Confident Thorbjorn Olesen looks ready to rock Regnum once again

Starts 7.15am Thursday
Live on Sky Sports from 9am

Justin Rose goes to the well again in the Turkish Airlines Open, despite producing a tired, irritable and unimpressive weekend performance in the WGC-HSBC Champions in China.

A 15-hour flight from Shanghai to Antalya is unlikely to have recharged the batteries for Rose, who battled his way to FedEx Cup glory last month, then played a leading role in helping Europe regain the Ryder Cup, before hosting the British Masters. The defending champion looks awfully short in the betting.

Tommy Fleetwood, who missed tiddlers over the weekend in Shanghai and closed with a 75, also looks in desperate need of some time off. The English duo dominating the Turkish Airlines Open market both appear poor value options.

Palmer's top tip
Thorbjorn Olesen 14-1

Rory McIlroy played poorly alongside Thorbjorn Olesen in the opening session of the Ryder Cup, the experienced campaigner unable to help the rookie settle as they were thrashed by Dustin Johnson and Rickie Fowler, then the Dane was benched until the Sunday singles.

After all that effort to qualify for the team Olesen must have been wondering whether his Ryder Cup debut was going to be a forgettable washout. The mood changed on the final day, though, as Olesen tore into an illustrious opponent, destroying any American hopes of a comeback by serving up a 5&4 beating to Jordan Spieth.

Olesen could join the European celebrations knowing he had made a significant contribution and proved himself on the biggest stage of them all. Self-belief has hit an all-time high and the five-time European Tour champion will be relishing the chance to win a second Turkish Airlines title this week.

A missed cut in poor weather on an unsuitable course in the British Masters next time out is nothing to fret about, and Olesen recovered from an opening 75 to finish seventh in the HSBC Champions on Sunday. Xander Schauffele was the only player in the WGC field to outscore Olesen over the weekend.

At first glance, Regnum Carya may not look like natural terrain for an aggressive player like Olesen to succeed, but the thin trunks of the pine trees mean a route to the green can usually be fashioned even after loose drives. Olesen is the course-record holder – for both 18 and 72 holes – having crushed the field by three shots two years ago.

Olesen's European Tour ten-tournament form figures prior to his 2016 triumph were MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-50-MC-50, but he fell in love with Regnum Carya and fired a Friday 62. A brace of 66s over the weekend of his title defence meant he finished alone in fifth place and his Regnum stroke average is a remarkable 66.6.

Olesen has never arrived at this track in better form and will be licking his lips at the sunny, calm weather forecast. If he can shrug off the jet-lag and if his typically deadly putter is hot, Thunderbear should rock Regnum once again. The large, fast greens suit this dancefloor demon.

Next best
Thomas Pieters 30-1

Two years ago, Thomas Pieters played the role of Olesen, handing out a Ryder Cup Sunday singles drubbing to JB Holmes, but the Belgian failed to make the European team this time. Pieters has found some form over the last four months, though, and should soon re-establish himself as a member of the elite. Like Olesen, he is a superb putter.

Sixth place in the US PGA in the middle of August was a particularly bright effort from Pieters and 18th spot after an opening 75 was a decent warm-up for Turkey in Shanghai last week. Pieters enjoyed a hole-in-one in the HSBC and can approach Turkey, where he finished 11th on his only previous visit, in high spirits.

Other selections
Haotong Li 22-1
Jordan Smith 45-1

Haotong Li made an understandably slow start in the HSBC. The local hero was under huge pressure as the greatest golfer China has ever produced, chasing a US Tour card, and he slumped to five over par through eight holes. From there, though, he made 22 birdies, matched the weekend total of Olesen, and finished four under par for a share of 11th place.

Li made some mid-season equipment changes and in the last couple of months he has looked entirely comfortable with the contents of his bag. Fifth place in the Dunhill Links was followed by ninth in the British Masters. The short-game wizard closed with a 65 in the 2016 Turkish Airlines Open and finished second behind Olesen – an identical result is entirely feasible.

