Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Final-round betting tips and preview

Sky Sports Golf, 6pm

Paul Casey heads into the final round of the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a three-shot lead, which is great news for Racing Post golf punters who followed Wednesday's advice to back the Surrey slugger for glory at 33-1.

Casey has had just two bogeys all week and carded a 67 at Spyglass in a round that included four birdies in his final ten holes to take a firm grip of affairs.

Four-time tournament winner Phil Mickelson started the final round as his nearest challenger and Lefty may be heartened by the fact that Casey's record of getting over the line is far from exemplary.

On the three occasions Casey had held the 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour, he has failed to convert.

He saw a three-shot advantage slip away at TPC Boston two years ago when Rory McIlroy stormed out of the pack with a closing 65 and Casey was also pipped by Xander Schauffele in that year's Tour Championship after heading into Sunday two shots ahead.

Further bad memories would come if he recalls the four-shot lead at the Travelers Championship that slipped away when Bubba Watson fired a 63.

So while his backers are in a strong position, it may be a good time to lay off some of their investment or look for value alternatives as we head into the final day.

Mickelson, who carded a 60 in the opening round of the Desert Classic a fortnight ago but finished second, is 9-2 and he hung on well with a 70 on Pebble Beach yesterday, the course of the three used this week that all players will face today.

Lucas Glover could maintain a strong challenge

However, there looks a decent chance that former US Open champion Lucas Glover will be able to maintain a strong challenge from a further shot in arrears.

Glover shot 66 at Pebble Beach in Friday's second round and while he has had some much-publicised domestic problems, he has performed well since he finished second at the Web.com Tour Championship.

The 39-year-old from South Carolina missed the cut in Phoenix last week but his 12th at the Desert Classic seven days earlier was his fifth successive top-20 finish so his game is clearly in good nick.

If Casey gets off to a bad start then there are 12 players within six shots of the lead and it is quite possible Glover could slip under the radar.

As far as match betting is concerned, Rafa Cabrera-Bello continues to impress and should relish the challenge of partnering Jason Day.

The Spaniard shot a 68 on Pebble Beach on Friday and, while Day is one of the top players in the world with an excellent record at the venue, Cabrera-Bello could be a value pick for their 4.55pm GMT showdown.

He missed the cut last time out at the Dubai Desert Classic but made the top 20 in each of his five tournaments before that, so could prove a big price at 8-5.

Recommendations
L Glover to win Pebble Beach Pro-Am
1pt each-way 14-1 general
R Cabrera-Bello to win twoball4.55pm
1pt 8-5 Betfred

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