Lucas Bjerregaard can leave playing partner behind

Sky Sports Golf, 7am Thursday

The DP World Tour Championship competitors tee off in Race to Dubai order for round one, meaning that Francesco Molinari and Tommy Fleetwood go out last at 8.40am UK & Ireland time, the Ryder Cup partners renewing their relationship.

Fleetwood might edge out his pal in the final contest of the day, but a safer bet is Lucas Bjerregaard to outscore Eddie Pepperell in their 8am duel. The Danish powerhouse has a significant length advantage over the English plodder at the Earth Course, which should prove decisive.

Bjerregaard signed off with a 65 in the Nedbank Challenge on Sunday, a score bettered by only a triumphant Lee Westwood, and the stellar round was a continuation of fantastic European Tour form. Bjerregaard has finished in the top 20 in eight of his last nine events, including victory in the Dunhill Links Championship and a playoff defeat in the European Masters.

Pepperell is becoming plagued by injuries and seems far less certain to perform well in round one. He has not competed since winning the British Masters a month ago, withdrawing on the eve of the HSBC Champions, which was going to be his WGC debut. The Oxfordshire man must have been seriously crocked – he said his back was so bad he could not move – to pass up the chance of a WGC event with no cut and a guaranteed cheque.

Bjerregaard is the bet of the day, but Kiradech Aphibarnrat to beat Russell Knox (7.40am) is another solid option. Aphibarnrat, fourth in the HSBC last month, finished runner-up behind Jon Rahm at the Earth Course last year.

This is not a layout which plays to the strengths of Knox, who is making his course debut, and the Scot has been in poor form.

Recommendations
L Bjerregaard
4pts 21-20 BoyleSports
K Aphibarnrat
3pts Evens Betfair, Paddy Power

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