European Masters: Steve Palmer's final-round analysis, free tips, TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 11am Sunday

Story so far

Andres Romero, freely available at 300-1 ante-post, leads the European Masters by a shot going into the final round.

The Argentinian, bidding to follow in the footsteps of his compatriots Eduardo Romero and Ricardo Gonzalez by becoming Crans-sur-Sierre champion, is 14 under par with 18 holes to play.

Romero can be backed at a best-price 9-2 to convert his slender advantage into victory, but co-favouritism is in the hands of Ryder Cup stars Tommy Fleetwood and Rory McIlroy, who are both available at 100-30.

Fleetwood is two shots behind, tied for third place, while McIlroy is a further shot off the pace, in a four-way share of fifth spot.

Leaderboard
-14 Andres Romero
-13 Wade Ormsby
-12 Gavin Green, Tommy Fleetwood-11 Rory McIlroy, Lorenzo Gagli, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Kalle Samooja
-10 Matthias Schwab, Sergio Garcia, Renato Paratore, Sebastian Soderberg

Best prices
100-30 T Fleetwood, R McIlroy, 9-2 A Romero, 6 W Ormsby, 11 G Green, 20 C Bezuidenhout, 25 S Garcia, 40 K Samooja, M Schwab, L Gagli, 66 R Paratore, 100 bar

Final-round advice

Andres Romero is the world No. 735, who has missed three of his last four cuts, finishing 51st in the event in which he managed to qualify for weekend employment. He missed the cut by three shots in the Scandinavian Invitation last week, so there were no obvious signs that he would contend at Crans-sur-Sierre.

Romero has won once on the Challenge Tour (2005), twice on the European Tour (2007 and 2017) and once on the PGA Tour (2008), but is wildly inconsistent. Both his European Tour successes have come in Germany, most recently by a shot in the 2017 BMW International.

The leader was five under par for his final six holes of round three, instilling confidence for Sunday, but his lack of recent success and career stability means it would be a surprise should he stay on the front foot in round four.

Tommy Fleetwood was five under par for his final ten holes of round three and seems better value than Rory McIlroy at the head of the market. McIlroy will be disappointed with his bogey, bogey finish and has left himself little margin for error going into the denouement.

A tight finish seems likely, but the best value option of all may be Sergio Garcia, who seems well in the hunt, given his flying finish to the third round and a four-shot Sunday deficit.

Garcia, who has a home in Crans and is entirely comfortable in the conditions, won this event in 2005 and could use a late-season fillip after tumbling to 43rd in the world rankings. Three weeks off seems to have revived the Spaniard and he was seven under par for his final 12 holes of round three.

Having gone from three under par and well out of contention to ten under par and in the thick of things, the mercurial Garcia will have a spring in his step, and if Romero and Wade Ormsby falter, as can be expected, in the final group, the former Masters champion can take advantage.

The 25-1 Garcia is too generous about a 15-time European Tour winner, while Fleetwood and McIlroy are worth supporting for their final-round threeballs – both facing weak, nervous opposition. Fleetwood is up against Romero and Ormsby in the final match (11.10am UK and Ireland time), while McIlroy is alongside Lorenzo Gagli and Sebastian Soderberg.

Outright recommendation
S Garcia
1pt each-way 25-1 Betway

Threeballs recommendations
T Fleetwood
2pts 8-11 general

R McIlroy
2pts 4-7 Ladbrokes, Sky Bet

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