Don't question Abraham Ancer on Mayakoba assignment

Sky Sports Golf from 6pm Thursday

Rickie Fowler is all the rage for the Mayakoba Classic after he fired a final-round 63 for fourth place in the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open on Sunday. Fowler, Mayakoba runner-up last year, is poor value as a result of the plunge.

Fowler does not win enough to be trusted at skinny odds and he was troubled by injury niggles at the end of last season. Tony Finau seems stuck on one US Tour victory, while Jordan Spieth must be wondering whether he will ever rediscover his A-game after spluttering to 55th place in the Shriners.

Palmer's top tip
Abraham Ancer 40-1
Mexico's best player looks to have an outstanding opportunity to give the El Camaleon galleries a tournament victory to cheer – the fast-improving Abraham Ancer can land a maiden US Tour title in glorious fashion.

Ancer is a 27-year-old who has lifted his game to a new level over the last four months. Fourth place in the Quicken Loans National was followed by fifth in the Canadian Open, seventh in the Dell Technologies Championship, fifth in the CIMB Classic and fourth in the Shriners Open on Sunday.

From 203rd in the world rankings prior to the Quicken Loans, Ancer broke into the top 100 for the first time on Sunday, and confidence is flooding through his system. This fierce character looks the sort to be inspired by home support, rather than burdened by it, and El Camaleon sets up perfectly for his talents.

Ancer arrived for this tournament last year off six-week form figures of 66-MC-MC-37-68-MC, opening with a humdrum 71 and looking jaded. Three excellent rounds later he had elevated himself to ninth place.

That performance came as world number 287 and as a US Tour rookie. This time he tees up established on the main circuit, bursting with form, his trademark driving accuracy suddenly married to a red-hot putter. He won on the Web.com Tour in 2015 and looks ready to make waves at a higher level three years later.

Next best
Emiliano Grillo 22-1
A Mexican and an Argentinian could duel for the title on Sunday night - Emiliano Grillo is also perfectly suited to the dimensions of El Camaleon. Grillo finds fairways for fun and loves this assignment, underlined by solid finishes of tenth and ninth in his two previous visits.

Grillo got off the mark on the US Tour in the autumn of 2015 – his Web.com Tour victory also came at this time of the year – and some excellent golf this October has set him up nicely for a Mayakoba title tilt. Second place in the CIMB Classic was followed by a share of 14th spot in the high-class WGC-HSBC Champions last time out.

Grillo lies 50th in the world rankings and needs to stay in the top 50 by the end of the year to access the biggest events for next season. Full focus seems assured.

Other selections
Si Woo Kim 33-1
Richy Werenski 200-1
Si Woo Kim fans will be shocked and excited in equal measure by the fact he topped the putting stats in the Shiners Open last week. If the 23-year-old Korean has found a putting stroke to complement his typically magnificent ball-striking, the world of golf had better watch out.

Kim, a five-shot winner of his maiden US Tour title in 2016 before winning the Players Championship by three shots last year, has started the new US Tour season with rock-solid form figures of 10-23-15. Last year he finished third at Mayakoba despite starting the season with ugly figures of 77-44-69. El Camaleon is a fantastic fit for Kim.

Ancer, Grillo and Kim are the main fancies, but spare some stake money for Richy Werenski, a maiden who finished strongly for 23rd spot in the Shriners.

Werenski won on the Web.com Tour in 2016, is a two-time US Tour runner-up, he is accurate and well suited to El Camaleon, has made the cut in his two previous visits despite arriving in dire form, and second place in the 2016 Mexico Championship (Web) shows a liking for the country. The 26-year-old is still improving and worth chancing at massive prices.

Others to note
Billy Horschel
The 2014 FedEx Cup champion is the recommendation for punters wanting five strings to their bow. He has been generally impressive for four months and is well suited to the course.

Cameron Davis
The promising Australian youngster has made a solid start to life on the US Tour and this week returns to the venue where he won the 2016 Eisenhower Trophy.

Joaquin Niemann
The rising star struck his ball superbly on his way to tenth place in the Shriners last week, enjoying a hole-in-one. A breakthrough seems inevitable soon, but he is making his Mayakoba debut.

Chez Reavie
The accurate Kansas man, fourth and 14th in the last two Mayakoba Classics, is well suited to this assignment, and finished seventh in the CJ Cup last month.

Bill Haas
The 2011 FedEx Cup champion is getting his act together at the end of a difficult year, finishing tenth and 14th in his two latest starts. He was fifth in his last Mayakoba start (2007).

CT Pan
The accurate youngster is well suited to El Camaleon and arrives with six months of solid form behind him.

Staking plan
A Ancer
2pts each-way 40-1 Sky Bet
E Grillo
2pts each-way 22-1 bet365
S W Kim
1.5pts each-way 33-1 Betfred, Sky Bet
R Werenski
0.5pt each-way 200-1 Betfred

The lowdown

Course El Camaleon Golf Club, Playa del Carmen, Mexico

Prize money $7.2m ($1.278m to the winner)

Length 6,987 yards Par 71 Field 132

Course records – 72 holes 263 Harris English (2013), Pat Perez (2016) 18 holes 61 Roland Thatcher (2008)

Course winners taking part Brian Gay, John Huh, Harris English, Charley Hoffman, Graeme McDowell, Pat Perez, Patton Kizzire

When to bet By noon Thursday

Where to watch Live on Sky Sports from 6pm Thursday

Time difference Mexico is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open 1 B DeChambeau (14-1), 2 P Cantlay (20-1), 3 S Ryder (80-1), T4 R Fowler (11-1), A Ancer (80-1), R Streb (200-1), T7 R Palmer (75-1), C Hadley (50-1), L Glover (70-1)

Course overview The Mayakoba US Tour gathering takes place on the stunning Greg Norman-designed El Camaleon.

This tournament, which started in 2007, was previously staged in February, running alongside the Accenture Match Play, until getting its own fall date in 2013.

One minute on this layout, the competitors are working their way through holes deep in tropical jungle and the next they emerge to oceanside holes where bare-chested spectators watch the action from the beach.

El Camaleon is a quirky, fiddly track with limestone canals bisecting certain holes and there is even a cave which splits the first fairway into two sections. Sound course management is required, although scores in the low 60s have been recorded regularly by players with fairway-finding ability.

Story of last year Weather delays meant a 36-hole Sunday in which US Tour maiden Patton Kizzire emerged triumphant, defeating Rickie Fowler by a shot.

Weather forecast Hot, sunny and calm throughout

Type of player suited to challenge The Mayakoba honours board is filled with accurate drivers and it appears the only way to compete at El Camaleon is from the fairway.

With peculiar troublespots waiting to punish the errant, precision operators like Fred Funk, Brian Gay, Mark Wilson, John Huh, Graeme McDowell and Pat Perez have relished the challenge.

Key attribute Accuracy

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