Charl Schwartzel set for final-round duel with compatriot Louis Oosthuizen

Sky Sports Golf, 7.30am Sunday

Story so far
Louis Oosthuizen, the ante-post 7-1 South African Open favourite, will take a three-shot lead into the final round at the Randpark Club, Johannesburg.

Oosthuizen trailed compatriot Charl Schwartzel by two shots at the halfway stage of the tournament, but some sizzling Saturday putting saw the former Open champion overtake the former Masters champion at the top of the board.

Schwartzel, struggling badly with his own putting on the front nine, bogeyed two of his first three holes in round three to surrender his advantage. Both Oosthuizen and Schwartzel are seeking to win the South African Open for the first time.

Oosthuizen is 4-9 for victory, while Schwartzel has drifted from 2-1 to 6-1 after his disappointing third round. Matt Wallace, 12-1 second-favourite ante-post, is tied for second place alongside Schwartzel and sandwiched between the South Africans in the outright betting with 18 holes to play.

Leaderboard
-14 Louis Oosthuizen
-11 Charl Schwartzel, Madalitso Muthiya, Matt Wallace
-8 Branden Grace, Jbe Kruger, Mark Williams, Adilson Da Silva, Bernd Ritthammer, Jeff Winther, Robert MacIntyre, Ernie Els

Best prices
4-9 L Oosthuizen, 11-2 M Wallace, 6 C Schwartzel, 35 M Muthiya, 40 B Grace, 80 E Els, 150 bar

Final-day advice
Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel had hugely differing fortunes on the greens in round three – the former was holing everything he looked at, while the latter frittered shots away – and Schwartzel will be hoping it is his turn to carry a hot flat stick on Sunday.

Schwartzel putted better on the back nine, so can be expected to make a stronger start on the dancefloors in round four, but Oosthuizen is thrilled with the way he is rolling his rock and will be difficult to catch if producing putting of the same standard to the finish line.

The concern for favourite backers, though, is the driver. Oosthuizen pulled a lot of drives way left and it was only his short-game heroics which allowed him to take control of the event. If the leader brings a misbehaving Big Dog to Randpark again on Sunday, the chasing pack will have plenty of hope in their hearts.

Oosthuizen had the Nedbank Challenge title in his grasp in his last tournament, enjoying home support and looking set to win 'Africa's Major', but could not get the job done. He was leading by one shot with four holes to play, but finished bogey, par, par, double-bogey while Lee Westwood went par, birdie, birdie, par in the same stretch to finish four shots ahead of Oosthuizen. The Nedbank scars may have a role to play if Oosthuizen gets embroiled in a tight joust for the South African Open title over the closing holes.

Schwartzel, who was five shots ahead with five holes to play in the 2015 edition before losing a playoff, will know he is still well in the hunt and may prefer the role of coming from behind. Although Matt Wallace has quickly built a reputation as a 'closer' of tournaments – winning three times this year – it is disrespectful of bookmakers to have Schwartzel as third-favourite in his home city.

The title looks between Oosthuizen, Schwartzel and Wallace – and that may end up as the tricast. Schwartzel, an ante-post Racing Post Sport recommendation at 18-1, looks the best value of the three at 6-1 for anyone looking to get involved at this stage.

The final threeball is scheduled to tee off at 9.20am local time (7.20am UK and Ireland time) in cloudy, breezy weather.

Outright recommendation
C Schwartzel without L Oosthuizen
1pt 15-8 Betfair, Power, Sky Bet

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