Portugal Masters: Steve Palmer's first-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am Thursday

Best bets

Ryan Fox to win threeball
1pt 5-2 Betfair
Back this tip with Coral here

George Coetzee to win threeball
1pt 9-5 Betfred
Back this tip with Coral here

Preview

Martin Kaymer and Eddie Pepperell are second and third favourites for the Portugal Masters, but the popular duo may struggle to justify their market status and can be opposed in their opening threeball at the Dom Pedro Victoria Course.

Kaymer and Pepperell join threeball outsider Ryan Fox for the 1.20pm contest and the juicy prices against the name of Fox are worth sniffing out. Over 18 holes, the in-form New Zealander has every chance of upsetting the German and the Englishman.

Kaymer is churning out greens in regulation – he tops the GIR stats on the European Tour this season – but a hot putter is essential for success this course and the former US Open champion is rarely in possession of one these days. A score of at least 20 under par is probably going to be needed to triumph this week and Kaymer's flat-stick woes mean he seems unlikely to stay the pace.

Pepperell has a strong course record at Victoria, but he has suffered a lot of injury niggles this term and not been in great form. He has posted only one top-30 finish in his last eight events.

Fox has finished 18th in his last two starts – the Italian Open and the French Open – and is threatening to gallop again after a mid-season slump. He is by far the most powerful member of this group and can cut the Victoria down to size. The course sets up extremely well for big-hitters to make merry.

Another of the afternoon threeball prices which appeals is the 9-5 about George Coetzee defeating Jordan Smith and Shubhankar Sharma in the 12.50pm match. Coetzee has always performed well at Victoria – boasting form figures of 3-6-21-31-7-20 – and his tail is up after a surprisingly good third-place finish in Paris last Sunday.

Smith had some serious soul-searching to do after the French Open, an event at which he went six under par through six holes before losing the plot. He ended up in a tie for 54th place with his temperament in question.

Sharma is making his course debut and Coetzee, who relishes a track which is ideal for him, should be favourite for the threeball.

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