Steve Palmer's WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play predictions

When to bet

By 2.15pm on WEDNESDAY

Where to watch WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 2.15pm on Wednesday

Steve Palmer's WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play predictions

Collin Morikawa
3pts each-way 22-1 general

Patrick Cantlay
3pts each-way 18-1 bet365, Hills

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Scottie Scheffler is just 8-1 to successfully defend his WGC-Match Play title, with bookmakers showing the world number one enormous respect in the wake of his emphatic Players Championship triumph.

Texas-based Scheffler will be relishing this week – the king of spring has burst into life at the perfect time and could cement Masters favouritism by winning again at Austin Country Club – but he has been set some difficult early challenges in the WGC.

Scheffler's group contains Tom Kim, Davis Riley and Alex Noren – three tricky opponents who are all capable of giving the market leader some problems.

Max Homa is in Scheffler's side of the draw and also has a group-stage headache. Homa goes into battle with Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Suh and 2019 Austin champion Kevin Kisner.

On the other side of the draw, the competitive nature of this event is underlined by the early assignments faced by Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has been handed a terrible group, facing a resurgent Rickie Fowler, a massively in-form Keith Mitchell and 2021 Austin champion Billy Horschel.

Rory McIlroy will be much more satisfied with his group-stage opposition and can be expected to bounce back from his Sawgrass flop, but Tyrrell Hatton seems a likely last-16 foe. Sawgrass runner-up Hatton may send McIlroy packing on Saturday.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Collin Morikawa 22-1

Only Americans have made it through to the final in the last four WGC-Match Plays – and two Yanks appeal as the best investments for this five-day marathon.

Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay are not able to meet in the final – they are scheduled to clash in the semi-finals if they make it that far – but bookmakers are offering each-way terms of a quarter the odds the first four. Backing both Morikawa and Cantlay each-way means punters can get a return on both bets.

Finding greens in regulation is the key to success in this tournament – a player can wear down their opponent by churning out fairways and greens. Those who make lots of long-game errors can give holes away in a flash – one bad shot can lose a hole. Keeping pressure on your enemy is the name of the game.

Morikawa is always prominent in the greens-in-regulation statistics – he is arguably the best iron-player in the world – and he has been getting back to the level which made him a two-time Major champion. A cold putter cost him at Sawgrass, but the Californian was thrilled with his swing, which he said is in better condition than ever.

When Morikawa putts to a Tour average standard, he is likely to contend, given the quality of his ball-striking. Anyone he faces this week is going to know that pars are unlikely to win many holes against someone with such tee-to-green control.

Jason Day, who has made a decent start to the year, is always popular with punters. The Aussie has a good record in this event and the respect he is being shown means group rival Morikawa can be backed at 22-1 for WGC glory. Day has gone almost five years without a victory, though, and is not as fearsome an opponent as he was in his pomp.

Morikawa, who won his WGC group last year, has matured in matchplay golf over the last few years and can boss Day, Victor Perez and Adam Svensson. Morikawa made his Ryder Cup debut in 2021, halving his singles with Viktor Hovland, then his Presidents Cup debut last year, thrashing Mito Pereira in the singles.

Next best bet

Patrick Cantlay 18-1

Like Morikawa, Cantlay made his Ryder Cup debut in 2021. He beat Shane Lowry 4&3. In two Presidents Cup appearances, Cantlay has beaten Joaquin Niemann and Adam Scott in the singles. The 2021 FedEx Cup champion has no weaknesses and is a daunting matchplay opponent.

Cantlay has played in the WGC-Match Play four times and has finished second in his group four times. Cameron Smith and Tiger Woods are among those who have edged him out. Cantlay has won plenty of matches at Austin, but been luckless.

This time, having got a great draw with Nick Taylor, Brian Harman and K.H Lee, an in-form Cantlay can go deep. He was third at Riviera and fourth at Bay Hill.

Austin Country Club course guide

Course Austin Country Club, Austin, Texas
Prize money $20m ($3.6m to the winner)
Length 7,108 yards
Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 64
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Jon Rahm (2), Rory McIlroy (3), Patrick Cantlay (4), Max Homa (6)
Tournament record Tiger Woods beat Stephen Ames 9&8 (2006 first round)

Course winners taking part Jason Day, Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler

When to bet By 2.15pm on WEDNESDAY

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 2.15pm on Wednesday

Time difference Texas is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week – Valspar Championship 1 T Moore (70-1), 2 A Schenk (125-1), T3 T Fleetwood (25-1), J Spieth (12-1), 5 W Clark (40-1), 6 S Burns (18-1), T7 M Wallace (175-1), C Gribble (400-1), W Simpson (125-1)

Format Round-robin format in the opening stage to keep everyone involved until Friday night. Players are in 16 four-man groups of 18-hole matchplay, with the group winners moving into a weekend knockout competition. The player with the best W-D-L record (most points) wins the group and matches can be halved (one point for win, half-point for draw). In the event of ties for first place in a group, sudden-death playoffs take place for the last-16 spots. The top 16 available players in the world rankings are top seeds in each of the 16 groups. A draw completed the sections. There are 32 group matches on Wednesday, 32 on Thursday and 32 on Friday. The last-16 matches and quarter-finals are on Saturday, with the semi-finals, consolation (third-place) match and final on Sunday

Course type Parkland

Course overview Austin Country Club took over as host in 2016. Designed by Pete Dye, it features pot bunkers, heavily undulating turf, creeks, canyons and forced carries. There are some short par-fours which are reachable by big-hitters

Story of last year Scottie Scheffler thrashed Kevin Kisner in the final to continue his winning streak

Weather forecast Cloudy and breezy for the first three days, then sunnier and calmer at the weekend

Type of player suited to the challenge Finding greens in regulation has been the key to WGC-Match Play success. Matchplay courage and stamina are other attributes required, with the champion having to play four matches over the weekend

Key attribute Accuracy