Canadian Open: Steve Palmer's betting preview, lowdown & TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, midday Thursday

Four of the top six players in the world have been attracted to Hamilton Country Club, using the Canadian Open as a final warm-up for the third Major of the season, the US Open at Pebble Beach.

Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas are all north of the US border, but Major glory in California next week is the priority. Of the quartet, defending champion Johnson, who has Canadian family, is the most appealing betting proposition for Hamilton, but he has just split from his coach Claude Harmon and can be left alone at a best-price 11-2.

Sergio Garcia and Matt Kuchar are two tempting options well suited to this assignment, but both missed the cut last time out. Jim Furyk, Players Championship runner-up in March, was Hamilton champion in 2006.

Palmer's top tip
Shane Lowry 40-1

A fresh chapter has started in the life and career of Shane Lowry in recent weeks, and the popular Irishman has been all smiles since leaving Florida to base himself in Dublin. Living full-time in the States did not improve his US Tour performance, so he has relocated back to the country he loves, looking to make a push for a Ryder Cup debut in 2020.

A happy Lowry has greatly impressed in his last two tournaments, building on his magnificent Abu Dhabi Championship triumph in his opening event of the year, and he looks a lively runner at a European-style venue this week.

The tight, tree-lined Hamilton Country Club, designed by legendary English architect Harry Colt, resembles some of the wonderful layouts Colt crafted in Surrey. The most famous of these is the West Course at Wentworth, where Lowry has performed consistently well, finishing fourth in 2011, 12th in 2013, second in 2014, sixth in 2015, sixth in 2017 and 15th last year.

The most prestigious title Lowry has won – the 2015 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational – came on a tree-lined par-70 Firestone track which demands supreme driving. He threatened to win the US Open the following year at Oakmont Country Club, another demanding par-70 where inaccuracy off the tee is severely punished.

Small greens suit Lowry, who has magic hands and is awesome around the dancefloors, but inconsistent with putter in hand, highlighted by his third-place finish in the Heritage last month, where he was third in the scrambling stats but 49th for putts per greens in regulation. The Harbour Town Links is a good fit for him and the suspicion is Hamilton CC, especially with some forecast weekend wind, will also appeal to the four-time European Tour champion.

Lowry finished 12th in the Canadian Open last year, a strong result which came after a missed cut in the Open. This time, he has arrived at a different Ontario venue carrying more confidence, having tied for eighth place in the US PGA last time out. That was an incredible effort after an opening-round 75 on his Bethpage Black debut.

Lowry outscored Koepka by three shots over the final three rounds of the US PGA – only Dustin Johnson bettered Lowry from Friday through Sunday – and the Clara-born swinger can upstage the big names in Canada. He used to put himself under too much pressure in Stateside events, but is playing with freedom at the moment, not bothered about having a US Tour card, looking to concentrate on the European Tour next year, so he can earn a place on the Ryder Cup team of his compatriot, Padraig Harrington.

Next best
Webb Simpson 22-1

Hamilton is about tee-to-green accuracy – powerhouses do not have a significant edge – and former US Open champion Webb Simpson should thrive. The greenkeepers will have tried to make their rough as juicy as possible to give those competing at Pebble next week a decent workout.

Simpson's maiden US Tour title came on a short, tight, par-70 – Sedgefield Country Club – which has similarities to Hamilton. And his 2012 US Open triumph was on another short, tight, tree-lined, par-70 – the Olympic Club.

Simpson has taken his game to a new level in the last couple of years, comfortably winning at Sawgrass and churning out rock-solid results of 35-37-33-20-10-12-19-5-29 in the last nine Majors, most at venues which favour bigger hitters. Fifth spot at Augusta was a remarkable effort. Hamilton is a much better fit and the consistent grinder looks a surefire contender.

Other selections
Henrik Stenson 35-1
Danny Willett 100-1
Aaron Wise 70-1

Three Europeans are in the staking plan this week, with Henrik Stenson and Danny Willett also fancied to take a shine to the Colt design. Stenson's love affair with three-woods off the tee has been seeing him left behind on longer courses, but Hamilton sets up wonderfully for the Swede. Sedgefield CC was the scene of his last US Tour victory, the 2017 Wyndham Championship, and the 2016 Open champ should love the similar feel of Hamilton.

