Steve Palmer's WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play final-day tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 3pm Sunday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy to win WGC-Match Play
4pts 11-5 Coral, Ladbrokes

Rory McIlroy to win WGC-Match Play (21-10) and Thomas Detry to win Corales Puntacana Championship (11-2)
1pt double bet365

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Story so far

The mood music coming out of PGA Tour headquarters is that this may be the final WGC – and certainly the last of the WGC-Match Play competitions – and the world of golf may be left to rue that decision. A Scottie Scheffler versus Rory McIlroy final will doubtless leave the public yearning for more Match Play action.

The dream final is not yet confirmed – we have reached the semi-final stage – but Scheffler and McIlroy remain in the tournament going into Sunday's denouement at Austin Country Club. Scheffler faces his good friend Sam Burns in the first semi, with McIlroy going up against Cameron Young in the second.

Scheffler is seeking to make the final for the third consecutive year. He lost to Billy Horschel in the 2021 final, before beating Kevin Kisner last year. McIlroy won the Match Play at a different course (Harding Park, California) in 2015, but has never made the final in Austin.

World number one Scheffler is 13-8 favourite going into the final day. World number three McIlroy can be backed at 9-4, with Cameron available at 4-1 with BoyleSports and outsider Burns a standout 11-2 with BoyleSports.

Semi-final line-up
Scottie Scheffler v Sam Burns (3.05pm UK and Ireland time)
Rory McIlroy v Cameron Young (3.20pm)

Best outright prices
13-8 S Scheffler, 11-5 R McIlroy, 4 C Young, 11-2 S Burns

Best semi-final prices
8-15 S Scheffler v 7-4 S Burns
8-13 R McIlroy v 11-8 C Young

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play final-day preview

Sunshine and calm skies look set to greet the players for a mouthwatering final day of WGC-Match Play action – perfect weather for Rory McIlroy to put on a show.

Ask Scottie Scheffler who is the best player in the world and he hesitates. Ask McIlroy and he is much more comfortable with the question. The four-time Major champion carries enormous self-belief – a deep sense of superiority – and that confidence could be crucial if the two highest-ranked players left in the competition meet in the final.

Scheffler and McIlroy had a duel of sorts for the Tour Championship title last August. Scheffler led McIlroy by six shots when they started the final round alongside each other at East Lake, but while the American stumbled to a 73, McIlroy fired a 66 to win by a shot, pocketing $18m in the process.

The psychological impact of East Lake may come back to haunt Scheffler if he meets McIlroy in the final at Austin Country Club. Scheffler's record on this track is awesome, but McIlroy has produced some sensational golf in the last few days and appears to be the one heading to the final day with a gallop.

Scheffler has had to battle hard to get past JT Poston and Jason Day in the previous knockout rounds. Scheffler's group rivals rolled over for him. Sam Burns has probably got a few too many loose drives in him to defeat his pal Scottie, but McIlroy is well equipped for the mission of downing the defending champion.

McIlroy, a total of 16 under par for his last two matches, can see off Cameron Young in the semis and Scheffler in the final to give himself the perfect pre-Masters fillip. Young has played superbly this week, but he fell over the line against Kurt Kitayama in the quarter-finals and the magnitude of the occasion seems likely to hit Young on Sunday.

The only PGA Tour maiden left in the event looks vulnerable against such legendary and daunting opposition. Young and his new caddie Paul Tesori have been enjoying themselves against relatively weak opposition – Davis Thompson, Corey Conners, Sepp Straka, Billy Horschel and Kitayama – but a semi against McIlroy is a different kettle of fish. The extra injection of tension will probably be enough to force a significant form dip in Young.

McIlroy to beat Scheffler in the final is the WGC prediction, while punters looking for an investment in the non-televised Corales Puntacana Championship are advised to stick with Thomas Detry.

Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament 20-1 headline recommendation is only a shot behind heading into the final round. The leaderboard is congested, but Detry has improved each round in the Dominican Republic and a bogey-free Saturday 65 has set him up superbly for a crack at a maiden PGA Tour title. The McIlroy-Detry double pays almost 20-1.

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