DP World Tour Championship: Steve Palmer's preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the DP World Tour Championship at the Earth Course, Dubai, on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 7am Thursday

Best bets

Tom Lewis
2pts each-way 80-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
Back this tip with Coral
Thomas Pieters
2pts each-way 66-1 Sky Bet
Back this tip with bet365

Rory McIlroy has been all the rage for the DP World Tour Championship in his beloved Dubai, where he has twice won this event as well as the Desert Classic, but the remaining 4-1 gives nothing away. The favourite, despite his recent brilliance in winning at East Lake and Sheshan International, can be passed over.

Many punters will see McIlroy as an each-way bet to nothing given his course and current form. But his usual caddie is missing this week, which is enough to dissuade a chunk at the skinny odds. Harry Diamond has just become a father, so former Ulster rugby star Niall O'Connor is carrying McIlroy's bag for one week only, which could have an unsettling effect on the favourite.

Jon Rahm has not competed for seven weeks, so the Spaniard could be rusty on his return to action. This is a high-class affair where a slow start could see chances rapidly disappear. McIlroy and Rahm are class acts but value-seekers should be delving deeper in the betting.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Tom Lewis 80-1

Two underrated outsiders appeal as the best options for the DP World Tour Championship, with Hertfordshire man Tom Lewis ready to show why he was once rated one of the most promising youngsters on the planet.

Lewis enjoyed a stellar amateur career before co-leading the 2011 Open after round one, then winning on the European Tour in just his third start as a professional. He was expected to immediately enter the elite, but some lean seasons followed before he burst into life in the second half of last year.

A five-shot victory on the Challenge Tour was followed by a second success in the Portugal Masters and a run through the European Tour Final Series which culminated in seventh place on his DP World Tour Championship debut.

His liking for the Earth Course, where he topped the greens-in-regulation stats last season, underlined a general suitability to desert assignments like this one. The free-swinging 28-year-old, blessed with plenty of power, started this term with ninth place in Abu Dhabi and third in the Saudi International. The welcoming fairways of desert layouts allow Lewis to let loose.

During the low point of his career, the $3m first prize on offer this week may have intimidated Lewis, but he has shown himself to be full of guts on many occasions and since September 1 he has walked with the swagger of a PGA Tour member. A stunning five-shot victory in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship booked him a ticket to the big time, so he should be banking big cheques next year. With such job security and a wonderful future ahead, Lewis can approach the task of a mega-bucks European Tour finale with confidence.

Since the Korn Ferry heroics, Lewis has finished fifth in the Dunhill Links, eighth in the Portugal Masters and 13th in the Nedbank Challenge last week, a particularly eyecatching effort given he was 67th of 72 runners in the previous Nedbank. The Earth Course suits him better and he has arrived in fine fettle.

Next best bet

Thomas Pieters 66-1

The dimensions of the Earth Course also appeal to Belgian bomber Thomas Pieters, who closed with a 67 for 12th place last year. The four-time European Tour champion, three times a top-five finisher in the Abu Dhabi Championship, possesses the tools to tame desert tracks and has also shown he carries enough bottle to handle a $3m assignment.

Pieters top scored on his Ryder Cup debut – in an away side who were thrashed – and his last three European Tour victories have come by a one-shot margin. In a tight finish on Sunday, with fortunes on the line, the cool 27-year-old can be fancied to hold his nerve better than most.

Pieters won the Czech Masters in the middle of August and has performed solidly since, a closing 69 for 30th place in the Nedbank on Sunday a perfectly acceptable result for someone with only one top-ten to his name in South Africa.

A cold putter has been hampering Pieters since his Prague success, but his imperious ball-striking should be shown to great effect this week and any warming of the flat stick will make him a serious title contender.

Players to note

Henrik Stenson
The Swede won this event in 2013 and 2014, as well as the 2007 Dubai Desert Classic, and he used to live in the city. He seems to like the new three-wood he has put in his bag and can be fancied to run into a place.

Victor Perez
The greens-in-regulation machine has followed up his Dunhill Links victory with fourth place in the WGC-HSBC Champions and a playoff defeat in the Turkish Airlines Open. The Frenchman is making his Earth Course debut, but should enjoy the assignment.

Romain Langasque
Another dangerous French debutant who has arrived full of zest and is well suited to the course. The maiden finished ninth in Turkey the week before last.

Tommy Fleetwood
The Nedbank champion enjoyed some good fortune on his way to victory, but the final-round 65 was a timely reminder of his tee-to-green class and the two-time Abu Dhabi champ could ride the wave on a ball-strikers' track this week.

Justin Rose
The two-time Earth Course runner-up has the course credentials to potentially shrug off an uncharacteristically inconsistent recent spell.

Bernd Wiesberger
The Austrian giant took control of the Race to Dubai with third place in the Nedbank and he was fourth in the 2016 DP World Tour Championship.

Earth Course guide

Course Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Prize money €7.23m (€2.71m to the winner)
Length 7,677 yards
Par 72
Field 50
Course records- 72 holes 263 Henrik Stenson (2013) 18 holes 62 Justin Rose (2012)

Course winners taking part Lee Westwood, Rory McIlroy (twice), Henrik Stenson (twice), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jon Rahm, Danny Willett

When to bet By 4.30am tomorrow

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 7am tomorrow

Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Nedbank Challenge 1 T Fleetwood (14-1), 2 M Kinhult (66-1), T3 J Scrivener (90-1), B Wiesberger (28-1), T Detry (45-1), T6 L Westwood (33-1), L Oosthuizen (9-1)

Course overview The Greg Norman-designed Earth Course was specifically built to be the venue for the European Tour's season finale. The Volvo Masters at Valderrama traditionally signalled the end of the European Tour campaign, but in 2009 the Race to Dubai started and the Jumeirah Golf Estates became home for the curtain-closer. The fairways are wide and there is little in the way of tree trouble. The 186-yard par-three sixth hole over water has the scope for disasters, while the 499-yard par-four ninth hole is another significant challenge on the front nine. The last four holes fall just short of a mile long in total and Norman labelled it “the most challenging mile in golf”. The 195-yard par-three 17th has an island green, while the 620-yard par-five 18th has a stream which splits the fairway in two, so much late drama can occur. The greens are large, undulating and quick, with plenty of run-off areas. Despite Norman's bluster, his track has been humbled by winning scores of between 14 and 25 under par in all ten previous editions

Story of last year An emotional Danny Willett repelled Patrick Reed and Matt Wallace to end a victory drought of more than two years

Weather forecast Sunny and hot throughout, with breezy afternoons, peaking on Thursday

Type of player suited to the challenge This long layout with wide fairways typically plays into the hands of the big-hitters and Matthew Fitzpatrick (2016) is the only short driver to have won any of the ten previous editions

Key attribute Power

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