Steve Palmer's Tour Championship predictions and free golf betting tips

When to bet

By 4.26pm on Thursday

Where to watch the Tour Championship

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Tour Championship predictions

Rory McIlroy
5pts each-way 7-2 Betfair, Hills, Power

Tommy Fleetwood
1pt each-way 60-1 Betfair, Power

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Punters assessing the 30-runner Tour Championship field must decide whether to have their bets in the market which includes the FedEx Cup handicaps (Tour Championship/FedEx Cup winner) or in the separate Tour Championship '72-hole strokeplay winner' market which ignores the FedEx handicaps.

Preference is for the market the players care about – the 72-hole strokeplay event is an irrelevance to the actual competitors – and two men are nominated as potential stars of the week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 7-2

The King of East Lake could cement that status this week by winning the FedEx Cup for a fourth time – Rory McIlroy can reel in Scottie Scheffler again for more Tour Championship glory.

McIlroy started last year's event as a 12-1 chance with a six-shot deficit, eventually winning by a shot. This time, the four-time Major champion can be backed at 7-2, with only three shots to make up on Scheffler, which seems a bargain.

McIlroy must be starting to feel invincible at East Lake. He opened last year's Tour Championship with a triple-bogey seven, pulling a drive out of bounds with his first shot, then followed up with a bogey at the second hole. He was ten shots behind with 70 holes to play, yet still managed to haul in Scheffler.

That first-hole debacle of 12 months ago should provide great freedom for McIlroy when he boards that tee again this week. No matter what happens – and how far behind he gets – the East Lake lover will still feel well in the hunt.

Two of the four Tour Championships since the handicap system was introduced have gone to the top seed – Dustin Johnson in 2020 and Patrick Cantlay in 2021 took advantage of pole position – but Scheffler seems a vulnerable 6-4 favourite for this one.

Scheffler appears set to waste a season of elite ball-striking. Poor putting has blighted the world number one this year and he looked at the end of his tether when interviewed after second place in the BMW Championship on Sunday. Having blown last year's Tour Championship, Scheffler is under immense pressure this week, and makes no appeal with Viktor Hovland, McIlroy and Jon Rahm breathing down his neck.

McIlroy has won this tournament three times in the last seven years. In the first of the handicap events (2019) he started five shots behind and won by four shots. His stellar driving is such an asset at this venue. And his motivation to repeat last year's FedEx Cup and DP World Tour Rankings double is high. Majors have proved a disappointment to McIlroy recently, but he takes great satisfaction from ending up as the top dog over the course of a whole season.

Over the last fortnight, McIlroy has been hitting his ball with huge authority, suffering with a cold putter. He has finished in the top ten in his last nine tournaments, winning the Scottish Open in that run, and a fourth FedEx Cup success seems on the cards. McIlroy is ultra-comfortable on the East Lake greens and should see an upturn in fortunes with putter in hand.

Next best bet

Tommy Fleetwood 60-1

The Europeans are buzzing after Hovland's BMW Championship masterclass on Sunday and Tommy Fleetwood can join his Ryder Cup pals on the Tour Championship leaderboard.

Fleetwood has been performing consistently well, following fifth place at Quail Hollow with a playoff defeat in the Canadian Open, fifth in the US Open, sixth in the Scottish Open, tenth in the Open and third in the St Jude Championship. He has not lifted a trophy, but has been swinging superbly, carding some super-low rounds.

A starting deficit of seven shots means Fleetwood must make positive strides from the off, with ten players ahead of him, but he is worth chancing at the odds. The Englishman is making his third East Lake start, with two solid previous spins behind him. Some firms are offering five each-way places.

East Lake course guide

Course East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia
Prize money $75m ($18m to the winner)
Length 7,346 yards
Par 70 – two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 30
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Jon Rahm (3), Patrick Cantlay (4), Viktor Hovland (5)
Course records - 72 holes 257 Tiger Woods (2007) 18 holes 60 Zach Johnson (2007)

Course winners taking part Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy (three), Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay

When to bet By 4.26pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Time difference Georgia is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week – BMW Championship 1 V Hovland (18-1), T2 S Scheffler (8-1), M Fitzpatrick (50-1), 4 R McIlroy (15-2), T5 B Harman (45-1), M Homa (25-1)

Format A handicap system has been in operation for the Tour Championship since 2019, with the FedEx Cup leader starting on ten under par, the second in the standings at eight under par, the third at seven under, fourth at six under, fifth at five under, sixth to tenth at four under, 11th to 15th at three under, 16th to 20th at two under, 21st to 25th at one under, and 26th to 30th at level par

Course type Parkland

Course overview East Lake is the curtain-closer to the PGA Tour season, with the most successful performers of the year ending their Stateside campaign in the Tour Championship. East Lake has hosted this event in 1998, 2000, 2002 and from 2004 onwards. The famous course was designed by Tom Bendelow and Donald Ross, but Rees Jones took charge of a redesign in 1994 and at the end of 2007 (he switched all the greens from bentgrass to Bermuda). It is extremely long for a par-70 and a SubAir drainage system means firm, fast greens are almost certain

Story of last year Rory McIlroy needed only 263 shots for 72 holes, overcoming a six-shot starting deficit to pip Scottie Scheffler by a shot

Weather forecast Sunny and calm for the vast majority of the event, with temperatures peaking at 37C. A thunderstorm threat for Sunday afternoon

Type of player suited to the challenge The fairways are notoriously difficult to hit at East Lake, so accurate drivers tend to prosper. There are only two par-fives and no easy birdies, so players who like to grind out plenty of pars can flourish

Key attribute Accuracy