Steve Palmer's Valspar Championship first-round preview and free golf betting tips

Where to watch the Valspar Championship

Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am Thursday

Best bets

Jordan Spieth to miss cut
2pts 7-2 bet365

Matthew NeSmith to win 5.41pm threeball
2pts 11-8 general

Erik van Rooyen to miss cut
2pts Evens bet365

Pierceson Coody first-round leader
1pt each-way 100-1 bet365

Pierceson Coody top American
1pt each-way 80-1 bet365

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Valspar Championship first-round preview

There seems a good chance that the first two rounds of the Valspar Championship will be an unfair fight – and the two biggest names in the field may suffer in the wrong half of the draw.

Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas are out early in round one, then late for round two. The pair will start in temperatures of around 11C, while the later wave on Thursday can enjoy highs of 24C, then on Friday a calm morning is set to make way for stiff afternoon breezes.

The layers think Spieth and Thomas are too classy to miss the cut in what is a fairly humdrum field by PGA Tour standards, but the juicy odds are eyecatching. Thomas has said he loves Copperhead and is probably hitting his ball too well to miss out on weekend employment, but the 7-2 about Spieth missing the cut is more interesting.

Spieth would almost certainly have missed the cut in the Players Championship last week had his wild drive on his final hole of round two not clattered into the knee of a spectator. The tee shot was water-bound, but deflected back into the fairway, from where Spieth ended up conjuring a chip-in eagle three.

Spieth, appearing to suffer with injury niggles in the last few weeks, was loose with his driving at Sawgrass and will be punished for errant hitting at Copperhead. If his tee times provide an extra handicap, he may be packing his bags on Friday night.

Erik van Rooyen, who missed the cut by three shots in his only previous Valspar appearance, has been struggling for fitness and form in recent months. Nobody scored worse than Van Rooyen over 36 holes of the Honda Classic – his last start in Florida – and he could follow his pair of 77s there with two other stinkers in the Valspar. Evens about the South African missing the cut seems more than fair.

Matthew NeSmith, who carded a magnificent course-record 61 on his way to third place in last year's Valspar, looks the pick of the first-round threeball options at odds-against to defeat Brice Garnett and Kevin Tway, while Pierceson Coody seems great value in two markets.

Coody, a former world number one amateur and two-time Korn Ferry Tour champion, could get the best of the round one weather from one of the latest groups. Warm, calm skies seem assured, and rising star Coody can make merry. The youngster can be backed for first-round leader and top American.

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