Mexico Open final-round tips and best bets: Rahm ready to hunt down Finau

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf & Main Event, from 3.30pm

Best bets

Jon Rahm to win Mexico Open
2pts 13-8 general

Story so far

Jon Rahm and Tony Finau fought out the finish of the 2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta and lightning has struck twice a year later with the top two in the pre-tournament betting poised for a final-round scrap for another PGA Tour title.

While Rahm was the one setting the pace in 2022, this time Finau will hold sway heading into the final 18 holes, the Utah man boasting a two-shot lead through 54 holes as a Saturday 65 saw him reach 19-under.

However, Rahm charged at the leader on Saturday, carding a sublime ten-under 61 to move within two shots and securing a place in the final group in the process.

Masters hero Rahm is joined at 17-under by rising star Akshay Bhatia, while Brandon Wu, a runner-up alongside Finau a year ago, is the only other man within five of the lead.

Leaderboard
-19 T Finau
-17 A Bhatia, J Rahm
-16 B Wu
-13 W Gordon
-12 A Smotherman

Best prices
5-6 T Finau, 13-8 J Rahm, 10 A Bhatia, 20 B Wu, 150 W Gordon, 1,000 bar.

Mexico Open final-round predictions

With Finau a 5-6 shot and Rahm available at 13-8, the layers believe this will boil down to a battle between comfortably the two highest-ranked players in the Vidanta Vallarta field.

Bhatia is an exciting talent but he's never been in this position against such illustrious opposition and it's likely that the 21-year-old wobbles from the final group, leaving one of Finau or Rahm to take the title.

Finau holds the built-in advantage of a two-shot lead and he's shown he can win PGA Tour titles, claiming three from July 2022 onwards, but the 33-year-old will be well aware that Rahm is going to come after him from the get-go.

The Spaniard is brimming with self-belief having won four times this year, all in higher-grade contests than this, and his Tournament of Champions victory in January, where he overturned a seven-shot deficit to defeat Collin Morikawa, shows that he's comfortable being the chaser as well as the pacesetter.

Rahm is made for Vidanta Vallarta, a wide golf course which demands accurate approaches, and he showed just how suited he is to the venue with his superb third-round performance.

Things can change very quickly on this low-scoring layout and Rahm will relish the chance to go toe-to-toe with a high-class rival. His winning mentality could make the difference in what should be an epic battle.

The final group will tee off at 5.47pm UK & Ireland time.

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