with a Friday 67 to set the pace, while Johnson, much to the chagrin of spectators who have made this new event a sell-out for rounds three and four, missed the cut by three shots.

US Open victor Gary Woodland, in his first start since becoming a Major champion, finished on the same score as Johnson and was another big-name halfway casualty.

Lashley, a 36-year-old who has won once on the Web.com Tour, is 15-2 to convert his slender advantage into a maiden US Tour triumph.

Cameron Champ, who made an awesome start to life on the US Tour before suffering some back problems, is alone in second place. Champ, who won the Sanderson Farms Championship by four shots in October and appeared to have the world at his feet, failed to make the weekend in seven of his previous nine tournaments and went off 200-1 this week.

Champ missed the cut by four shots in the Travelers Championship last week, but he raced to the turn in just 28 shots in round two of the Rocket Mortgage, and starts the weekend as 11-2 market leader.
Champ might be back in business after his health issues, but 5-1 looks short given he has only one low-grade US Tour honour to his name. Nerves seem likely to get to maiden Lashley, while third-placed Charles Howell has never been blessed with huge amounts of killer instinct when the finishing line looms.

In-running punters looking for an outright bet at this stage may be wise to hunt deeper down the leaderboard. Joaquin Niemann has clearly found a putting stroke to marry to his typically consistent ball-striking and the 20-year-old Chilean looks extremely dangerous from just four shots behind.

Niemann at 16-1 is well worth considering, but, like Lashley and others, he is chasing a maiden success, so the big crowds and tense atmosphere may get to him. A better bet may be the 12-1 about Hideki Matsuyama, who carded a bogey-free 67 in round two and is oozing control.

With a bit more breeze expected over the weekend and tension levels set to rise on the leaderboard, Matsuyama's tee-to-green consistency, coupled with the ice which typically runs through his veins, means he can turn his current share of 11th place, five shots behind, into being right in the thick of things down the closing stretch on Sunday.

Third-round twoball punters are pointed towards Niemann, who has been much more impressive than playing partner Harris English from tee to green this season, and should hold his position on the leaderboard for longer in the 6.20pm match.

Recommendation
J Niemann
2pts 8-11 general

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