Portugal Masters: Steve Palmer's preview, best bets, free tips, course guide

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Portugal Masters at the Dom Pedro Victoria Course on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am Thursday

Best bets

Lucas Bjerregaard
3pts each-way 20-1 Betfair, Paddy Power
Back this tip with Paddy Power

Tom Lewis
2.5pts each-way 22-1 Sky Bet
Back this tip with Coral

George Coetzee
2pts each-way 25-1 Betfair, BoyleSports, Paddy Power
Back this tip with Paddy Power

The Portugal Masters is the last chance for players trying to retain their European Tour card to bank much-needed euros – and Nicolas Colsaerts showed in last week's French Open how that extra motivation can inspire a sudden improvement in form – but the outright market is obviously dominated by established champions.

Matt Wallace, a four-time European Tour victor who finished seventh in the Italian Open last time out, is Portugal Masters favourite. His maiden title came in the 2017 Open de Portugal, but his record at the Dom Pedro Victoria (39-44) is not as encouraging. The Wallace price seems nothing special, while the same can be said of the next two in the betting – Martin Kaymer and Eddie Pepperell.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Lucas Bjerregaard 20-1

Flitting between the European and PGA Tours is never easy – and even members of the elite have struggled to do so in the past – but a week off should have given Lucas Bjerregaard a chance to regroup and the sweet-swinging Dane can be fancied to produce his usual running in the Portugal Masters.

Bjerregaard earned some access to the PGA Tour through cracking the top 50 of the world rankings, then finishing 12th in the Honda Classic, 30th in the Players Championship and fourth in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, where Justin Thomas, Matt Wallace, Henrik Stenson and Tiger Woods were among his victims.

Three superb Major efforts have followed – 21st in the Masters, 16th in the US PGA and 16th in the Open – and Bjerregaard has shown his A-game is good enough to challenge for the biggest prizes in the sport.

At the age of 28, this globetrotter is unsure where his future lies, but his 2020 plans will be helped greatly by regaining a spot in the world's top 50 before the end of this year. And the Portugal Masters represents a fine opportunity to move from 61st place back into the group who qualify for everything.

Bjerregaard, blessed with effortless power, laser-like irons and a smooth putting stroke, possesses all the tools to tame Victoria, where his form figures are 47-9-12-1-20. His 2017 victory, the first of his two European Tour titles, was by a four-shot margin and with a 20-under-par total, all while ranked 387th in the world. He is a much more confident beast two years later and will expect to contend.

Next best bet

Tom Lewis 22-1

Like Bjerregaard, Tom Lewis has been mixing his time between Europe and the United States in recent weeks, a remarkable series of events resulting in Lewis claiming a PGA Tour card. An 11th-place finish in the Open meant the Hertfordshire man had banked enough FedEx Cup points to qualify for the Korn Ferry Tour Finals, then he won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship by five shots to secure his American dream.

That Korn Ferry glory came at Victoria National, Indiana, and he heads to the Victoria in Portugal with confidence levels at an all-time high. He is yet to make a cut on the PGA Tour since gaining his card, but time is on his side, and a hop back to Europe for the Dunhill Links Championship ended in a share of fifth place. Life is going well for the 28-year-old and this week he could put the cherry on the cake by completing a Portugal Masters hat-trick.

Both of Lewis's European Tour victories have come at the Victoria – in 2011 and last year – and he can tee up at his happiest hunting ground this time absolutely brimming with self-belief. He is 60th in the world rankings and will know that a treasured place in the top 50 is well within his grasp.

Other selection

George Coetzee 25-1

A three-pronged attack is recommended, with another proven Victoria performer completing the staking plan. George Coetzee will have taken great confidence from finishing third in the French Open last week on a course which has never played to his strengths. If the South African can contend at Le Golf National, he is clearly in good enough form to go close in the Portugal Masters.

The Victoria sets up perfectly for power-packed, aggressive sluggers such as Coetzee, who usually brings a silky putting touch to the party too, and his full Victoria CV reads 3-6-21-31-7-20. This seems an ideal chance for the four-time Tour champ to end a disappointing season in style.

Players to note

Sam Horsfield
Punters wanting a fourth string to their bow should opt for Horsfield, an improving English youngster well equipped to take advantage of the set-up. He is arguably the most dangerous maiden in the field.

Adri Arnaus
Another maiden with strong claims, Arnaus has contended on a few occasions in this, his rookie campaign, and the powerful Spaniard could make an impact on his Victoria debut.

Kristoffer Reitan
The big-hitting Norwegian maiden should enjoy his Victoria debut and 18th place in the French Open on Sunday was an encouraging warm-up spin.

Min Woo Lee
The 21-year-old Australian is bursting with potential and well equipped to take advantage of Victoria on his first visit.

Alvaro Quiros
The former Vilamoura resident knows the Victoria layout well and has shown enough encouraging recent form to merit consideration at juicy prices.

Ryan Fox
The Kiwi slugger has bounced back to form with 18th place in both the Italian Open and the French Open, so could be a factor in Portugal with a half-decent week of putting.

Dom Pedro Victoria course guide

Course Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal
Prize money €1.5m (€250,000 to the winner)
Length 7,191 yards
Par 71
Field 126
Course records- 72 holes 261 Andy Sullivan (2015) 18 holes 59 Oliver Fisher (2018)

Course winners taking part Steve Webster, Alvaro Quiros, Lee Westwood, Tom Lewis (twice), Alex Levy, Andy Sullivan, Padraig Harrington, Lucas Bjerregaard

When to bet By 8am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.30am Thursday

Last week - French Open 1 N Colsaerts (100-1), 2 JB Hansen (66-1), 3 G Coetzee (90-1), 4 K Kitayama (35-1), T5 M Kaymer (40-1), R Ramsay (66-1), G Moynihan (250-1)

Course overview The Victoria has been the venue since 2007, having a couple of name changes along the way, and the 2005 World Cup was also staged at the course. It is a flat, exposed track which is similar in style to venues found on the Gulf Swing. The 481-yard third, the 510-yard seventh and the 463-yard 18th are the three most difficult par-fours. Numerous water hazards and huge, undulating greens provide a challenge, but the fairways are wide, and seven times the winning score has been at least 20 under par, including the last four renewals. Oliver Fisher carded the European Tour's first and only round of 59 on the second day of the last Portugal Masters. The three par-fives (the fifth, 12th and 17th), along with the 315-yard, water-free, driveable par-four 15th, are the most obvious birdie opportunities

Story of last year Tom Lewis won his second Portugal Masters title, defeating Lucas Herbert and Eddie Pepperell by three shots

Weather forecast Clear and pleasant, with light to moderate breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge Length has always been of great advantage at Victoria, with plenty of enforced carries from the tee and many holes setting up well for big-hitters. The par-fives require lusty striking to be reached in two shots and the drives over water at the 510-yard par-four seventh and the notoriously difficult 18th become much easier if you can give your ball a healthy ride. The driveable 15th is an easy birdie for the bombers

Key attribute Power

Follow us on Twitter

Like us on Facebook