Further Turkish delight could come courtesy of Jordan Smith, who went down with glandular fever at this time last year. Smith was ninth at the halfway stage of his Regnum debut 12 months ago, but slumped to 42nd over the weekend, then withdrew from the Nedbank the following week as his condition worsened.

The illness hampered Smith for several months, but the last ten weeks have been a source of great encouragement. The Bath boy has not finished worse than 36th in his last six events, including third place in the British Masters at Walton Heath last time out. Smith is proven in this part of the world – his first Challenge Tour title came in Eygpt – and a second European Tour title would come as no surprise on Sunday.

Others to note
Matt Wallace
The four-time European Tour champion won two of his six Alps Tour titles in Egypt and Tunisia. He could be dangerous just north, but a final-round 79 in China on Sunday hints at burnout, so the Londoner is reluctantly left out of the staking plan.

Marcus Kinhult
The Swedish youngster is one of three dangerous debutants who are playing well enough to overcome the lack of experience. Kinhult has placed three times on the European Tour this year and is capable of a fourth in Turkey.

Tom Lewis
The Hertfordshire man is buzzing, with form figures of 1-3-1-10-5 (two Challenge Tour starts and three European Tour) and should make a bright Regnum debut.

Lucas Herbert
The Australian has finished second, seventh and third in his last three European Tour starts and clearly has bundles of potential. The Regnum fast-timer should improve as the week wears on.

Ryan Fox
The Kiwi powerhouse has posted six top-eight finishes in Rolex Series events – more than any other player – so these elite European Tour events seem to bring out the best in him.

Joost Luiten
The Dutchman made an excellent return to competition after five months out with injury, finishing 11th at Valderrama, but will he 'bounce' in Turkey?

Staking plan
T Olesen
3pts each-way 14-1 Power
T Pieters
2pts each-way 30-1 Betfair
H Li
2pts each-way 22-1 bet365, Betway
J Smith
1pt each-way 45-1 BoyleSports

The lowdown

Course Regnum Carya Golf & Spa Resort, Antalya, Turkey

Prize money €6.2m (€985,495 to the winner)

Length 7,159 yards

Par 71

Field 78

Course records – 72 holes 264 Thorbjorn Olesen (2016) 18 holes 62 Thorbjorn Olesen (2016)

Course winners taking part Thorbjorn Olesen, Justin Rose

When to bet By 7.15am Thursday

Where to watch Live on Sky Sports from 9am Thursday

Time difference Turkey is three hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week – WGC-HSBC Champions 1 X Schauffele (66-1), 2 T Finau (22-1), 3 J Rose (10-1), T4 K Aphibarnrat (150-1), A Putnam (225-1), 6 K Bradley (70-1)

Course overview The 2013 Turkish Airlines Open was the first European Tour event to be staged in Turkey. A mega-bucks matchplay gathering (Turkish Airlines World Golf Final) took place at Antalya Golf Club (The Sultan) in 2012, with Justin Rose beating Lee Westwood in the final. This event immediately became part of the Tour's Final Series in 2013. Regnum Carya, which has hosted the event the previous two years, is a tight, tree-lined track which runs through a pine forest, with plenty of greenside water hazards, but it is short by modern standards, and the tree trunks are thin, hence winning scores of 20 and 18 under par. The greens are large, undulating and fast. The toughest holes are the 228-yard par-three second and the 505-yard par-four tenth, but birdies should flow elsewhere. More than one million heather plants were added to the course to create a heathland feel. The course staged the Turkish Airlines Challenge on the Challenge Tour in 2010.

Story of last year Justin Rose birdied the final hole, the icing on the cake of a flawless four-under-par back-nine, to edge Dylan Frittelli and Nicolas Colsaerts by a shot

Weather forecast Hot, sunny skies and hardly any wind throughout

Type of player suited to challenge Sensible golf yields plenty of birdie chances at this venue, a relatively short layout with nine par-fours which are 455 yards or less. Those who hit it straight off the tee and avoid aqua on approach should succeed. A hot putter seems essential, too, given the perfect weather and inevitably low winning score

Key attribute Accuracy

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