BMW Championship: Steve Palmer's halfway analysis, third-round tips

TV: Sky Sports Golf, Saturday 5.30pm

Hideki Matsuyama tops the leaderboard at the halfway stage of the BMW Championship, the Japanese ace reaching 12 under par through 36 holes at Medinah Country Club, Illinois.

Matsuyama, winless since the 2017 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational almost exactly two years ago, was a pre-tournament 50-1 chance for BMW glory. He is a best-price 11-2 with Betway going into the weekend.

FedEx Cup leader, Brooks Koepka, bogeyed two of his final three holes in round two, meaning he has a seven-shot deficit to overcome over Matsuyama in the BMW. The projected FedEx standings for next week's Tour Championship finale at East Lake, though, still have Koepka in pole position, with Matsuyama in second.

Koepka needs a low third round to get back into contention for a BMW victory and he has drifted to 40-1, but Matsuyama has a wealth of high-class talent lurking just behind him on the leaderboard.

Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau are tied for second place, just a shot off the pace, while Justin Thomas, who has been swinging superbly in recent weeks, has putted strongly at Medinah to leave himself just two behind.

Rory McIlroy is tied for 11th place, four shots behind, while Jon Rahm is a further shot adrift. Matsuyama has the tee-to-green game to make mincemeat of Medinah, but his typically fragile putting means punters are unlikely to be rushing to take the 11-2.

Anyone getting involved at this stage should consider the 5-1 about Cantlay and the 6-1 about Thomas. The American duo have laid an excellent foundation for the weekend and both are brimming with confidence. Thomas has finally started rolling his rock with authority and overcame a slow start to round two – two over par through three – to haul himself back into the thick of things.

Third-round twoball punters are pointed towards McIlroy, who can see off Kevin Kisner in their 6pm (UK and Ireland time) contest. Kisner, a short-hitter who can get demoralised on long layouts like Medinah, fired some uncharacteristically destructive iron-shots in round two. He found water off the tee at the 13th and was two over par for his final six holes.

McIlroy, bogey-free from the second hole onwards and three under par for his final five holes, appears to have found a groove on a course he relishes and the Northern Irishman seems likely to get himself deep into contention for the Sunday denouement.

Jason Kokrak, excellent aside from a triple-bogey seven at the driveable par-four 15th in round two, can outgun C.T Pan in the 5.20pm contest. The final twoball of Matsuyama and Cantlay is scheduled to tee off at 7pm. A sunny, calm day is forecast for the most part, but there is a threat of thunderstorms.

Twoballs recommendations
R McIlroy
4pts 4-6 Hills

J Kokrak
2pts 5-6 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

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