Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational third-round tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 3.30pm Saturday

Best bets

Collin Morikawa top-five finish
3pts 4-5 bet365

Tiger Woods round-three score of 72 or worse
2pts Evens Betfair

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Story so far

Max Homa tied for the lead after round one of the Genesis Invitational, then moved ahead on his own in round two, reaching ten under par through 36 holes at Riviera Country Club.

Homa, who won the Genesis in 2021, has shortened from 22-1 to 3-1 for more Riviera glory, but the local hero is being edged for halfway favouritism by world number three Jon Rahm.

Two eagles helped Rahm to a Friday 68 which left the Spaniard only a shot behind Homa into a share for second place with Keith Mitchell and Lee Hodges.

Rahm's rivals in the ongoing battle for the world-number-one spot are not far behind him in California. Rory McIlroy is three shots behind Rahm, while Scottie Scheffler, who reclaimed top-dog status after winning in Phoenix last Sunday, is a further two shots off the pace.

Darkness curtailed round two prematurely, so it will need finishing on Saturday morning before a cut is made. Some players have four holes to play. The cut will fall at one over par, meaning Tiger Woods, along with Xander Schauffele, will make the weekend on the mark. Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose and Hideki Matsuyama have all missed the cut.

Leaderboard
-10 Max Homa
-9 Keith Mitchell, Jon Rahm, Lee Hodges
-8 Collin Morikawa
-7 Patrick Cantlay
-6 Rory McIlroy, Matt Kuchar

Best prices
5-2 J Rahm, 3 M Homa, 13-2 C Morikawa, 9 R McIlroy, 11 P Cantlay, 12 K Mitchell, 22 L Hodges, 33 bar

Third-round preview

The latest in the series of $20m elevated PGA Tour events has thrown up another top-class leaderboard heading into the weekend, with Jon Rahm getting an immediate chance to avenge his Phoenix defeat to Scottie Scheffler.

Rahm topped and tailed his second round nicely, opening with an eagle and covering his final six holes in four under par, but there was a worrying spell in the middle for his backers. Tetchy with the galleries and struggling on the greens, Rahm showed signs of fragility which will have encouraged those around him on the leaderboard.

A sunny, calm weekend lies in store – and scoring can be expected to improve. That bodes well for Max Homa, who is ultra-comfortable on these Riviera greens and tops the putting stats through two rounds of the Genesis.

Homa, with Genesis form figures of 5-1-10 from the last three years and fresh from victory in the Farmers Insurance Open last month, is full of confidence. A quickfire California double could be on the cards.

Homa, Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament 22-1 headline recommendation, has become such a solid all-rounder that positions like this one no longer faze him. He has grown comfortable playing with the likes of Rahm and able to concentrate on his own game. Homa has developed a fan club the world over but at Riviera – at an event he attended as a kid – the Californian is particularly popular.

Rahm and Rory McIlroy are being shown enormous respect in the outright market, but punters may be better off concentrating on the Californians around them. Rahm has been in the thick of things on the PGA Tour all year and showed signs on Saturday of some contention fatigue in his fifth event of the year. McIlroy has failed to find top gear this year and was well below his best over the opening 36 holes at Riv.

The main threats to Homa may come from Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay. Morikawa continues to exude tee-to-green control, while Cantlay stepped up a level from the seventh hole onwards in round two, enjoying a bogey-free, five-under-par stretch to the clubhouse from there. The chances of a home-state winner appear high.

Morikawa appeals at a shade of odds-on for a top-five finish. He has finished in the top five in two of his three PGA Tour starts this year and Riviera is a dreamy set-up for the Los Angeles lad.

The other Saturday investment opportunity which catches the eye is the evens about Tiger Woods carding a round of 72 or worse. Woods has performed heroically again to make the weekend after so long away – another chapter in his unrivalled book of achievements – but his game was unravelling over the closing holes of round two.

Woods admitted pre-tournament that playing 72 holes over four days would be a challenging physically for him – and there seems every chance of his scorecard getting dirty in round three. Every round appears likely to get tougher for Woods and this week's 69-74 start may see an even bigger number posted on Saturday.

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