Stenson tops the US Tour strokes-gained-on-approach statistics and should get back to winning ways once his putter warms up, while Willett is seeing all-round improvement after a quiet spell. He moved his young family to Orlando at the start of the year and it appears the settling-in process is over, with his last two tournaments producing solid course debuts – 41st at Bethpage and 27th at Muirfield Village.

Willett's move Stateside had much to do with the coach he credits with reviving his career – Sean Foley – and the pair are clearly getting results together. Victory in the DP World Tour Championship in November ended the trophy drought of the 2016 Masters champion and further success seems likely. He has twice finished in the top five at Wentworth.

Complete the staking plan with Aaron Wise, the 2018 US Tour Rookie of the Year. The 22-year-old started his professional career on the Canadian Tour, winning the Syncrude Oil Country Championship in just his second start on that circuit, posting seven top-15 finishes in seven starts before moving on to the Web.com Tour. This class act will be confident on his return to Canada.

Others to note
Scott Piercy
The 2012 Hamilton champion has been in good nick, finishing third in the Heritage, second in the Byron Nelson, 41st at Bethpage and 19th at Colonial. He looks an obvious dangerman.

Corey Conners
The Canadian is an accurate driver who should enjoy Hamilton. He won the Texas Open in April and looks the best of the home hopes.

Kramer Hickok
The straight-hitting Texan won twice on the Canadian Tour in 2017 and could threaten the Hamilton places in his US Tour rookie season.

Roger Sloan
The 32-year-old Canadian, winner in his homeland on the Web.com Tour, has shown glimpses of form this year, with 12th place in the Desert Classic followed by second in Puerto Rico, and there was no disgrace in 31st spot at Colonial last time out.

Kevin Tway
The 2018 Safeway Open champion is bidding to follow his father Bob, who won the 2003 Canadian Open, on to the Hamilton honours board. A decent spin (19th) at Colonial gives Kevin a squeak.

Austin Cook
The accurate Arkansas man has found some form and looks a good fit for Hamilton. He was competing in a US Open sectional qualifier on Monday, but it was at Rattlesnake Point, Ontario, so he has not had to travel far.

Staking plan
S Lowry
2.5pts each-way 40-1 Sky Bet
W Simpson
2.5pts each-way 22-1 Betfair
H Stenson
2pts each-way 35-1 Betfred
D Willett
1pt each-way 100-1 Betway
A Wise
1pt each-way 70-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

The lowdown

Course Hamilton Golf & Country Club, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
Prize money $7.6m ($1.116m to the winner)
Length 6,967 yards
Par 70
Field 156
Course records - 72 holes 263 Scott Piercy (2012) 18 holes 62 Scott Piercy (2012), Tim Clark (2012)

Course winners taking part Jim Furyk, Scott Piercy

When to bet By midday Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from midday Thursday

Time difference Canada is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Memorial Tournament 1 P Cantlay (16-1) 2 A Scott (35-1), 3 M Kaymer (175-1), 4 K Streelman (125-1), 5 M Leishman (80-1), 6 H Matsuyama (22-1), T7 J Dufner (110-1), J Spieth (22-1)

Course overview Glen Abbey was the regular port of call for the Canadian Open, but that venue seems set to be turned into real estate and consigned to history. Hamilton CC is the new home of the tournament, having hosted the event in 2003, 2006 and 2012. The Harry Colt design, a short, tight, parkland layout with healthy rough and small greens, opened in 1915. It features just one par-five on each nine – the 542-yard fifth and the 550-yard 17th. The 317-yard par-four fifth is an obvious birdie chance, along with the 388-yard par-four 12th. The four par-threes are tough, particularly the 224-yard sixth and the 236-yard 13th. It is an undulating track, with lots of downhill tee-shots and uphill approaches. Seventeen under par was the winning score the last time Hamilton staged this event and it is a fairly comfortable test for the US Tour's finest. The Canadian Open has been in a post-Open slot for the last 12 years, but has been moved forward from July to June

Story of last year Dustin Johnson dominated in what is likely to be the final Canadian Open at Glen Abbey, registering a three-shot success over Korean duo Byeong Hun An and Whee Kim

Weather forecast Some showers are likely early in the week, before the tournament closes with three days of sunshine. Calm on Thursday and Friday, before some moderate breezes at the weekend

Type of player suited to the challenge This is a classic, parkland test, and more of a test of accuracy over power. But power is of great benefit on the three long par-threes, and on the numerous uphill approaches. Strong ball-strikers should prevail

Key attribute Accuracy

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