Nedbank Challenge: Steve Palmer's final-round preview, best bet, free golf tip

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 7am Sunday

Best bet

Louis Oosthuizen to win the Nedbank Challenge
2pts 17-10 Hills

Story so far

Zander Lombard leads the Nedbank Challenge by a shot going into the final round, the European Tour maiden shortening from 175-1 to 100-30 over the opening 54 holes at the Gary Player Country Club, South Africa.

Lombard, who has twice finished second on the European Tour in the 2016 Joburg Open and the 2017 Rocco Forte Open, has won once on the Sunshine Tour. That came in the 2018 Vodacom Origins, which is played over just three rounds, and Nedbank glory would be his biggest career achievement by an enormous amount.

Louis Oosthuizen, the 2010 Open champion, is tied for second place, alongside Thomas Detry, who, like Lombard, is bidding to win on the European Tour for the first time, then there is a two-shot gap to those sharing fourth place.

Tommy Fleetwood, 14-1 pre-tournament joint-second favourite with Henrik Stenson and Matthew Fitzpatrick, is tied for 12th spot. Fleetwood has a six-shot Sunday deficit to overcome, while Stenson and Fitzpatrick are a further two and three shots adrift respectively.

Leaderboard
-11 Zander Lombard
-10 Louis Oosthuizen, Thomas Detry
-8 Oliver Wilson, Marcus Kinhult
-6 Lee Westwood, Mikko Korhonen, Bernd Wiesberger, Jason Scrivener, JB Hansen, Aaron Rai
-5 Joost Luiten, Nacho Elvira, Tommy Fleetwood

Best prices
17-10 L Oosthuizen, 100-30 Z Lombard, 7-2 T Detry, 14 M Kinhult, 25 O Wilson, 33 B Wiesberger, 35 L Westwood, 55 T Fleetwood, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Zander Lombard is one of the most inconsistent players on the circuit and there must be every chance to brittle youngster completely unravels when defending a lead on the final day of the Nedbank Challenge.

This event is known as Africa's Major and would be an immense title for Lombard to claim as his first on the European Tour. The 24-year-old has made a habit in his short time on the Tour of going from the sublime to the ridiculous, and it is far from guaranteed that he retains the form he has shown over the first three days at Gary Player Country Club.

Lombard's career earnings on the European Tour are €1,220,181 and he is in pole position to claim a Nedbank first prize of $2,500,000, so the winner's cheque seems bound to weigh heavily on the mind of the leader. Expect antsy Zander to wilt in the Sun City sunshine and for the home support to turn emphatically in the direction of Louis Oosthuizen.

The former world number four always had the potential to outclass this field, which is short of strength in depth, and even pre-tournament illness has not been able to stop Oosthuizen from getting into contention. He was in hospital in the early hours of the morning prior to round one, suffering with kidney stones, but carded a remarkable Thursday 63 and has followed up with a 72 and a 71, setting up a golden opportunity of a first Nedbank crown.

Oosthuizen is course winner, courtesy of the 2007 Dimenson Data Pro-Am, and he is swinging superbly. As long as no after-effects from the early-week health scare hinder him on Sunday – and his condition has apparently improved as the event has gone on – the nine-time European Tour champion is clearly the man to beat from this leaderboard.

Thomas Detry is fortunate to be alongside Oosthuizen on the board. The Belgian has enjoyed some lucky breaks of jaw-dropping proportions, headlined by his hooked drive at the 17th hole in round two which rebounded off the top of a thin pole to stop his ball going into the water.

Detry, like Lombard, is seeking a breakthrough and seems likely to make too many mental errors down the stretch. As soon as he has hit the front this week, a destructive drive or a short missed putt has followed, and this may be too prestigious a title for Detry to secure. Being up against two South Africans in Sun City is far from ideal.

Lee Westwood, Bernd Wiesberger and Tommy Fleetwood seem likely to gallop to the line and could run into places, but they have probably all let Oosthuizen get too far ahead of them. The ante-post advice was a hearty investment in Oosthuizen – and bookmakers are still not showing the former Open champion enough respect.

Given the likelihood that Lombard and Detry find the occasion too much on a course where loose drives are severely punished, it is a surprise to see such juice left in the price of Oosthuizen, who is surely by far the most likely winner. A press-up at 17-10 is recommended.

Lombard, Detry and Oosthuizen are scheduled on the first tee at 7.50am UK and Ireland time in the final threeball, with sunny, hot, calm weather forecast.

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport