BMW Championship: Steve Palmer's final-round analysis, free tips, TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Sunday

Story so far
Justin Thomas conjured a sensational 11-under-par third-round 61 at Medinah Country Club to take full control of the BMW Championship and set himself up for a second FedEx Cup title.

Thomas made two eagles and eight birdies in an explosive burst of scoring, leaving the rest of the elite field in his wake. He opened his sizzling Saturday with five consecutive birdies, then got within two feet of the hole in two mighty blows at the 577-yard par-five tenth. A holed second shot at the 476-yard par-four 16th saw the 2017 FedEx Cup champion bound clear of his rivals.

Thomas put on a ball-striking clinic, missing a putt from five feet at the sixth and from seven feet at the ninth, threatening the second 59 of his PGA Tour career. To do so on a par-72 measuring more than 7,600 yards was awesome.

The popular Kentucky man, 16-1 at the start of the week, is no bigger than 1-8 to successfully convert his six-shot lead into victory. Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay are tied for second place.

FedEx Cup leader Brooks Koepka has endured a miserable week with the putter, languishing in 43rd spot, opening the door to his pursuers in the $15m seasonal cash race. Thomas is projected to take over as FedEx No. 1, with Koepka dropping to second.

Leaderboard
-21 Justin Thomas
-15 Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay
-14 Rory Sabbatini
-13 Jon Rahm
-12 Brandt Snedeker, Corey Conners, Lucas Glover

Best prices
1-10 J Thomas, 14 P Cantlay, 18 T Finau, 40 J Rahm, 55 R Sabbatini, 150 B Snedeker, 200 bar

Final-round advice
There are few more mesmerising sights in golf than Justin Thomas in full flow – the pint-sized powerhouse is an ultra-aggressive firecracker who has carded more super-low rounds than anyone else on the PGA Tour over the last few years.

Thomas used turbo in round three to take a stranglehold of the BMW Championship and he should be able to cruise home in smoother fashion in round four. He is a prolific champion used to converting leads – Thomas has won nine PGA Tour titles in less than four years – and the fact he already has a FedEx Cup success under his belt means the bigger picture of that competition will have no negative impact on his thinking. Throw in an excellent, vastly experienced caddie in Jimmy Johnson, and the 1-8 quotes are understandable.

With isolated thunderstorms set to linger in the Medinah area all Sunday, PGA Tour chiefs have tinkered with the tee-times and put the players out in threeballs, so the biggest challenge for Thomas may be the potential for a stop-start final round. It will be the same for everyone, though, and the pursuers who need to produce a perfect round to beat Thomas will probably find the weather even more annoying.

Racing Post Sport followers are in a strong position, with 14-1 headline selection Thomas well clear and 22-1 each-way investment Patrick Cantlay sharing second place. Jon Rahm, alone in fifth, has the potential to card something in the low 60s to threaten the applecart, while Tony Finau could also be a factor if he holes a few early putts. The likelihood is, though, that Rahm has left himself too much to do and Finau's ugly putting stroke will let him down.

Cantlay, who has got himself in the thick of things without having his A-game, makes hardly any serious errors and has total focus over every shot. If this turns into a Thomas procession, expect Cantlay to maintain concentration regardless, the Californian knowing that fourth place in the FedEx standings is a live target. That would give Cantlay a decent crack at winning the big one next week at East Lake.

Most bookmakers have issued a 'without Thomas' market and Cantlay looks a fair bet at 2-1, while final-round threeball punters are pointed towards Rahm, who should relish the chance to go into all-out-attack mode on a long, soft track and can leave playing partners Rory Sabbatini and Brandt Snedeker behind in the process.
The final threeball of Thomas, Cantlay and Finau is scheduled on the tee at 6.20pm UK and Ireland time.

Outright recommendation
P Cantlay without J Thomas
2pts 2-1 BoyleSports, Hills

Threeballs recommendation
J Rahm
2pts 5-4 bet365

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