Czech Masters: Steve Palmer's final-round analysis, free tips, TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 12 noon Sunday

Story so far
Thomas Pieters is in prime position to win the Czech Masters for a second time, the former Ryder Cup star reaching 16 under par through three rounds, leading by a shot going into the final 18 holes at the Albatross Resort in Prague.

Pieters, who won his maiden European Tour title in this event at this venue in 2015, was available at 18-1 ante-post for a repeat this week. No bigger than 7-4 is on offer going into Sunday as he bids to end a victory drought of almost three years.

The Belgian bomber has not triumphed as an individual since the 2016 Made In Denmark, although he did enjoy World Cup success alongside Thomas Detry at the end of last season.

Spanish rookie Adri Arnaus is alone in second place, with halfway pacesetter Edoardo Molinari sharing third place, a further shot off the pace. Two of the pre-tournament 14-1 co-favourites – Lee Westwood and Eddie Pepperell – missed the cut. Bernd Wiesberger is tied for 23rd, eight shots behind, while Erik van Rooyen shares seventh, three adrift of Pieters.

Leaderboard
-16 Thomas Pieters
-15 Adri Arnaus
-14 Rikard Karlberg, Hugo Leon, Robert Karlsson, Edoardo Molinari
-13 Erik van Rooyen, Kristoffer Reitan
-12 Jack Singh Brar, Mikko Korhonen, Liam Johnston, Sam Horsfield, Matthias Schwab

Best prices
7-4 T Pieters, 9-2 A Arnaus, 9 E Molinari, 12 E Van Rooyen, R Karlberg, 16 R Karlsson, 20 H Leon, 28 M Schwab, 33 K Reitan, 35 M Korhonen, 50 bar

Final-round advice
Thomas Pieters was the last name axed from the Racing Post Sport pre-tournament shortlist, the fact he has gone almost three years without a victory as an individual the main reason why he was finally scraped from the punting plans.

The Albatross Resort is a dream venue for the powerhouse and he followed up victory in 2015 with a runner-up finish in 2016. If his slump was to end anywhere, Prague was the prime candidate, but the basis for lacking faith remains with 18 holes to play. Getting in contention was the easy bit for Pieters – finishing the job and stabilising a faltering career was the tough bit.

The 27-year-old knows a player of his talent should be competing in Illinois this week – in the state where he went to university – in the BMW Championship FedEx Cup playoffs event. But a world ranking of 111 reflects two years of general struggle.

Whether to take a chance on Pieters at 18-1 was the fierce ante-post debate – and those who did should be giving themselves a hearty pat on the back – but it would be wrong to get involved now the horse has bolted. The 7-4 Pieters is fair and tempting, but the win drought may have created Sunday demons and preference is for the 9-2 about his chief pursuer.

Adri Arnaus was also close to pre-tournament selection at 55-1, but course inexperience was the justification for his omission. At a venue which has been used since 2014, the Spaniard was at a significant disadvantage in making his debut and an opening 71 left him tailed off.

Back-to-back rounds of 65 have seen Arnaus rocket up the leaderboard, though, and from just one shot behind this rising star could take some stopping. He has already finished second twice in a superb first year on the circuit – in the Kenya Open and the Andalucia Masters – and looks ready to claim silverware soon.

While Pieters could have been expected to start fast and possibly fade at the death, the opposite was the likely scenario for Arnaus as he tackled new terrain. With comfort levels increasing each day, the beast from Barcelona, who plays the game in a similar fashion to his compatriot Jon Rahm, can be fancied to post something close to a third consecutive 65.

The 12.15pm (UK and Ireland time) twoball between Pieters and Arnaus seems highly likely to deliver the champion. If Pieters digs deep and shows his mettle – and it must be said that he handled the ultimate pressure of a Ryder Cup debut in awesome fashion in 2016 – then he has the ability to kick clear in front and kickstart his career. But any sign of weakness should be pounced upon by Arnaus, arguably the best rookie on the Tour.

There are many chinks in the armour of the chasing pack and even though the leaderboard is congested, this could turn into a Pieters versus Arnaus duel in the forecast sunny, calm Prague conditions. An each-way bet on Arnaus (quarter the odds, first three) looks the most sensible option.

Recommendation
A Arnaus
2pts each-way 4-1 Betfair, BoyleSports, Sky Bet, Power

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