Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational final-round tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Scottie Scheffler to win Arnold Palmer Invitational
3pts 11-5 Coral, Ladbrokes

Viktor Hovland to win 6.20pm twoball
3pts 4-6 bet365

Martin Laird to win 3.35pm twoball
1pt 11-10 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Tyrrell Hatton-Scottie Scheffler dual forecast
1pt 10-1 bet365

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Story so far

Kurt Kitayama holed from 17 feet on the 18th hole of round three to make a last-gasp birdie and regain his Arnold Palmer Invitational lead.

Halfway pacesetter Kitayama made a poor start on Saturday, covering the front nine in three over par, but a back-nine rally put the PGA Tour maiden back on top. The ante-post 200-1 chance has become 13-2 with 18 holes to play at Bay Hill.

The reason the leader can be backed at such a big price is the quality of the chasing pack. Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland are only a shot behind, with Tyrrell Hatton, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth also on the leaderboard.

Scheffler, who closed round three with a trio of birdies to charge up the board, has shortened from a pre-tournament 10-1 to become 9-4 Sunday favourite. Hovland is 4-1 from an ante-post 28-1.

The final Sunday twoball of Kitayama and Hovland is scheduled on the tee at 6.20pm UK and Ireland time. After a windy Friday and Saturday, a gentle breeze is set to blow in Orlando on Sunday, with a thunderstorm threat for late in the afternoon.

Leaderboard
-9 Kurt Kitayama
-8 Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler
-7 Tyrrell Hatton
-6 Rory McIlroy, Harris English
-5 Pierceson Coody, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth
-4 Max Homa, Cameron Young

Best prices
9-4 S Scheffler, 4 V Hovland, 13-2 K Kitayama, 7 T Hatton, R McIlroy, 22 J Thomas, 28 J Spieth, H English, 50 M Homa, 66 H English, 80 P Coody, 100 bar

Final-round preview

The PGA Tour's new 'elevated' events load the field with quality and make it likely that members of the elite will be in contention for round four – and the Arnold Palmer Invitational has a mouthwatering cast for Sunday's denouement.

Jon Rahm has faded to 44th place, following a Thursday 65 with a pair of 76s, but the two men contesting world-number-one status with the Spaniard are right in the thick of things. World number two Scottie Scheffler will be sensing a golden opportunity to bank another enormous cheque.

The temperament of Scheffler is arguably second to none – and that coolness could be the key to him emerging triumphant at Bay Hill. He is the defending champion and may be set to repeat the Phoenix Open and Arnold Palmer win double he managed last year.

PGA Tour chiefs have not allowed Bay Hill to get as firm and fast as it has for previous weekends, but with no significant wind forecast for round four, the set-up will probably be made as difficult as possible for Sunday, with tough pins and unreceptive greens. Rory McIlroy has been extremely critical of the weekend set-ups at Bay Hill in recent years, while Viktor Hovland has also spoken negatively about it, so that pair may not have the right attitude for Sunday's battle. Any early setbacks could lead to tantrums. McIlroy has carded a 76 in each of his last three Bay Hill Sundays.

Scheffler, in contrast, rarely lets anything bother him. Despite some loose driving, the Masters champion enjoyed a fairly cosy victory in Phoenix last month, winning his first 'elevated' event. And despite two days carrying a cold putter in Orlando this week, he has moved into second place with a round to go.

The penultimate twoball is arguably the one for outright punters to concentrate on. Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament headline selection Tyrrell Hatton has shortened from 35-1 to 7-1, having lit up the back-nine in round three, going five under par for his final eight holes.

Orlando-based Hatton loves Bay Hill, where he won the Arnold Palmer in 2020, and was beaten by only a shot last year. Despite his fiery nature, Hatton has shown an ability to stay patient and grind a good score at Bay Hill, and he seems a huge title threat from only two shots off the pace.

It would be remarkable if Kurt Kitayama was able to repel all of the world-class talent nipping at his heels. The leader seemed exhausted after round three, almost close to tears as he described the way he fought back on Saturday, and it would come as no surprise should the maiden get quickly swamped on Sunday.

Hatton backers on at a juicy price should probably be considering a cover shot on Scheffler at 9-4. Punters yet to get involved may be interested in the dual forecast market – for which Hatton and Scheffler can be backed at 10-1 (to finish first and second in either order).

Hovland's ball-striking has been rock-solid this week and the Norwegian could be set for third spot. Loads of chipping will probably be required if the Bay Hill greenkeepers speed things up, which could deny Hovland victory, but it would be a surprise should the former world number three fail to outscore playing partner Kitayama. The leader seems likely to destroy his scorecard with a loose drive or two at some stage.

Evergreen veteran Padraig Harrington has been impressing everyone with his longevity, but the Irishman can be opposed as twoball favourite against former Bay Hill champion Martin Laird.

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